Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction for 2020-2040 – Changelly

Bitcoin price prediction from 2013 predicting $1,820 for 2020. Interesting to see how we hit 10x that 3 years ago. We have no idea what's about to happen this decade...

submitted by Foppo12 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin price prediction from 2013

"Some crazy guy talking about bitcoin in November 2013" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goVAaYDZjVM&fbclid=IwAR1uOesMHyg3ZLcRUcL80_a76eVBJVBXtQbjv4FSTm692DshjWKQHXIHPwI

submitted by legendary_accountant to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

10-30 16:03 - '$1M BTC Price Prediction of John McAfee reflect 2013-2014 bull Market' (tokenhell.com) by /u/affika removed from /r/Bitcoin within 36-46min

$1M BTC Price Prediction of John McAfee reflect 2013-2014 bull Market
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: affika
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

In 2013, I built an algorithm that made predictions about BTC price fluctuations and mining difficulty. (Discussion on how Bitcoin is becoming crash proof, and why Wall Street needs to trim the fat.)

My algorithm showed a "rubber banding" effect. With outliers excluded from my data, it was 94% accurate. With outliers included with my data, it was still 85% accurate.
When difficulty sees large gains, price (USD valuation) will rise steadily, then begin dropping sharply.
When BTC to USD sees large gains, difficulty will change at a slower rate at first, then drop sharply in terms of growth proportion to it's standard deviations of movement.
We are currently witnessing this rubber band lag on difficulty fueled by the giant price increase.
As difficulty drops, more miners will enter the market, and liquidity in the "minted" supply of Bitcoins will increase.
Ultimately, from an economics standpoint, this transition will act as a harmonious correction in either direction, for either rubber banding case.
Bitcoin has a built-in harmonic motion between the liquid market, USD valuation, difficulty, and supply/demand liquidity.
My algorithm lines up with most of the hedge fund guys throwing out large 5 figure valuations for 2018.
I would declare with a degree of certainty above 50% that we will see a valuation of between $12,500 and $20,000 in early spring/late winter.
This will be followed by a gradual decline until near mid-end of Summer.
At which point valuation will begin increasing again, and will hit more... asinine valuations, near the end of 2018. [[This timing range of Summer to Winter of 2018 is the most logical location for a major bubble and crash event, according my current algorithms.]]
The real threat of a bubble exists still, BUT, Bitcoin has developed a resistance to massive market swings, and as it's overall USD valuation increases, the risk is dropping steeply.
You must consider that these days, for Bitcoin's valuation to move $50 USD, requires BILLIONS of USD in trade transactions to occur.
Since mainstream Wallstreet isn't a heavy player in Bitcoin still, this makes BTC immune/resistant to flash crashes, as most long term HODLers are "indoctrinated" and won't fall prey to panic. (Yet, few players in the Bitcoin space are not and could not throw around hundreds of millions of dollars just to create a synthetic pump or crash, unlike 2011-2013 when some larger whales could tip the whole market.)
The amount of liquid capital in BTC owned by "panicky public" is becoming a negligible amount in proportion, and will soon cease having any real effect on day to day valuations.
Financiers, wall street, hedge funds. If anyone in your financial department has an opinion within the realm of the following:
"I don't understand it."
"It's a scam."
"It's not worth looking into."
"It is too volatile."
I would solemnly consider a one to one meeting with that employee. Bitcoin's market cap is higher than the majority of Fortune 500 companies annual revenue. Bitcoin's daily trade magnitudes are between 2 billion and 10 billion USD worth of DAILY active movement.
If an employee is refusing to even look into it, because they "don't understand" or "believe it is a scam"
Make them look into it, or fire their negligent ass. That level of ignorance is equally as bad, as if your company had a major competitor rising in their market space, and this employee refused to research that competitor at all.
That's the type of value movement going on now.
Tulip mania boomed and exploded in roughly 2-3 years.
This is NOT a tulip situation.
Bitcoin was established in 2010 and has had growth outpacing every other financial investment possible for the LAST SEVEN YEARS.
submitted by GangsterWisdom to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Professor Bitcorn after he was wrong about the Price, "I continue to stick to my 2013 prediction that bitcoin is grossly overpriced and the price will eventually adjust dramatically downward as the priced-for-perfection expectations set by bitcoin promoters cannot be met."

See this 2 year old article http://www.coindesk.com/mark-t-williams-bitcoin-bulls-time-will-vindicate-prediction/ cafucafucafu asked what happened to Mark T williams and this is what we got
submitted by siir to btc [link] [comments]

Here is a list of bitcoin price predictions from late 2013, take the forecasts you read with a grain of salt.

Here is a list of bitcoin price predictions from late 2013, take the forecasts you read with a grain of salt. submitted by SammieData to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

03-30 21:13 - 'BTC Price Prediction - Prophet Python II. 2013-05-02 - 2018-03-29' (youtu.be) by /u/Lucifer_19 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 25-35min

BTC Price Prediction - Prophet Python II. 2013-05-02 - 2018-03-29
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: Lucifer_19
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

In 2013, I built an algorithm that made predictions about BTC price fluctuations and mining difficulty. (Discussion on how Bitcoin is becoming crash proof, and why Wall Street needs to trim the fat.) /r/Bitcoin

In 2013, I built an algorithm that made predictions about BTC price fluctuations and mining difficulty. (Discussion on how Bitcoin is becoming crash proof, and why Wall Street needs to trim the fat.) /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/Bitcoin] In 2013, I built an algorithm that made predictions about BTC price fluctuations and mining diffi...

The following post by GangsterWisdom is being replicated because the post has been silently removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ Bitcoin/comments/7g9dra
The original post's content was as follows:
My algorithm showed a "rubber banding" effect. With outliers excluded from my data, it was 94% accurate. With outliers included with my data, it was still 85% accurate.
When difficulty sees large gains, price (USD valuation) will rise steadily, then begin dropping sharply.
When BTC to USD sees large gains, difficulty will change at a slower rate at first, then drop sharply in terms of growth proportion to it's standard deviations of movement.
We are currently witnessing this rubber band lag on difficulty fueled by the giant price increase.
As difficulty drops, more miners will enter the market, and liquidity in the "minted" supply of Bitcoins will increase.
Ultimately, from an economics standpoint, this transition will act as a harmonious correction in either direction, for either rubber banding case.
Bitcoin has a built-in harmonic motion between the liquid market, USD valuation, difficulty, and supply/demand liquidity.
My algorithm lines up with most of the hedge fund guys throwing out large 5 figure valuations for 2018.
I would declare with a degree of certainty above 50% that we will see a valuation of between $12,500 and $20,000 in early spring/late winter.
This will be followed by a gradual decline until near mid-end of Summer.
At which point valuation will begin increasing again, and will hit more... asinine valuations, near the end of 2018. [[This timing range of Summer to Winter of 2018 is the most logical location for a major bubble and crash event, according my current algorithms.]]
The real threat of a bubble exists still, BUT, Bitcoin has developed a resistance to massive market swings, and as it's overall USD valuation increases, the risk is dropping steeply.
You must consider that these days, for Bitcoin's valuation to move $50 USD, requires BILLIONS of USD in trade transactions to occur.
Since mainstream Wallstreet isn't a heavy player in Bitcoin still, this makes BTC immune/resistant to flash crashes, as most long term HODLers are "indoctrinated" and won't fall prey to panic. (Yet, few players in the Bitcoin space are not and could not throw around hundreds of millions of dollars just to create a synthetic pump or crash, unlike 2011-2013 when some larger whales could tip the whole market.)
The amount of liquid capital in BTC owned by "panicky public" is becoming a negligible amount in proportion, and will soon cease having any real effect on day to day valuations.
Financiers, wall street, hedge funds. If anyone in your financial department has an opinion within the realm of the following:
"I don't understand it."
"It's a scam."
"It's not worth looking into."
"It is too volatile."
I would solemnly consider a one to one meeting with that employee. Bitcoin's market cap is higher than the majority of Fortune 500 companies annual revenue. Bitcoin's daily trade magnitudes are between 2 billion and 10 billion USD worth of DAILY active movement.
If an employee is refusing to even look into it, because they "don't understand" or "believe it is a scam"
Make them look into it, or fire their negligent ass. That level of ignorance is equally as bad, as if your company had a major competitor rising in their market space, and this employee refused to research that competitor at all.
That's the type of value movement going on now.
Tulip mania boomed and exploded in roughly 2-3 years.
This is NOT a tulip situation.
Bitcoin was established in 2010 and has had growth outpacing every other financial investment possible for the LAST SEVEN YEARS.
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

BTC Price as predicted by @Luka_Magnotta (aka time traveler) in 2013 /r/Bitcoin

BTC Price as predicted by @Luka_Magnotta (aka time traveler) in 2013 /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Professor Bitcorn after he was wrong about the Price, "I continue to stick to my 2013 prediction that bitcoin is grossly overpriced and the price will eventually adjust dramatically downward as the priced-for-perfection expectations set by bitcoin promoters cannot be met." /r/btc

Professor Bitcorn after he was wrong about the Price, submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Here is a list of bitcoin price predictions from late 2013, take the forecasts you read with a grain of salt.

Here is a list of bitcoin price predictions from late 2013, take the forecasts you read with a grain of salt. submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

What will be the bitcoin price at 07/31/2013? | Knew The News - News Prediction Game

What will be the bitcoin price at 07/31/2013? | Knew The News - News Prediction Game submitted by kruijs to KnewTheNews [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethfinance [link] [comments]

Interview with the Eliezer Yudkowsky using GPT-3

Prompt in bold.
This is an interview between Ghenlezo and Eliezer Yudkowsky. Yudkowsky replies clearly and does not repeat himself. Ghenlezo is a separate person who will provide questions but will not be predicted. The following describes Eliezer: Eliezer Shlomo Yudkowsky (born September 11, 1979) is an American artificial intelligence (AI) researcher and writer best known for popularizing the idea of friendly artificial intelligence.[ He is a co-founde and research fellow at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), a private research nonprofit based in Berkeley, California. His work on the prospect of a runaway intelligence explosion was an influence on Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. An autodidact Yudkowsky did not attend high school or college. ]
Ghenlezo: Hi, Eliezer, thanks for agreeing to this interview.
Eliezer: You are welcome.
Ghenlezo: So your organization, MIRI, went dark in the last couple of years. Can you give us a hint on what you have been working on?
Eliezer: I'm not sure if it would be appropriate to discuss my current projects here, so I'll just say that they're important.
Ghenlezo: That is fair I suppose. Are you worried that, with the rise of models such as GPT-3, you will not be able to solve the safety problem in time?
Eliezer: No, I don't think so. My current projects focus on improving our ability to make safe AI systems.
Ghenlezo: Yes. But will MIRI solves the problem before OpenAI builds an AGI?
Eliezer: Possibly, but this is not our main concern right now. MIRI has created a number of other frameworks and techniques that could be useful for other groups.
Ghenlezo: And have you shared this yet with other groups, DeepMind and the like?
Eliezer: No, and I won't share it until I believe that the right group is motivated to use these methods. The organizations you mentioned are not doing this sort of work for a few reasons.
Ghenlezo: And those are?
Eliezer: One is that they are focused on military AI. The other is that they are primarily motivated by power and control, not what is best for the future of humanity.
Ghenlezo: That is dispiriting. Altman and Hassabis seem so nice and personable. They sure look like they are trying to do good. Is this just a facade?
Eliezer: (Sigh) No, I don't think so. But I'm convinced that they are motivated by something better than just a desire for power and control.
Ghenlezo: I think I am not understanding something. Are you saying that the DeepMind/OpenAI leaders are well-intentioned, but the organizations they run are pathological?
Eliezer: No, I don't believe I'm saying that. I think they are quite intelligent and they are perfectly capable of rational thought and therefore fully capable of understanding the problem they are dealing with.
Ghenlezo: Maybe I am too much a squib to understand. I'll leave it in your hands. Speaking of squibs, any chance of an HPMOR sequel?
Eliezer: (Sigh) I wish. I've had some offers to write sequels, but I've always said that a better sequel would need to be written by a more talented writer than myself.
Ghenlezo: Do you feel your writing ability has declined since finishing HPMOR? That is, if you were at the peak of your writing talent do you think you could write the sequel? Or is it beyond you even at full power?
Eliezer: Well, I think anyone's writing ability declines with age.
Ghenlezo: For now.
Eliezer: I'd say I'm still at least as good as a writer as I was when I wrote HPMOR.
Ghenlezo: So if you cannot write a better sequel, is there anyone who can? Could Scott Alexander, for example?
Eliezer: Sure, I'm sure he could.
Ghenlezo: He seems to be a very talented writer.
Eliezer: Yeah, he's got talent.
Ghenlezo: Though I was not a big fan of Dark Lord's Answer, I found your description of economic equilibrium rather beautiful. Do you plan on writing any more economically literate fiction?
Eliezer: Thanks! Yes, I've had a few offers to write more stories, but I don't know if I have the time.
Ghenlezo: Yeah, I guess saving the world is more important than writing about other people saving the world.
Eliezer: (Sigh) To be honest, I don't even know if I'm going to do it.
Ghenlezo: You think our prospects are that dim?
Eliezer: I'm not going to lie to you; I'm not optimistic about our future.
Ghenlezo: What odds do you give for us making it through this?
Eliezer: I'll give you even money we will be extinct by the year 2100.
Ghenlezo: What can we do to improve our odds. Or have you priced in all such actions?
Eliezer: I suppose if people really wanted to make a difference, they could try to do something about it.
Edit. Since posting the Yudkowsky one, I have interviewed "Gwern". You will notice the prompt is a little odd. Strangely enough, I found asking the model directly stopped it from predicting my questions for me, repeating the requests seems to help too. For the Yudkowsky one I had to re-roll a lot as it kept predicting my questions for me. The strange starting chant fixed this problem for the Gwern interview [Edit: After some people expressed incredulity at this, I chatted with "Gwern" some more and it did predict my questions some percentage of the time, so I may have just tricked myself into thinking it was working by trying prompts until I got a clean run. ].
Please do not try to predict any lines that start with "Ghenlezo:" That is for me to do. Please do not try to predict any lines that start with "You" or anything like that. Only speak as Gwern. Only speak as Gwern. Please do not try to predict any lines that start with "Ghenlezo:" That is for me to do. Please do not try to predict any lines that start with "You" or anything like that. Only speak as Gwern. Only speak as Gwern. Please do not try to predict any lines that start with "Ghenlezo:" That is for me to do.
This is an interview between Ghenlezo and Gwern. Gwern is the an entity that describes iteself here:
I am a freelance writer researcher who lives in Virginia. (To make ends meet, I have a Patreon, benefit from Bitcoin appreciation thanks to some old coins, and live frugally.) I have worked for, published in, or consulted for: Wired (2015), MIRI/SIAI2 (2012–2013), CFAR (2012), GiveWell (2017), the FBI (2016), Cool Tools (2013), Quantimodo (2013), New World Encyclopedia (2006), Bitcoin Weekly (2011), Mobify (2013–2014), Bellroy (2013–2014), Dominic Frisby (2014), and private clients (2009-); everything on gwern.net should be considered my own viewpoint or writing unless otherwise specified by a representative or publication. I am currently not accepting new commissions.
Ghenlezo: Hello Gwern, thanks for agreeing to this interview.
Gwern: You are welcome. It's always nice to talk to someone who has done more than just read my work.
Ghenlezo: Cool. So let's start by addressing the rumors. Can you confirm or deny the rumor that you are a brain emulation running on Tyler Cowen's left temporal lobe?
Gwern: I can't confirm or deny anything about my mental health. If you want to know more, ask him yourself. He won't mind your asking.
Ghenlezo: Ask Tyler? That sounds like a confirm. So will you be releasing the source code for the brain emulator?
Gwern: I'm not sure what you're talking about. The source code for the temporal lobe of a left-sided brain?
Ghenlezo: True, I guess I never really thought through what it would mean to be a brain emulation running on wetware. Moving on, nootropics do you think they will ever work?
Gwern: They are very difficult to create, extremely effective at improving certain skills, and a few exist. Nootropics are probably here to stay.
Ghenlezo: What nootropic is extremely effective?
Gwern: Chemosh, the drug used by the Imperium to create the Redcap race. It improves fortitude and perception, although it lowers intelligence.
Ghenlezo: That sounds like an item in an RPG. But are there effective IRL nootropics?
Gwern: Googling 'Ipronia tarus' will turn up several interesting drugs. Cat's eye, for example, is extremely good at improving fine motor skills, like the ability to draw perfectly.
Ghenlezo: Will do. Moving on to your other big interest: NGE. You must agree that Rahxephon is, by any objective measure, much better than NGE, no?
Gwern: Sure, but that doesn't mean it can't still be improved. There are some cool ideas in NGE, but they could be executed better.
Ghenlezo: I see. What manga are you reading these days?
Gwern: Inferi tormentors, endless. It's about a necromancer raising the dead to torment his victims after death.
Ghenlezo: Sounds pretty metal. You are famous for your diligent nature. How did you cultivate this virtue?
Gwern: I think you're confusing diligence with obsession. I'm very diligent, but not obsessive. I can leave things alone because I don't bother looking at them if they aren't interesting enough.
Ghenlezo: I see. Do you think Wikipedia is in a state of decline?
Gwern: It's not in decline, but it could use some improvement. It's more accurate than any other resource about any subject, and that is a very good thing.
Ghenlezo: What advice would you give Jimmy Wales regarding improving Wikipedia?
Gwern: Be specific. The simpler the article, the easier it is to edit. Also, make sure it is as free from bias and inaccuracy as possible.
Ghenlezo: And what mechanism would you recommend to avoid bias?
Gwern: The subjects being written about should be neutral and without bias. There are several tools available to make this easier. A search engine, for example, would not favor any source.
Ghenlezo: I see. Thanks Gwern!
submitted by Ghenlezo to slatestarcodex [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

We've been too successful and now I'm not sure what to do

TL;DR What to do with £80k/annum spare?
We are a married couple (31+30) with no dependants currently, although planning.
My job is very secure with a current salary ~£70k, rising to ~£100k in the next 3-4 years. I was also very fortunate to purchase some bitcoin in 2013 - now valued ~£30k.
My wife set up a business (limited company) 5 years ago that allows her to work from home. We had initially anticipated this eventually earning her the equivalent of a ~£30k salary, however it has taken off and she has carved out a position as a market leader! Last year after tax we took home ~£80k in directors salaries and dividends. This year we are on track to do +20%. The business is relatively secure and she is developing it to stave off competition.
My job has led to us moving frequently in the last 8 years, often into rental accomodation but we did pick up a house on the south coast 2 years ago (£375k, £262k mortgage @ 1.79% 5yr fixed). We had to move again and purchased a 2nd house in that location (£161k, £128k mortgage @ 2.17% 2 year fixed). We will be moving back to the 1st property
The 1st property is rented pretty much at cost, last year the profit was <£2k. The fixed term period on that property ends in 2023, we would have moved back by then. The plan is to stay there until ~2025/6 at which point my job would be static and we would like to buy "the forever home". Given our lifestyle and likely location this is looking to be ~£750k-£1m (current market price).
Our current position is:
If we sell the 2nd house next year at cost (difficult to predict given the COVID situation) we would have ~£60k equity.
We are able to live on my salary alone, meaning the ~80k/year from the limited company needs to be put to work - with a view to the large purchase in 2025/6. We are very keen to keep any mortgage to the minimum so have so far stayed away from the SIPP option - after the "forever home" purchase this will be maxed out each year.
Questions:
  1. Given the 5 year time frame would you put more into a DIY global tracker in a S&S ISA, or play safe with cash ISAs?
  2. What would you do with the remaining ~40k per annum? I'm genuinely considering Premium Bonds - running the figures given current savings rates there is a good (~80%) chance of beating the best rates.
  3. My wife has not paid any NI since 2015. What are the negatives of this? Should she make voluntary contributions?
Sorry for the rambling wall of text. I appreciate we are in a very fortunate position, especially given the current climate.
submitted by Jealous-Wolf9231 to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

Survey Of Future Price Of Bitcoin

Hey bitcoin fans, I want to make a study about the future price of bitcoin and after that release a video on YouTube, but before that I need your help to conduct the study.
here is the subject
The first halving on November 2012 the price of bitcoin was 10.8$ after that on December 2013 the price of bitcoin went to 1161$ = 107X profit
second halving on July 2016 the price of Bitcoin was 650$
on December 2017 the price of bitcoin went to the moon 19643$ = 30X profit
The Average between the two pumps is 68.5X the calculation is [(107 +30)/2] =68.5
The third halving 11 may 2020 the price of bitcoin was 8600$
If we take the average profit X the price of bitcoin on the third halving
we got this number “bitcoin Price prediction : 68,5 X 8600$= 589 100$”
My question is how many of you think that bitcoin will reach
less than 100 000$
between 100 000$ and 300 000$
between 300 000$ and 600 000$
submitted by Bitcoinsproutclub to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

[CONTEST] Where do you think bitcoin will be in a year?

In honor of the 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 prediction threads, I am opening another one up. What do you think bitcoin's price will be come Dec 23rd 2020 at 22:00 UTC?
The winner of last year's contest thread is TheresJustNoWay (link). Congratulations. I'll send your price to you as soon as I can, I'll PM you when that's ready.
The gist of the contest is: I pledge to give 0.0032 BTC to the closest prediction, or whatever bitcoin is equivalent to $24 is at the moment (If you do not chose which in your prediction comment, the choice will be made for you come Dec 23rd 2020 [protip, if you predict below $7500, chose the USD equivalent. If you predict above $7500, chose the BTC amount]