Tom Lee & Rick Falkvinge predicts bitcoins price should

Bitcoin, huh? WTF is going on? Should we scale you on-chain or off-chain? Will you stay decentralized, distributed, immutable?

0. Shit, this is long, TLWR please! Too long, won't read.
EDIT: TLDR TLWR for clarity.
1. Bitcoin, huh? Brief introduction.
There are 3 sections to this overview. The first section is a brief introduction to bitcoin. The second section looks at recent developments in the bitcoin world, through the analogy of email attachments, and the third section discusses what could be next, through the perspective of resilience and network security.
This is just a continuation of a long, long, possibly never-ending debate that started with the release of the bitcoin whitepaper in 2008 (see The recent mess during the past few years boils down to the controversy with the block size limit and how to appropriately scale bitcoin, the keyword appropriately. Scaling bitcoin is a controversial debate with valid arguments from all sides (see
I have researched, studied, and written this overview as objectively and as impartially as possible. By all means, this is still an opinion and everyone is advised to draw their own conclusions. My efforts are to make at least a few readers aware that ultimately there is only one team, and that team is the team bitcoin. Yes, currently though, there are factions within the team bitcoin. I hope that we can get beyond partisan fights and work together for the best bitcoin. I support all scaling proposals as long as they are the best for the given moment in time. Personally, I hate propaganda and love free speech as long as it is not derogatory and as long as it allows for constructive discussions.
The goal of this overview is to explain to a novice how bitcoin network works, what has been keeping many bitcoin enthusiasts concerned, and if we can keep the bitcoin network with three main properties described as decentralized, distributed, immutable. Immutable means censorship resistant. For the distinction between decentralized and distributed, refer to Figure 1: Centralized, decentralized and distributed network models by Paul Baran (1964), which is a RAND Institute study to create a robust and nonlinear military communication network (see Note that for the overall network resilience and security, distributed is more desirable than decentralized, and the goal is to get as far away from central models as possible. Of course, nothing is strictly decentralized or strictly distributed and all network elements are at different levels of this spectrum.
For those unaware how bitcoin works, I recommend the Bitcoin Wikipedia (see In short, the bitcoin network includes users which make bitcoin transactions and send them to the network memory pool called mempool, nodes which store the public and pseudonymous ledger called blockchain and which help with receiving pending transactions and updating processed transactions, thus securing the overall network, and miners which also secure the bitcoin network by mining. Mining is the process of confirming pending bitcoin transactions, clearing them from the mempool, and adding them to blocks which build up the consecutive chain of blocks on the blockchain. The blockchain is therefore a decentralized and distributed ledger built on top of bitcoin transactions, therefore impossible to exist without bitcoin. If someone claims to be working on their own blockchain without bitcoin, by the definition of the bitcoin network however, they are not talking about the actual blockchain. Instead, they intend to own a different kind of a private database made to look like the public and pseudonymous blockchain ledger.
There are roughly a couple of dozen mining pools, each possibly with hundreds or thousands of miners participating in them, to several thousand nodes (see and Therefore, the bitcoin network has at worst decentralized miners and at best distributed nodes. The miner and node design makes the blockchain resilient and immune to reversible changes, making it censorship resistant, thus immutable. The bitcoin blockchain avoids the previous need for a third party to trust. This is a very elegant solution to peer-to-peer financial exchange via a network that is all: decentralized, distributed, immutable. Extra features (escrow, reversibility via time-locks, and other features desirable in specific instances) can be integrated within the network or added on top of this network, however, they have not been implemented yet.
Miners who participate receive mining reward consisting of newly mined bitcoins at a predetermined deflationary rate and also transaction fees from actual bitcoin transactions being processed. It is estimated that in 2022, miners will have mined more than 90% of all 21 million bitcoins ever to be mined (see As the mining reward from newly mined blocks diminishes to absolute zero in 2140, the network eventually needs the transaction fees to become the main component of the reward. This can happen either via high-volume-low-cost transaction fees or low-volume-high-cost transaction fees. Obviously, there is the need to address the question of fees when dealing with the dilemma how to scale bitcoin. Which type of fees would you prefer and under which circumstances?
2. WTF is going on? Recent developments.
There are multiple sides to the scaling debate but to simplify it, first consider the 2 main poles. In particular, to scale bitcoin on blockchain or to scale it off it, that is the question!
The first side likes the idea of bitcoin as it has been until now. It prefers on-chain scaling envisioned by the bitcoin creator or a group of creators who chose the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. It is now called Bitcoin Cash and somewhat religiously follows Satoshi’s vision from the 2008 whitepaper and their later public forum discussions (see Creators’ vision is good to follow but it should not be followed blindly and dogmatically when better advancements are possible, the keyword when. To alleviate concerning backlog of transactions and rising fees, Bitcoin Cash proponents implemented a simple one-line code update which increased the block size limit for blockhain blocks from 1MB block size limit to a new, larger 8MB limit. This was done through a fork on August 1, 2017, which created Bitcoin Cash, and which kept the bitcoin transaction history until then. Bitcoin Cash has observed significant increase in support, from 3% of all bitcoin miners at first to over 44% of all bitcoin miners after 3 weeks on August 22, 2017 (see and
An appropriate scaling analogy is to recall email attachments early on. They too were limited to a few MB at first, then 10MB, 20MB, up until 25MB on Gmail. But even then, Gmail eventually started using Google Drive internally. Note that Google Drive is a third party to Gmail, although yes, it is managed by the same entity.
The second side argues that bitcoin cannot work with such a scaling approach of pre-meditated MB increases. Arguments against block size increases include miner and node centralization, and bandwidth limitations. These are discussed in more detail in the third section of this overview. As an example of an alternative scaling approach, proponents of off-chain scaling want to jump to the internally integrated third party right away, without any MB increase and, sadly, without any discussion. Some of these proponents called one particular implementation method SegWit, which stands for Segregated Witness, and they argue that SegWit is the only way that we can ever scale up add the extra features to the bitcoin network. This is not necessarily true because other scaling solutions are feasible, such as already functioning Bitcoin Cash, and SegWit’s proposed solution will not use internally integrated third party as shown next. Note that although not as elegant as SegWit is today, there are other possibilities to integrate some extra features without SegWit (see /Bitcoin/comments/5dt8tz/confused_is_segwit_needed_for_lightning_network).
Due to the scaling controversy and the current backlog of transactions and already high fees, a third side hastily proposed a compromise to a 2MB increase in addition to the proposed SegWit implementation. They called it SegWit2x, which stands for Segregated Witness with 2MB block size limit increase. But the on-chain scaling and Bitcoin Cash proponents did not accept it due to SegWit’s design redundancy and hub centralization which are discussed next and revisited in the third section of this overview. After a few years of deadlock, that is why the first side broke free and created the Bitcoin Cash fork.
The second side stuck with bitcoin as it was. In a way, they inherited the bitcoin network without any major change to public eye. This is crucial because major changes are about to happen and the original bitcoin vision, as we have known it, is truly reflected only in what some media refer to as a forked clone, Bitcoin Cash. Note that to avoid confusion, this second side is referred to as Bitcoin Core by some or Legacy Bitcoin by others, although mainstream media still refers to it simply as Bitcoin. The core of Bitcoin Core is quite hardcore though. They too rejected the proposed compromise for SegWit2x and there are clear indications that they will push to keep SegWit only, forcing the third side with SegWit2x proponents to create another fork in November 2017 or to join Bitcoin Cash. Note that to certain degree, already implemented and working Bitcoin Cash is technically superior to SegWit2x which is yet to be deployed (see /Bitcoin/comments/6v0gll/why_segwit2x_b2x_is_technically_inferior_to).
Interestingly enough, those who agreed to SegWit2x have been in overwhelming majority, nearly 87% of all bitcoin miners on July 31, 2017 prior to the fork, and a little over 90% of remaining Bitcoin Core miners to date after the fork (see Despite such staggering support, another Bitcoin Core fork is anticipated later in November (see and the "Outcome #2: Segwit2x reneges on 2x or does not prioritize on-chain scaling" seems to be on track from the perspective of Bitcoin Core SegWit, publicly seen as the original Bitcoin (see The sad part is that although in their overwhelming majority, the miners who support SegWit2x would be the ones creating another Bitcoin Core SegWit2x fork or parting ways from the original Bitcoin.
In a way, this is an ironic example how bitcoin’s built-in resiliency to veto changes causes majority to part away when a small minority has status quo and holds off fully-consented progress. Ultimately, this will give the minority Bitcoin Core SegWit proponents the original Bitcoin branding, perhaps to lure in large institutional investors and monetize on bitcoin’s success as we have it seen it during the past 9 years since its inception. Recall that bitcoin of today is already a decentralized, distributed, immutable network by its definition. The bitcoin network was designed to be an alternative to centralized and mutable institutions, so prevalent in modern capitalist societies.
Bitcoin Core SegWit group wants to change the existing bitcoin network to a network with dominant third parties which, unlike Google Drive to Gmail, are not internal. In particular, they intend to do so via the lightning network, which is a second layer solution (2L). This particular 2L as currently designed relies on an artificial block size limit cap which creates a bottleneck in order to provide high incentives for miners to participate. It monetizes on backlog of transaction and high fees, which are allocated to miners, not any group in particular. Cheaper and more instantaneous transactions are shifted to the lightning network which is operated by hubs also earning revenue. Note that some of these hubs may choose to monitor transactions and can possibly censor who is allowed to participate in this no longer strictly peer-to-peer network.
We lose the immutability and instead we have a peer-to-hub-to-peer network that is mutable and at best decentralized, and certainly not distributed (see For regular day-to-day and recurring transactions, it is not a considerable risk or inconvenience. And one could choose to use the main chain any time to bypass the lightning network and truly transact peer-to-peer. But since the main chain has an entry barrier in the form of artificially instilled high transaction fees, common people are not able to use bitcoin as we have known it until now. Peer-to-peer bitcoin becomes institution-to-institution bitcoin with peer-to-hub-to-peer 2L.
To reiterate and stress, note the following lightning network design flaw again. Yes, activating SegWit and allowing 2L such as lightning allows for lower transaction fees to coexist side by side with more costly on-chain transactions. For those using this particularly prescribed 2L, the fees remain low. But since these 2L are managed by hubs, we introduce another element to trust, which is contrary to what the bitcoin network was designed to do at the first place. Over time, by the nature of the lightning network in its current design, these third party hubs grow to be centralized, just like Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Discover, etc. There is nothing wrong with that in general because it works just fine. But recall that bitcoin set out to create a different kind of a network. Instead of decentralized, distributed, immutable network with miners and nodes, with the lightning network we end up with at best decentralized but mutable network with hubs.
Note that Bitcoin Core SegWit has a US-based organization backing it with millions of dollars (see and Their proponents are quite political and some even imply $1000 fees on the main bitcoin blockchain (see Contrary to them, Bitcoin Cash proponents intend to keep small fees on a scale of a few cents, which in large volume in larger blockchain blocks provide sufficient incentive for miners to participate.
On the one hand, sticking to the original vision of peer-to-peer network scaled on-chain has merit and holds potential for future value. On the other hand, 2L have potential to carry leaps forward from current financial infrastructure. As mentioned earlier, 2L will allow for extra features to be integrated off-chain (e.g. escrow, reversibility via time-locks), including entirely new features such as smart contracts, decentralized applications, some of which have been pioneered and tested on another cryptocurrency network called Ethereum. But such features could be one day implemented directly on the main bitcoin blockchain without the lightning network as currently designed, or perhaps with a truly integrated 2L proposed in the third section of this overview.
What makes the whole discussion even more confusing is that there are some proposals for specific 2L that would in fact increase privacy and make bitcoin transactions less pseudonymous than those on the current bitcoin blockchain now. Keep in mind that 2L are not necessarily undesirable. If they add features and keep the main network characteristics (decentralized, distributed, immutable), they should be embraced with open arms. But the lightning network as currently designed gives up immutability and hub centralization moves the network characteristic towards a decentralized rather than a distributed network.
In a sense, back to the initial email attachment analogy, even Gmail stopped with attachment limit increases and started hosting large files on Google Drive internally, with an embedded link in a Gmail email to download anything larger than 25MB from Google Drive. Anticipating the same scaling decisions, the question then becomes not if but when and how such 2L should be implemented, keeping the overall network security and network characteristics in mind. If you have not gotten it yet, repeat, repeat, repeat: decentralized, distributed, immutable. Is it the right time now and is SegWit (one way, my way or highway) truly the best solution?
Those siding away from Bitcoin Core SegWit also dislike that corporate entities behind Blockstream, the one publicly known corporate entity directly supporting SegWit, have allegedly applied for SegWit patents which may further restrict who may and who may not participate in the creation of future hubs, or how these hubs are controlled (see the alleged patent revelations,, the subsequent Twitter rebuttal Blockstream CEO,, and the subsequent legal threats to SegWit2x proponents /btc/comments/6vadfi/blockstream_threatening_legal_action_against). Regardless if the patent claims are precise or not, the fact remains that there is a corporate entity dictating and vetoing bitcoin developments. Objectively speaking, Bitcoin Core SegWit developers paid by Blockstream is a corporate takeover of the bitcoin network as we have known it.
And on the topic of patents and permissionless technological innovations, what makes all of this even more complicated is that a mining improvement technology called ASICboost is allowed on Bitcoin Cash. The main entities who forked from Bitcoin Core to form Bitcoin Cash had taken advantage of patents to the ASICboost technology on the original bitcoin network prior to the fork (see This boost saved estimated 20% electricity for miners on 1MB blocks and created unfair economic advantage for this one particular party. SegWit is one way that this boost is being eliminated, through the code. Larger blocks are another way to reduce the boost advantage, via decreased rate of collisions which made this boost happen at the first place (see and Therefore, the initial Bitcoin Cash proponents argue that eliminating ASICboost through the code is no longer needed or necessary.
Of course, saving any amount electricity between 0% and 20% is good for all on our planet but in reality any energy saved in a mining operation is used by the same mining operation to increase their mining capacity. In reality, there are no savings, there is just capacity redistribution. The question then becomes if it is okay that only one party currently and already holds onto this advantage, which they covertly hid for relatively long time, and which they could be using covertly on Bitcoin Cash if they desired to do so, even though it would an advantage to a smaller degree. To be fair to them, they are mining manufacturers and operators, they researched and developed the advantage from own resources, so perhaps they do indeed have the right to reap ASICboost benefits while they can. But perhaps it should happen in publicly know way, not behind closed doors, and should be temporary, with agreed patent release date.
In conclusion, there is no good and no bad actor, each side is its own shade of grey. All parties have their own truth (and villainy) to certain degree.
Bitcoin Cash's vision is for bitcoin to be an electronic cash platform and daily payment processor whereas Bitcoin Core SegWit seems to be drawn more to the ideas of bitcoin as an investment vehicle and a larger settlement layer with the payment processor function managed via at best decentralized third party hubs. Both can coexist, or either one can eventually prove more useful and digest the other one by taking over all use-cases.
Additionally, the most popular communication channel on /bitcoin with roughly 300k subscribers censors any alternative non-Bitcoin-Core-SegWit opinions and bans people from posting their ideas to discussions (see This is because their moderators are also supported by Blockstream. Note that the author of this overview has not gotten banned from this particular subreddit (yet), but has experienced shadow-banning first hand. Shadow-banning is a form of censorship. In this particular case, their moderator robot managed by people moderators, collaboratively with the people moderators, do the following:
  • (1) look for "Bitcoin Cash" and other undesirable keywords,
  • (2) warn authors that “Bitcoin Cash” is not true bitcoin (which objectively speaking it is, and which is by no means “BCash” that Bitcoin Core SegWit proponents refer to, in a coordinated effort to further confuse public, especially since some of them have published plans to officially release another cryptocurrency called “BCash” in 2018, see,
  • (3) further warn authors that if they try to post such opinions again, they could banned permanently,
  • (4) tell authors to delete their already posted posts or comments,
  • (5) hide their post from publicly seen boards with all other posts, thus preventing it from being seeing by the other participants in this roughly 300k public forum,
  • (6) and in extreme cases actually “remove” their valid opinions if they slip by uncensored, gain traction, and are often times raise to popularity as comments to other uncensored posts (see /btc/comments/6v3ee8/on_a_reply_i_made_in_rbitcoin_that_had_over_350 and /btc/comments/6vbyv0/in_case_we_needed_more_evidence_500_upvotes).
This effectively silences objective opinions and creates a dangerous echo-chamber. Suppressing free speech and artificially blowing up transaction fees on Bitcoin Core SegWit is against bitcoin’s fundamental values. Therefore, instead of the original Reddit communication channel, many bitcoin enthusiasts migrated to /btc which has roughly 60k subscribers as of now, up from 20k subscribers a year ago in August 2016 (see Moderators there do not censor opinions and allow all polite and civil discussions about scaling, including all opinions on Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Core, etc.
Looking beyond their respective leaderships and communication channels, let us review a few network fundamentals and recent developments in Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Cash networks. Consequently, for now, these present Bitcoin Cash with more favorable long-term prospects.
  • (1) The stress-test and/or attack on the Bitcoin Cash mempool earlier on August 16, 2017 showed that 8MB blocks do work as intended, without catastrophic complications that Bitcoin Core proponents anticipated and from which they attempted to discourage others (see for the Bitcoin Cash mempool and for the Bitcoin Core mempool). Note that when compared to the Bitcoin Core mempool on their respective 2 week views, one can observe how each network handles backlogs. On the most recent 2 week graphs, the Y-scale for Bitcoin Core is 110k vs. 90k on Bitcoin Cash. In other words, at the moment, Bitcoin Cash works better than Bitcoin Core even though there is clearly not as big demand for Bitcoin Cash as there is for Bitcoin Core. The lack of demand for Bitcoin Cash is partly because Bitcoin Cash is only 3 weeks old and not many merchants have started accepting it, and only a limited number of software applications to use Bitcoin Cash has been released so far. By all means, the Bitcoin Cash stress-test and/or attack from August 16, 2017 reveals that the supply will handle the increased demand, more affordably, and at a much quicker rate.
  • (2) Bitcoin Cash “BCH” mining has become temporarily more profitable than mining Bitcoin Core “BTC” (see Besides temporary loss of miners, this puts Bitcoin Core in danger of permanently fleeing miners. Subsequently, mempool backlog and transaction fees are anticipated to increase further.
  • (3) When compared to Bitcoin Cash transaction fees at roughly $0.02, transaction fees per kB are over 800 times as expensive on Bitcoin Core, currently at over $16 (see
  • (4) Tipping service that used to work on Bitcoin Core's /Bitcoin a few years back has been revived by a new tipping service piloted on the more neutral /btc with the integration of Bitcoin Cash (see /cashtipperbot).
3. Should we scale you on-chain or off-chain? Scaling bitcoin.
Let us start with the notion that we are impartial to both Bitcoin Core (small blocks, off-chain scaling only) and Bitcoin Cash (big blocks, on-chain scaling only) schools of thought. We will support any or all ideas, as long as they allow for bitcoin to grow organically and eventually succeed as a peer-to-peer network that remains decentralized, distributed, immutable. Should we have a preference in either of the proposed scaling solutions?
First, let us briefly address Bitcoin Core and small blocks again. From the second section of this overview, we understand that there are proposed off-chain scaling methods via second layer solutions (2L), most notably soon-to-be implemented lightning via SegWit on Bitcoin Core. Unfortunately, the lightning network diminishes distributed and immutable network properties by replacing bitcoin’s peer-to-peer network with a two-layer institution-to-institution network and peer-to-hub-to-peer 2L. Do we need this particular 2L right now? Is its complexity truly needed? Is it not at best somewhat cumbersome (if not very redundant)? In addition to ridiculously high on-chain transaction fees illustrated in the earlier section, the lightning network code is perhaps more robust than it needs to be now, with thousands of lines of code, thus possibly opening up to new vectors for bugs or attacks (see and Additionally, this particular 2L as currently designed unnecessarily introduces third parties, hubs, that are expected to centralize. We already have a working code that has been tested and proven to handle 8MB blocks, as seen with Bitcoin Cash on August 16, 2017 (see At best, these third party hubs would be decentralized but they would not be distributed. And these hubs would be by no means integral to the original bitcoin network with users, nodes, and miners.
To paraphrase Ocam’s razor problem solving principle, the simplest solution with the most desirable features will prevail (see The simplest scalability solution today is Bitcoin Cash because it updates only one line of code, which instantly increases the block size limit. This also allows other companies building on Bitcoin Cash to reduce their codes when compared to Bitcoin Core SegWit’s longer code, some even claiming ten-fold reductions (see /btc/comments/6vdm7y/ryan_x_charles_reveals_bcc_plan). The bitcoin ecosystem not only includes the network but it also includes companies building services on top of it. When these companies can reduce their vectors for bugs or attacks, the entire ecosystem is healthier and more resilient to hacking disasters. Obviously, changes to the bitcoin network code are desirable to be as few and as elegant as possible.
But what are the long-term implications of doing the one-line update repeatedly? Eventually, blocks would have to reach over 500MB size if they were to process Visa-level capacity (see With decreasing costs of IT infrastructure, bandwidth and storage could accommodate it, but the overhead costs would increase significantly, implying miner and/or full node centralization further discussed next. To decrease this particular centralization risk, which some consider undesirable and others consider irrelevant, built-in and integrated 2L could keep the block size at a reasonably small-yet-still-large limit.
At the first sight, these 2L would remedy the risk of centralization by creating their own centralization incentive. At the closer look and Ocam’s razor principle again, these 2L do not have to become revenue-seeking third party hubs as designed with the current lightning network. They can be integrated into the current bitcoin network with at worst decentralized miners and at best distributed nodes. Recall that miners will eventually need to supplement their diminishing mining reward from new blocks. Additionally, as of today, the nodes have no built-in economic incentive to run other than securing the network and keeping the network’s overall value at its current level. Therefore, if new 2L were to be developed, they should be designed in a similar way like the lightning network, with the difference that the transaction processing revenue would not go to third party hubs but to the already integrated miners and nodes.
In other words, why do we need extra hubs if we have miners and nodes already? Let us consider the good elements from the lightning network, forget the unnecessary hubs, and focus on integrating the hubs’ responsibilities to already existing miner and node protocols. Why would we add extra elements to the system that already functions with the minimum number of elements possible? Hence, 2L are not necessarily undesirable as long as they do not unnecessarily introduce third party hubs.
Lastly, let us discuss partial on-chain scaling with the overall goal of network security. The network security we seek is the immutability and resilience via distributed elements within otherwise decentralized and distributed network. It is not inconceivable to scale bitcoin with bigger blocks as needed, when needed, to a certain degree. The thought process is the following:
  • (1) Block size limit:
We need some upper limit to avoid bloating the network with spam transactions. Okay, that makes sense. Now, what should this limit be? If we agree to disagree with small block size limit stuck at 1MB, and if we are fine with flexible block size limit increases (inspired by mining difficulty readjustments but on a longer time scale) or big block propositions (to be increased incrementally), what is holding us off next?
  • (2) Miner centralization:
Bigger blocks mean that more data will be transferred on the bitcoin network. Consequently, more bandwidth and data storage will be required. This will create decentralized miners instead of distributed ones. Yes, that is true. And it has already happened, due to the economy of scale, in particular the efficiency of grouping multiple miners in centralized facilities, and the creation of mining pools collectively and virtually connecting groups of miners not physically present in the same facility. These facilities tend to have huge overhead costs and the data storage and bandwidth increase costs are negligible in this context. The individual miners participating in mining pools will quite likely notice somewhat higher operational costs but allowing for additional revenue from integrated 2L described earlier will give them economic incentive to remain actively participating. Note that mining was never supposed to be strictly distributed and it was always at worst decentralized, as defined in the first section of this overview. To assure at best a distributed network, we have nodes.
  • (3) Node centralization:
Bigger blocks mean that more data will be transferred on the bitcoin network. Consequently, more bandwidth and data storage will be required. This will create decentralized nodes instead of distributed ones. Again, recall that we have a spectrum of decentralized and distributed networks in mind, not their absolutes. The concern about the node centralization (and the subsequent shift from distributed to decentralized network property) is valid if we only follow on-chain scaling to inconsiderate MB values. If addressed with the proposed integrated 2L that provides previously unseen economic incentives to participate in the network, this concern is less serious.
Furthermore, other methods to reduce bandwidth and storage needs can be used. A popular proposal is block pruning, which keeps only the most recent 550 blocks, and eventually deletes any older blocks (see Block pruning addresses storage needs and makes sure that not all nodes participating in the bitcoin network have to store all transactions that have ever been recorded on the blockchain. Some nodes storing all transactions are still necessary and they are called full nodes. Block pruning does not eliminate full nodes but it does indeed provide an economic incentive for the reduction and centralization (i.e. saving on storage costs). If addressed with the proposed integrated 2L that provides previously unseen economic incentives to participate in the network, this concern is less serious.
In other words, properly designed 2L should provide economic incentives for all nodes (full and pruned) to remain active and distributed. As of now, only miners earn revenue for participating. The lightning network proposes extra revenue for hubs. Instead, miner revenue could increase by processing 2L transactions as well, and full nodes could have an economic incentive as well. To mine, relatively high startup costs is necessary in order to get the most up to date mining hardware and proper cooling equipment. These have to be maintained and periodically upgraded. To run a full node, one needs only stable bandwidth and a sufficiently large storage, which can be expanded as needed, when needed. To run a full node, one needs only stable bandwidth and relatively small storage, which does not need to be expanded.
Keeping the distributed characteristic in mind, it would be much more secure for the bitcoin network if one could earn bitcoin by simply running a node, full or pruned. This could be integrated with a simple code change requiring each node to own a bitcoin address to which miners would send a fraction of processed transaction fees. Of course, pruned nodes would collectively receive the least transaction fee revenue (e.g. 10%), full nodes would collectively receive relatively larger transaction fee revenue (e.g. 20%), whereas mining facilities or mining pools would individually receive the largest transaction fee revenue (e.g. 70%) in addition to the full mining reward from newly mined blocks (i.e. 100%). This would assure that all nodes would remain relatively distributed. Hence, block pruning is a feasible solution.
However, in order to start pruning, one would have to have the full blockchain to begin with. As currently designed, downloading blockchain for the first time also audits previous blocks for accuracy, this can take days depending on one’s bandwidth. This online method is the only way to distribute the bitcoin blockchain and the bitcoin network so far. When the size of blockchain becomes a concern, a simpler distribution idea should be implemented offline. Consider distributions of Linux-based operating systems on USBs. Similarly, the full bitcoin blockchain up to a certain point can be distributed via easy-to-mail USBs. Note that even if we were to get the blockchain in bulk on such a USB, some form of a block audit would have to happen nevertheless.
A new form of checkpoint hashes could be added to the bitcoin code. For instance, each 2016 blocks (whenever the difficulty readjusts), all IDs from previous 2015 blocks would be hashed and recorded. That way, with our particular offline blockchain distribution, the first time user would have to audit only the key 2016th blocks, designed to occur on average once in roughly 2 weeks. This would significantly reduce bandwidth concerns for the auditing process because only each 2016th block would have to be uploaded online to be audited.
Overall, we are able to scale the bitcoin network via initial on-chain scaling approaches supplemented with off-chain scaling approaches. This upgrades the current network to a pruned peer-to-peer network with integrated 2L managed by miners and nodes who assure that the bitcoin network stays decentralized, distributed, immutable.
  • Discussion at /btc/comments/6vj47c/bitcoin_huh_wtf_is_going_on_should_we_scale_you is greatly encouraged.
  • Note that the author u/bit-architect appreciates any Bitcoin Cash donations on Reddit directly or on bitcoin addresses 178ZTiot2QVVKjru2f9MpzyeYawP81vaXi bitcoincash:qp7uqpv2tsftrdmu6e8qglwr2r38u4twlq3f7a48uq (Bitcoin Cash) and 1GqcFi4Cs1LVAxLxD3XMbJZbmjxD8SYY8S (Bitcoin Core).
  • EDIT: Donation addresses above updated.
submitted by bit-architect to btc [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Volatility: There are no bubbles, only tsunamis to come.

Hello Bitcoiners. I've been watching from the sidelines for awhile now and figured it is time to jump in the pool. I wanted to make a splash, so I decided to share my shocking epiphany on the volatility of Bitcoin.

Where I'm coming from

I believe Bitcoin's biggest hurdle will be that of government regulation but, at the same time, aided by other country's resentment of the PetroDollar and world reserve status the US dollar maintains. I believe in the mechanics and game theory of Bitcoin. I think it will succeed in taking over significant portions of the global economy because of its frictionless nature. I subscribe to the idea that bitcoin will either be worth zero, or very large amounts of money in the long run. It is just a matter of time while the general population learns to trust it as a store and transfer of value. Developers will do what they do and make it easier to use and overcome well known limitations of storage and bandwidth.

And then it came to me

With that, I would like to present some shock and awe that many people will struggle to comtemplate as the success of Bitcoin takes off: Price Volatility. There are three components that need to be considered: The scarce, fixed monetary units; The percentage of global markets bitcoin will capture; And a time frame. With these, you can begin to understand the staggering volatility that awaits us on the path to world adoption.
Due to the limited monetary units of Bitcoin, there is but one other parameter to tune to make Bitcoin a functional, competitive global currency - and that is the exchange rate. Multiply the exchange rate by the monetary units and you get the total monetary potential of the currency.
As of today, that's about 1.6 billion dollars of economic potential. That is it. If Bitcoin is to adopt respectable portions of the black market, gambling, remittance, and online commerce, the required target market cap must be in the trillions. And, again, the only way to get there, because of the fixed monetary units, is the exchange rate.
For Bitcoin to have a trillion dollars market potential, even after the maximum number of monetary units have been created, will be almost $50,000 per bitcoin. Now the question you are tasked to answer is: How long will it take bitcoin to reach a trillion dollar market capitalization? If we use the adoption rate of a similar technology, email, we can see that it took about 30 years. If we apply the same rate of adoption to Bitcoin and a potential trillion dollar market, we get an astounding figure.

Wait for it...

If, for a potential trillion dollar market you require each bitcoin to be valued at $50,000, and it will take 30 years to get to that value, we must expect, on average, the bitcoin value to rise approximately $140 a month. It sounds ridiculous, but do the math: $50,000 / (12 * 30) = $138.88. Edit for emphasis: And this rate will not be linear - it will be wildly volatile! But that is the average increase over 30 years and there is no escaping the simple math behind it.
I recall someone once say that Bitcoin's biggest burden is its "too good to be true" properties. Nobody wants to hear your lies of instant global transfers that cost nothing and the indestructible money can't even be seized by governments - because its impossible and if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
But there you have some hard numbers to run for yourself. How would you change the numbers to breech the cognitive dissonance you're currently experiencing that prevents you from believing an average increase of $140 is a month a real possibility?
I would like to thank Rick Falkvinge for his contribution of inspiration to this recent epiphany.
submitted by AgentZeroM to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Why I believe Bitcoin price will reach $300 very soon

As you all know the price of Bitcoin is climbing to significant higher price points ($150+) due to more and more positive news coming out over the validity and therefore acceptance of bitcoin. I'm a firm believer that we will see new highs for the price of bitcoin sometime this year. I have come to the conclusion 3 months ago that the price has to increase and test the $266 high sooner rather than later. There are several reasons and events that have happened over the course of the last 3 months that have consolidated this view.
1) The number one reason which evoked this thought was that mining difficulty was getting rapidly higher (at a rate of 30-35%) and the 2016 blocks completion rate was getting faster. However, at the time the price was stagnating at $100-110. This would render mining not very profitable and soon more powerful ASICs would need to come to the market to justify the continuation of mining activity or the mining market would collapse or perhaps the PoW function would need to be re-thought. Something had to give and I thought it would be the price. I felt we would need to see $150-250 prices but only in a favourable environment where more people would see bitcoin as a legitamate currency. This favourable environment was becoming more and more apparent after hearing various VC investors ploughing millions of dollars into start-ups.
CLARIFICATION: In a favourable environment more miners enter the market with newer, more powerful ASIC hardware rendering the current miners with their less powerful and now outdated ASIC hardware no longer profitable. This forces the current miners to hold on to their Bitcoins and wait to sell at a higher price removing this supply of Bitcoins from the market. This creates an upward price squeeze in a favourable environment.
2) VC funding into many bitcoin start-ups has taken off dramatically over the summer where coinlab got $500,000, Coinbase raised $5million and many other Bitcoin startups received $10,000-50,000 from Bitcoin venture capitalist firm BTCVC. While there were lots of early technologies that had funding and failed in the past several decades bitcoin, atleast is the only technology that is becoming adopted in over 80 countries world wide. For a currency Bitcoin is apolitical for a technology it is still not fully utilised. VC funding tends to happen when hope/speculation and confidence in a technology is evident and there seems to be plenty of confidence in it.
3) The closure of Silk Road in my opinion is a great thing for Bitcoin only because it removes the association of illicit drug commerce and the notion that such illegal activity is the main utility of Bitcoin. Regardless of what anyone thinks of drug use and trade it's evident that the number one currency used to trade illicit drugs is the US dollar and notably the $100 bill. Example of note is HSBC's direct involvement in facilitating transfers of $650m of Latin American drug money to and from the US which supposedly prevented a total financial collapse in 2008.
4) Many countries other than US have given Bitcoin the green light for acceptance: Germany legally declared Bitcoin as private money and legal tender (thats subject to tax but at least its legal), Canadian and UK financial services governing bodies declared that no legislation will be placed on Bitcoin, the exchanges or services. Government sanctioned Chinese state TV channel CCTV twice aired documentaries on Bitcoin in the summer.
Overall there are more and more services and utilities for Bitcoin cropping up every week and with that more and more confidence in the digital currency is observed. This is now reflected in the price but some like Falkvinge will argue that it's overpriced due to speculation. But what's wrong speculation? In financial markets, every currency, commodity and company need speculators as ultimately speculators aid the price discovery and determine a fair value. In turn the resulting liquidity indirectly provides wealth and value to the company/commodity/currency.
As shown in this article one of the main issues with Bitcoin is that it doesn't know if its a currency, commodity or asset as it exhibits all three tendencies but conversely therein lies its strength as well. Bitcoin has a set of properties that allow it to have all three classifications and I believe confidence in its adoption is gained by this fact.
Indeed the original premise of Bitcoin is that it's a currency and fulfils the basic criteria which makes it money; it's a medium of exchange, divisible, fungible, portable and scarce which supposedly gives it a store of value. Hence it's been coined the term digital gold. Like Gold it's apolitical however, unlike Gold where it's tangible and safe in ones possession Bitcoin's store of value is derived from its core attribute and that is its cryptography. Paradoxically Bitcoin is not tangible but it can be sent to the other side of the world in minutes and that is value. It can also be stored on a thumb drive and taken across borders without anyone knowing. This is not possible with gold. Bitcoin achieves this with the help of its encryption protocol. The Sha256 encryption protocol so far cannot be cracked and as long as that is secure Bitcoin's utility as a digital currency/asset/commodity remains and with that greater adoption and further fair value determination.
The future is bright, the future is Bitcoin
submitted by Justlite to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Subreddit Stats: btc top posts from 2015-11-07 to 2018-12-03 19:07 PDT

Period: 1122.63 days
Submissions Comments
Total 1000 177195
Rate (per day) 0.89 157.49
Unique Redditors 537 19498
Combined Score 606295 1044009

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 28637 points, 50 submissions: Egon_1
    1. bitcoin mods removed top post: "The rich don't need Bitcoin. The poor do" (4810 points, 506 comments)
    2. WSJ: "[bitcoin core] fees have reached an average cost of about $30 per transaction. That makes bitcoin virtually unusable for all but very large transactions. The Bitcoin Cash crowd is just trying to offer a solution to that problem." (1305 points, 338 comments)
    3. Friendly reminder that the LiteCoin ($36) founder sold 100% of his coins as it ran up to $300 while wearing a HODL shirt for video interviews. (1192 points, 293 comments)
    4. Rick Falkvinge:"Fun fact: I am aware of a truckload of companies currently in the process of converting from Bitcoin Legacy to #Bitcoin Cash. I am aware of zero (0) companies going the other direction." (657 points, 226 comments)
    5. " wallet now displays "Bitcoin Cash" and "Bitcoin Core" balances. Should satisfy everyone, right? ;)" (627 points, 444 comments)
    6. GDAX: "We will open the BCH-BTC Order Book on Wednesday, January 17 at 9:00 am PST." (618 points, 112 comments)
    7. Stephen (BitPay CEO):"a typical #bitcoin transaction costs $1.80 now, >200k unconfirmed transactions, time for a hard fork to larger blocks ... 8mb please" (544 points, 113 comments)
    8. Erik Voorhees: "Changing Bitcoin's proof-of-work to prevent miners from mining is the most absurd and reckless thing I've heard in the scaling debate." (539 points, 171 comments)
    9. Erik Voorhees: "Fellow Bitcoiners, are you ever going to realize how problematic these fees are getting? Avg fees now over $40 per tx. A year ago avg fee was $4. A year prior, $0.40. Growing faster than price, and exponentially with usage. We just spent $4800 to move 15 BTC in one TX." (539 points, 147 comments)
    10. BitPay CEO: “If people can’t engage in commerce, it’s hard to imagine why they’d want to store their money in Bitcoin in the first place” (537 points, 133 comments)
  2. 26883 points, 56 submissions: MemoryDealers
    1. I'm Roger Ver, CEO of and world's first investor in Bitcoin startups. AMA (978 points, 932 comments)
    2. The pro Bitcoin Cash video from CNBC made it to the very front page of! (858 points, 189 comments)
    3. I (Roger Ver) will be doing an AMA on Monday Dec 18th starting at 10AM EST on /BTC because /Bitcoin is completely censored. (826 points, 412 comments)
    4. Reminder: Blockstream and Core got 100% of everything they asked for. (807 points, 332 comments)
    5. I'm giving away $100 each of BCH and BTC on live TV tomorrow by displaying the private key. Guess why? (738 points, 827 comments)
    6. How wrong were they? More than 2 years ago the CEO of Lightning Labs said LN would be ready in less than 6 months (695 points, 275 comments)
    7. To the Censorship loving tyrants in /Bitcoin, don't Say didn't warn you! "In the unlikely event that the 2MB block size increase portion of Segwit2x fails to activate, will immediately shift all company resources to supporting Bitcoin Cash exclusively." (672 points, 363 comments)
    8. Sign the Petition for Clemency for Ross Ulbricht, Serving Double Life for a Website (663 points, 227 comments)
    9. I just bet 1,000 BTC (~$4M USD) that Segwit 2X coin will have more value than Segwit 1x coin. (644 points, 398 comments)
    10. If you think consumers are going to throw away $100’s (and soon $1000’s) on transaction fees to open up a payment channel on the Lightning network, you are delusional. (599 points, 219 comments)
  3. 12737 points, 26 submissions: hunk_quark
    1. Censored! Youtube removes Roger Ver's video on "The effects of Censorship and Propaganda upon Bitcoin" (1002 points, 296 comments)
    2. CNBC is waking up (886 points, 144 comments)
    3. Despite massing brigading from bitcoin and core, @Bitcoin twitter account has gained 50k subscribers since it came out in support of BCH last week. (627 points, 197 comments)
    4. Warren Buffet's Berkshire is the single largest stockholder in BoA and WellsFargo. In case you were wondering about his attitude towards Bitcoin. (619 points, 113 comments)
    5. Bitfinex defines Bitcoin Cash as the coin that fulfills the original promise of p2p cash, a bitcoin upgrade that is ready to scale and sound money! #Winning (599 points, 164 comments)
    6. Wouldn't wanna be this shopper. (581 points, 124 comments)
    7. GDAX enabling EUBCH trading pair next week. #winning 🎆 (572 points, 66 comments)
    8. Thank to this community's effort, Forbes has corrected Kyle's Torpey's LN article to clarify LTC tx fees is much higher than BCH. Now let's ask for 1 more correction: Bitcoin cash is not Bcash. Links in comments. (508 points, 173 comments)
    9. Elizabeth Stark of Lightning labs calls out Blockstream on letting users tinker with LN that's neither safe nor ready for mainnet. (490 points, 266 comments)
    10. The $2000 tip for Bitcoin ABC dev shows we don't need blockstream to pay our developers, we can do community funding through tippr! (463 points, 131 comments)
  4. 12410 points, 23 submissions: BitcoinXio
    1. /bitcoin is censoring the NIST report that says "Bitcoin Cash is the original blockchain" and Bitcoin Core is not. If you have to censor to get people to believe you, then you have lost. (855 points, 496 comments)
    2. Free_Ross on Twitter: "ALL charges of murder-for-hire vs. Ross are now dropped. After almost 5 years, gov't has moved to dismiss final MD indictment based on evidence from corrupt agent now in prison." (759 points, 211 comments)
    3. Someone hacked the account todu which was a mod here to point users to /bitcoin (732 points, 259 comments)
    4. Former /cryptocurrency mod: "I used to be a mod of cryptocurrency until they kicked me out. Now, that sub, is controlled all by mods with accounts less than 7 months old!" (724 points, 214 comments)
    5. Congrats: /btc has reached 150,000 subscribers! (696 points, 356 comments)
    6. Twitter continues to go downhill - flags @Bitcoin account as ‘temporarily restricted due to unusual activity’ (635 points, 216 comments)
    7. There is a huge edit war on Wikipedia where trolls like the user "Jtbobwaysf" are trying very hard to inject the word "bcash" into Bitcoin Cash pages and reverting/editing other pages that speak factually poorly on topics such as Lightning Network, Segwit, etc. (622 points, 148 comments)
    8. What /bitcoin mods desperately don't want you to see! (601 points, 104 comments)
    9. /btc is trending on reddit today, congrats everyone! (586 points, 18 comments)
    10. Bitcoin Cash is upgrading on May 15 to 32MB max block limit (579 points, 334 comments)
  5. 11766 points, 16 submissions: BeijingBitcoins
    1. Average Bitcoin transaction fee is now above five dollars. 80% of the world population lives on less than $10 a day. So much for "banking the unbanked." (3417 points, 463 comments)
    2. Dear Reddit Admins: We need to talk about /Bitcoin (1342 points, 280 comments)
    3. Paid for this whisky with Bitcoin Cash! Ginza bar becomes third Tokyo retail establishment to accept BCC (747 points, 60 comments)
    4. Samson Mow says Bitcoin isn't for people earning less than $2 a day. With average transaction fees now at $27.20, is Bitcoin even for people earning less than $100 a day? (659 points, 160 comments)
    5. Protip: If you are new to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general, you really should read the document that started it all, the Bitcoin whitepaper [PDF] (642 points, 69 comments)
    6. With the public spotlight on Reddit censorship, now would be the perfect time to let the rest of Reddit know about the censorship on /bitcoin (641 points, 121 comments)
    7. /Bitcoin in a nutshell (531 points, 68 comments)
    8. Three years ago today, Mike Hearn published an article explaining exactly what would happen when the 1MB blocksize limit was hit. He was right on all counts. (483 points, 168 comments)
    9. Shit, they're on to us (449 points, 65 comments)
    10. "Am I so out of touch?" (443 points, 164 comments)
  6. 9301 points, 2 submissions: censorship_notifier
    1. Evidence that the mods of /Bitcoin may have been involved with the hacking and vote manipulation "attack" on /Bitcoin. (8585 points, 1166 comments)
    2. New anti-censorship bot for /bitcoin (716 points, 345 comments)
  7. 7980 points, 16 submissions: increaseblocks
    1. No Neo I'm trying to tell you ... (706 points, 77 comments)
    2. Blockstream is falling apart - Greg Maxwell resigns - Blockstream takes down team page in a hurry to reorg team - Adam Back must be worried (675 points, 492 comments)
    3. * Ripple is not mineable (it is a centralized private blockchain run by banks) (622 points, 254 comments)
    4. rBitcoin moderator confesses and comes clean that Blockstream is only trying to make a profit by exploiting Bitcoin and pushing users off chain onto sidechains (578 points, 188 comments)
    5. Blockstream investor emails leaked - shows Blockstream motivation to steal transaction fees from miners and pay to Liquid sidechain customers (539 points, 250 comments)
    6. Fixed - Bitcoin Cash moving money far better. SegWitCoin moving money with high fees and slow confirmation times! (532 points, 105 comments)
    7. Vitalik Buterin says what we've all been saying - CoinDesk is scammy and complicit bad actor in the cryptocurrency world and should be shunned (505 points, 59 comments)
    8. "Blockstream plans to sell side chains to enterprises, charging a fixed monthly fee, taking transaction fees and even selling hardware" source- Adam Back Blockstream CEO (498 points, 143 comments)
    9. Coinbase comes through and does the correct thing and adds clarification on the upcoming Segwit2x Fork (454 points, 194 comments)
    10. Core trolls have hard decisions to make (437 points, 140 comments)
  8. 7772 points, 1 submission: PedanticPendant
    1. The idiocracy of bitcoin (7772 points, 750 comments)
  9. 7763 points, 13 submissions: jessquit
    1. You can now store a year's worth of continuously full 8MB blocks for the cost of a single BTC transaction (1378 points, 386 comments)
    2. There never was a "scaling problem." The only problem is "people that don't want Bitcoin to scale." (772 points, 419 comments)
    3. Please stop saying "Increase the block size" (660 points, 449 comments)
    4. [PSA] If your Bitcoin are not ready-to-transact in a wallet whose keys you exclusively control, then you don't control your Bitcoin (622 points, 215 comments)
    5. Why us old-school Bitcoiners argue that Bitcoin Cash should be considered "the real Bitcoin" (587 points, 586 comments)
    6. I think we need an EDA fix before the Nov hardfork (541 points, 345 comments)
    7. Why large blocks: because one man's "coffee purchase transaction" is another man's monthly income (501 points, 104 comments)
    8. This sub is under major attack (494 points, 319 comments)
    9. There is a word for a "store of value" with no underlying utility, and that word is "collectible" (481 points, 169 comments)
    10. Ripple user comes to defend Ripple, gets hundreds of upvotes, but can't answer the most fundamental question: what prevents inflation? (459 points, 404 comments)
  10. 7400 points, 16 submissions: Windowly
    1. "If BCH hashpower > BTC, I'll start referring to it as just 'Bitcoin' :" ~ Gavin on twitter (778 points, 238 comments)
    2. You want to go grab a coffee?? (642 points, 413 comments)
    3. "I guess my idea of "freedom from corrupt banks" didn't include transaction fees that forced 99% of the world's population to keep using banks."~Erik Voorhees (603 points, 122 comments)
    4. "Bitcoin needs multiple clients and independent developer groups. There were 0-days in Microsoft Windows for two decades despite billions spent on development. Cut new teams some slack as they ramp up." ~Cornell Professor and Bitcoin researcher Emin Gün Sirer (506 points, 91 comments)
    5. "With recent developments, I'm putting all available dev resources to retool my software for #Bitcoin Cash. I suspect I'm far from alone."~Rick Falkvinge (Pirate Party) (493 points, 134 comments)
    6. "We've tested Bitcoin Cash vs Lightning Network and... LN feels so unnecessary and over-complicated. Also, still more expensive than Bitcoin Cash fees - and that's not taking into account the $3 fees each way you open or close a $50 channel. Also two different balances? Confusing" ~ HandCash (461 points, 252 comments)
    7. That Awkward Moment. . . . (429 points, 129 comments)
    8. "There was an entire mall in 2013 to 2015 in Berlin that accepted Bitcoin. This stopped when fees rose. There was wide adoption once. Fees kill use"~Dr. Craig S. Wright (424 points, 150 comments)
    9. Bitcoin Cash finally released on Open Bazaar! (420 points, 36 comments)
    10. "Billion-dollar corporations take note: Bitcoin Cash is open for business! Just try to fill up our blocks, I dare you. There will be no "Fidelity Effect" with BCH. Unlike BTC, we want you to use the Blockchain. BCH never really hits a scale ceiling."~Dr. Peter Rizun (413 points, 177 comments)
  11. 6980 points, 1 submission: boomtnt46
    1. As of today, Steam will no longer support Bitcoin as a payment method (6980 points, 1178 comments)
  12. 6385 points, 9 submissions: rdar1999
    1. South Koreans sign petition (100k signatures) to reject ban proposal and 30k signatures asking to FIRE the Justice Minister and the Finance Minister for market manipulation. Crypto is winning!! (1863 points, 117 comments)
    2. BREAKING NEWS: South Korean Government confirms NO CRYPTO BAN. What they will do is to enforce regulations, anti money laundering task force, anti market manipulation, the usual stuff. (1085 points, 51 comments)
    3. Friendly reminder: Vitalik "I consider BCH a legitimate contender for the bitcoin name." (794 points, 181 comments)
    4. Shutting down or restricting the uses of bank accounts, thereby forbidding clients to buy crypto, is a blatant affront to the rights of civil liberty, manifested, but not limited to, in the rights to private property and free speech (562 points, 262 comments)
    5. GDAX: Bitcoin Cash Launch Retrospective -- trades were halted after 3 minutes because THE STASH DRIED OUT DUE TO AN AVALANCHE OF BUY ORDERS (485 points, 162 comments)
    6. While Jamie Dimon is shutting down your accounts, Russia’s largest State Bank is about to open cryptocurrency exchange In europe (439 points, 38 comments)
    7. Flippening: says: "We have made the decision to support the only bitcoin fork with a postive utility momentum, which is Bitcoin Cash.(...) We will not add future support for the Blockstream fork of bitcoin ("Bitcoin Legacy"), and will be deprecating it entirely " (428 points, 110 comments)
    8. National Institute of Standards and Technology confirm: "Bitcoin Core (BTC) is a fork and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is the real Bitcoin" p.43 para 8.1.2 (372 points, 115 comments)
    9. TABGATE==> the astroturfing/hired shills scandal. Adam Back let it slip he hires full-time teams of social media shills/trolls. Just read! (357 points, 271 comments)
  13. 6162 points, 7 submissions: normal_rc
    1. Legacy Bitcoin tries to buy a cup of coffee (2305 points, 499 comments)
    2. WARNING: Brutal scam. Guy buys a Ledger Nano wallet on Ebay, and it steals all his cryptocurrency ($34,000, which is his life's savings). (1479 points, 522 comments)
    3. How the Bilderberg Group, the Federal Reserve central bank, and MasterCard took over Bitcoin BTC. (589 points, 220 comments)
    4. Cryptocurrency usually automatically downvotes any pro-BCH thread into oblivion. But I got my post to trend to #3 on their front page, by simply not saying "Bitcoin Cash". Proof that people would love BCH if they kept an open mind. (542 points, 202 comments)
    5. Tor Project can accept small donations again, thanks to Bitcoin Cash. (458 points, 35 comments)
    6. 100,000+ Merchants Start Accepting Bitcoin Cash. More than 100,000 BitPay merchants are now accepting Bitcoin Cash with the option seemingly automatically turned on for all of them. (416 points, 108 comments)
    7. Bitpay announcement: Electron Cash wallet now fully supports Bitpay BIP70 payment invoices for Bitcoin Cash. (373 points, 37 comments)
  14. 6023 points, 12 submissions: BitcoinIsTehFuture
    1. “Graphene” is a new Bitcoin block propagation technology that is 10x more efficient than Core’s “Compact Blocks”! Created by: Gavin Andresen, A. Pinar Ozisik, George Bissias, Amir Houmansadr, Brian Neil Levine. (717 points, 224 comments)
    2. Just so you guys know: Ethereum just had another successful hardfork network upgrade. Blockstream is wrong when they say you cannot hard fork to improve things. (655 points, 398 comments)
    3. Western Union vs. Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash (625 points, 102 comments)
    4. This was an orchestrated attack. (574 points, 373 comments)
    5. It's called "Bitcoin Cash". The term "Bcash" is a social attack run by bitcoin. Not joking. Here is the full explanation, with proof. (567 points, 310 comments)
    6. On a reply I made in bitcoin that had over 350 upvotes, I was first somehow blocked from being able to reply on bitcoin and then actually banned when I edited my comment to state that I was blocked from replying. (502 points, 99 comments)
    7. The /bitconnect subreddit just got set to private! Bitconnect experienced a 90% drop, from over $300 down to $26! The scam has gone belly up at last! (447 points, 168 comments)
    8. Bitcoin Core Dev "Luke-jr" is asked why he is interested in Bitcoin. This is one of the main people in charge of Bitcoin right now. (405 points, 383 comments)
    9. I believe Bitcoin Core/Blockstream is now attempting to infiltrate Bitcoin Cash in the same manner that they did with Bitcoin Segwit. They are suddenly befriending Bitcoin Cash. Only in that way can they destroy from within. Do not be fooled. (401 points, 166 comments)
    10. #NOTX (390 points, 56 comments)
  15. 5329 points, 1 submission: 11111101000
    1. Buy, sell, send and receive Bitcoin Cash on Coinbase (5329 points, 1019 comments)
  16. 5147 points, 2 submissions: peptocurrency
    1. Guess who controls over half a billion Tethers across 3 exchanges—over 73% of USDT currently in circulation. (4748 points, 635 comments)
    2. Dear Bitcoin: You're right. BTC has been attacked. (399 points, 107 comments)
  17. 5098 points, 9 submissions: btcnewsupdates
    1. Starbucks CEO Wants Crypto. Considering All Currencies Except Bitcoin Core (BTC): "It is not a currency today nor will it be in the future” (820 points, 218 comments)
    2. Roger Ver: "Dear @reddit, [...] I'll pay you $100,000 USD if you simply appoint a moderator to /Bitcoin who supports free speech." (804 points, 424 comments)
    3. Hundreds of botted accounts mixed with some real ones simultaneously post "Bitcoin Cash is Trash" on twitter. Blockstream reaching sheer desperation status. (719 points, 281 comments)
    4. Overstock accepts Bitcoin Cash - BCH holders can now buy Home Goods, Bed & Bath Essentials, Jewellery & More! (591 points, 115 comments)
    5. ProtonMail asking for community assistance to enable Bitcoin Cash payments (538 points, 86 comments)
    6. WooCommerce brings Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to its 380,000 online retailers. (474 points, 98 comments)
    7. A Bitcoin Entrepreneur Jonathan Hamel knowingly misleads a Canadian Parliamentary committee to smear Bitcoin Cash (BCH). More Lawlessness from Bitcoin/Lightning (399 points, 193 comments)
    8. Largest Sports Gambling Site in the World, Bovada, now Accepts BCH. Billions of dollars in transactions a year (388 points, 60 comments)
    9. Bitcoin Cash support on OpenBazaar now live (365 points, 43 comments)
  18. 4698 points, 7 submissions: cryptorebel
    1. You have $100 worth of BTC. So you purchase an item for $66, but have to pay a $17 fee. Now you have $17 worth of Bitcoin left, but it costs $17 more to move it. So $66 item effectively cost you $100. #Thanks BlockStream (1420 points, 433 comments)
    2. President of SBI Holdings: "The vision of the original Bitcoin white paper written by Satoshi Nakamoto calls for a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. That is a powerful vision, and SBI Group will devote resources to enable a future world where Bitcoin Cash is used globally for daily payments." (843 points, 81 comments)
    3. They used to use Bitcoin... (738 points, 176 comments)
    4. Elizabeth Stark of Lightning Labs admits that a hostile actor can steal funds in LN unless you broadcast a transaction on-chain with a cryptographic proof that recovers the funds. This means LN won't work without a block size limit increase. @8min17s (494 points, 433 comments)
    5. CEO of Roger Ver challenges Samson Mow to a debate once again, will Samson refuse again? The reason small blockers do not debate and need censorship is because they know their arguments cannot stand up to scrutiny. (426 points, 208 comments)
    6. Update from BitGo: "Due to strong customer interest BitGo will enable full support of Bitcoin Cash" (407 points, 25 comments)
    7. BitPay CEO hints at possible Bitcoin Cash acceptance: "We do listen to our customers and for quite some time their number 1 complaint has been the high fees and slow confirmation times. We really don't like to pre-announce things though. Things move fast and plans can change at the last minute. " (370 points, 73 comments)
  19. 4339 points, 6 submissions: Anenome5
    1. Government: "Cryptocurrencies are too risky." Also government: "Buy lottery tickets." (1296 points, 139 comments)
    2. Death of a Scamcoin: Bitconnect's front page screenshotted moments before they went private, showing panic, anger, and lots of ill-advised investment claims, several claiming to have lost over $100k (948 points, 309 comments)
    3. Let's End the War and focus on the TRUE ENEMY (730 points, 349 comments)
    4. has received over twice as many donations ($4800) in Bitcoincash as compared to BTC. This is how we win. (552 points, 157 comments)
    5. Segwhat? Gavin Andresen has developed a new block propagation algorithm able to compress the block down to 1/10th of the size of a Compact Block (Core's technology) using bloom filters called GRAPHENE. 10 times larger blocks, no size increase! 1mb 10mb, 8mb - 80mb, etc. (413 points, 181 comments)
    6. Remember Ross Ulbricht: Dread Pirate Roberts and the Silk Road experiment (400 points, 217 comments)
  20. 3746 points, 8 submissions: knight222
    1. PSA: /bitcoin IS UNDER ATTACK (761 points, 260 comments)
    2. /btc is trending! (528 points, 63 comments)
    3. Bitstamp To Launch Bitcoin Cash Trading (487 points, 80 comments)
    4. on Twitter: "We support whatever will allow bitcoin to remain censorship resistant. For now that's only possible with bigger blocks." (442 points, 39 comments)
    5. CBS is referring the new chain as "Bitcoin Cash" and the old chain as "Bitcoin Classic". Ahah (421 points, 121 comments)
    6. Bitcoin cash (BCH) price could lead to bitcoin "death spiral" - Quartz (375 points, 55 comments)
    7. Bitcoin Cash just destroyed the narrative of a contentious hard fork. There is nothing contentious with free choice. (369 points, 114 comments)
    8. Bitcoin Cash support expected in the next Mycelium release! (363 points, 84 comments)
  21. 3550 points, 6 submissions: singularity87
    1. I am stepping down as a moderator of btc and exiting the bitcoin community and entering the Ethereum community. (1110 points, 482 comments)
    2. Now that the debate is over, lets finally make some progress forward. We are starting a marketing fund to expand Bitcoin Cash adoption. (722 points, 211 comments)
    3. Bitcoin Cash Logo Animation GIF. Feel free to use. (562 points, 83 comments)
    4. The entire bitcoin economy is attacking bitcoin says! You can't make this shit up. (440 points, 270 comments)
    5. Now that REAL consensus is forming, be ready for Core to offer a 2MB hardfork as a last ditch effort to retain their power. DO NOT GIVE IN! (363 points, 179 comments)
    6. btc now has ~50% of the active users of Bitcoin. At this rate btc will soon be the dominant bitcoin subreddit. (353 points, 55 comments)

Top Commenters

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  27. shadowofashadow (3498 points, 383 comments)
  28. rdar1999 (3475 points, 456 comments)
  29. btcnewsupdates (3403 points, 328 comments)
  30. KoKansei (3286 points, 198 comments)
  31. jonald_fyookball (3219 points, 251 comments)
  32. 1s44c (3186 points, 619 comments)
  33. nanoakron (2989 points, 113 comments)
  34. NilacTheGrim (2925 points, 440 comments)
  35. singularity87 (2746 points, 240 comments)
  36. Vibr8gKiwi (2594 points, 148 comments)
  37. jstolfi (2541 points, 263 comments)
  38. esquonk (2532 points, 2 comments)
  39. fiah84 (2496 points, 289 comments)
  40. unitedstatian (2445 points, 451 comments)
  41. MobTwo (2372 points, 147 comments)
  42. chernobyl169 (2353 points, 199 comments)
  43. kairepaire (2280 points, 17 comments)
  44. ShadowOfHarbringer (2272 points, 206 comments)
  45. playfulexistence (2241 points, 99 comments)
  46. LiamGaughan (2240 points, 83 comments)
  47. redlightsaber (2238 points, 328 comments)
  48. we-are-all-satoshi (2201 points, 39 comments)
  49. Annapurna317 (2198 points, 223 comments)
  50. MagicalTux (2153 points, 114 comments)

Top Submissions

  1. Evidence that the mods of /Bitcoin may have been involved with the hacking and vote manipulation "attack" on /Bitcoin. by censorship_notifier (8585 points, 1166 comments)
  2. The idiocracy of bitcoin by PedanticPendant (7772 points, 750 comments)
  3. As of today, Steam will no longer support Bitcoin as a payment method by boomtnt46 (6980 points, 1178 comments)
  4. Buy, sell, send and receive Bitcoin Cash on Coinbase by 11111101000 (5329 points, 1019 comments)
  5. bitcoin mods removed top post: "The rich don't need Bitcoin. The poor do" by Egon_1 (4810 points, 506 comments)
  6. Guess who controls over half a billion Tethers across 3 exchanges—over 73% of USDT currently in circulation. by peptocurrency (4748 points, 635 comments)
  7. Average Bitcoin transaction fee is now above five dollars. 80% of the world population lives on less than $10 a day. So much for "banking the unbanked." by BeijingBitcoins (3417 points, 463 comments)
  8. Latest projections show BTC will break the time space continuum by cryptopicker (3292 points, 146 comments)
  9. Two biggest Bitcoin subs according to their counterparts (posted on both subs) by themetalfriend (3135 points, 232 comments)
  10. rBitcoin logic: Cashing out? You should kill yourself instead by DrunkPanda (2918 points, 560 comments)

Top Comments

  1. 2527 points: esquonk's comment in As of today, Steam will no longer support Bitcoin as a payment method
  2. 2289 points: nanoakron's comment in Evidence that the mods of /Bitcoin may have been involved with the hacking and vote manipulation "attack" on /Bitcoin.
  3. 2025 points: kairepaire's comment in As of today, Steam will no longer support Bitcoin as a payment method
  4. 2018 points: vbuterin's comment in "So no worries, Ethereum's long term value is still ~0." -Greg Maxwell, CTO of Blockstream and opponent of allowing Bitcoin to scale as Satoshi had planned.
  5. 1215 points: vbuterin's comment in Vitalik Buterin tried to develop Ethereum on top of Bitcoin, but was stalled because the developers made it hard to build on top of Bitcoin. Vitalik only then built Ethereum as a separate currency
  6. 1211 points: LiamGaughan's comment in As of today, Steam will no longer support Bitcoin as a payment method
  7. 1184 points: anothertimewaster's comment in Evidence that the mods of /Bitcoin may have been involved with the hacking and vote manipulation "attack" on /Bitcoin.
  8. 1180 points: TacoPi's comment in Buy, sell, send and receive Bitcoin Cash on Coinbase
  9. 962 points: insanityzwolf's comment in bitcoin mods removed top post: "The rich don't need Bitcoin. The poor do"
  10. 868 points: SethEllis's comment in As of today, Steam will no longer support Bitcoin as a payment method
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Is anyone else freaked out by this whole blocksize debate? Does anyone else find themself often agreeing with *both* sides - depending on whichever argument you happen to be reading at the moment? And do we need some better algorithms and data structures?

Why do both sides of the debate seem “right” to me?
I know, I know, a healthy debate is healthy and all - and maybe I'm just not used to the tumult and jostling which would be inevitable in a real live open major debate about something as vital as Bitcoin.
And I really do agree with the starry-eyed idealists who say Bitcoin is vital. Imperfect as it may be, it certainly does seem to represent the first real chance we've had in the past few hundred years to try to steer our civilization and our planet away from the dead-ends and disasters which our government-issued debt-based currencies keep dragging us into.
But this particular debate, about the blocksize, doesn't seem to be getting resolved at all.
Pretty much every time I read one of the long-form major arguments contributed by Bitcoin "thinkers" who I've come to respect over the past few years, this weird thing happens: I usually end up finding myself nodding my head and agreeing with whatever particular piece I'm reading!
But that should be impossible - because a lot of these people vehemently disagree!
So how can both sides sound so convincing to me, simply depending on whichever piece I currently happen to be reading?
Does anyone else feel this way? Or am I just a gullible idiot?
Just Do It?
When you first look at it or hear about it, increasing the size seems almost like a no-brainer: The "big-block" supporters say just increase the blocksize to 20 MB or 8 MB, or do some kind of scheduled or calculated regular increment which tries to take into account the capabilities of the infrastructure and the needs of the users. We do have the bandwidth and the memory to at least increase the blocksize now, they say - and we're probably gonna continue to have more bandwidth and memory in order to be able to keep increasing the blocksize for another couple decades - pretty much like everything else computer-based we've seen over the years (some of this stuff is called by names such as "Moore's Law").
On the other hand, whenever the "small-block" supporters warn about the utter catastrophe that a failed hard-fork would mean, I get totally freaked by their possible doomsday scenarios, which seem totally plausible and terrifying - so I end up feeling that the only way I'd want to go with a hard-fork would be if there was some pre-agreed "triggering" mechanism where the fork itself would only actually "switch on" and take effect provided that some "supermajority" of the network (of who? the miners? the full nodes?) had signaled (presumably via some kind of totally reliable p2p trustless software-based voting system?) that they do indeed "pre-agree" to actually adopt the pre-scheduled fork (and thereby avoid any possibility whatsoever of the precious blockchain somehow tragically splitting into two and pretty much killing this cryptocurrency off in its infancy).
So in this "conservative" scenario, I'm talking about wanting at least 95% pre-adoption agreement - not the mere 75% which I recall some proposals call for, which seems like it could easily lead to a 75/25 blockchain split.
But this time, with this long drawn-out blocksize debate, the core devs, and several other important voices who have become prominent opinion shapers over the past few years, can't seem to come to any real agreement on this.
Weird split among the devs
As far as I can see, there's this weird split: Gavin and Mike seem to be the only people among the devs who really want a major blocksize increase - and all the other devs seem to be vehemently against them.
But then on the other hand, the users seem to be overwhelmingly in favor of a major increase.
And there are meta-questions about governance, about about why this didn't come out as a BIP, and what the availability of Bitcoin XT means.
And today or yesterday there was this really cool big-blockian exponential graph based on doubling the blocksize every two years for twenty years, reminding us of the pure mathematical fact that 210 is indeed about 1000 - but not really addressing any of the game-theoretic points raised by the small-blockians. So a lot of the users seem to like it, but when so few devs say anything positive about it, I worry: is this just yet more exponential chart porn?
On the one hand, Gavin's and Mike's blocksize increase proposal initially seemed like a no-brainer to me.
And on the other hand, all the other devs seem to be against them. Which is weird - not what I'd initially expected at all (but maybe I'm just a fool who's seduced by exponential chart porn?).
Look, I don't mean to be rude to any of the core devs, and I don't want to come off like someone wearing a tinfoil hat - but it has to cross people's minds that the powers that be (the Fed and the other central banks and the governments that use their debt-issued money to run this world into a ditch) could very well be much more scared shitless than they're letting on. If we assume that the powers that be are using their usual playbook and tactics, then it could be worth looking at the book "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" by John Perkins, to get an idea of how they might try to attack Bitcoin. So, what I'm saying is, they do have a track record of sending in "experts" to try to derail projects and keep everyone enslaved to the Creature from Jekyll Island. I'm just saying. So, without getting ad hominem - let's just make sure that our ideas can really stand scrutiny on their own - as Nick Szabo says, we need to make sure there is "more computer science, less noise" in this debate.
When Gavin Andresen first came out with the 20 MB thing - I sat back and tried to imagine if I could download 20 MB in 10 minutes (which seems to be one of the basic mathematical and technological constraints here - right?)
I figured, "Yeah, I could download that" - even with my crappy internet connection.
And I guess the telecoms might be nice enough to continue to double our bandwidth every two years for the next couple decades – if we ask them politely?
On the other hand - I think we should be careful about entrusting the financial freedom of the world into the greedy hands of the telecoms companies - given all their shady shenanigans over the past few years in many countries. After decades of the MPAA and the FBI trying to chip away at BitTorrent, lately PirateBay has been hard to access. I would say it's quite likely that certain persons at institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs and the Fed might be very, very motivated to see Bitcoin fail - so we shouldn't be too sure about scaling plans which depend on the willingness of companies Verizon and AT&T to double our bandwith every two years.
Maybe the real important hardware buildout challenge for a company like 21 (and its allies such as Qualcomm) to take on now would not be "a miner in every toaster" but rather "Google Fiber Download and Upload Speeds in every Country, including China".
I think I've read all the major stuff on the blocksize debate from Gavin Andresen, Mike Hearn, Greg Maxwell, Peter Todd, Adam Back, and Jeff Garzick and several other major contributors - and, oddly enough, all their arguments seem reasonable - heck even Luke-Jr seems reasonable to me on the blocksize debate, and I always thought he was a whackjob overly influenced by superstition and numerology - and now today I'm reading the article by Bram Cohen - the inventor of BitTorrent - and I find myself agreeing with him too!
I say to myself: What's going on with me? How can I possibly agree with all of these guys, if they all have such vehemently opposing viewpoints?
I mean, think back to the glory days of a couple of years ago, when all we were hearing was how this amazing unprecedented grassroots innovation called Bitcoin was going to benefit everyone from all walks of life, all around the world:
...basically the entire human race transacting everything into the blockchain.
(Although let me say that I think that people's focus on ideas like driverless cabs creating realtime fare markets based on supply and demand seems to be setting our sights a bit low as far as Bitcoin's abilities to correct the financial world's capital-misallocation problems which seem to have been made possible by infinite debt-based fiat. I would have hoped that a Bitcoin-based economy would solve much more noble, much more urgent capital-allocation problems than driverless taxicabs creating fare markets or refrigerators ordering milk on the internet of things. I was thinking more along the lines that Bitcoin would finally strangle dead-end debt-based deadly-toxic energy industries like fossil fuels and let profitable clean energy industries like Thorium LFTRs take over - but that's another topic. :=)
Paradoxes in the blocksize debate
Let me summarize the major paradoxes I see here:
(1) Regarding the people (the majority of the core devs) who are against a blocksize increase: Well, the small-blocks arguments do seem kinda weird, and certainly not very "populist", in the sense that: When on earth have end-users ever heard of a computer technology whose capacity didn't grow pretty much exponentially year-on-year? All the cool new technology we've had - from hard drives to RAM to bandwidth - started out pathetically tiny and grew to unimaginably huge over the past few decades - and all our software has in turn gotten massively powerful and big and complex (sometimes bloated) to take advantage of the enormous new capacity available.
But now suddenly, for the first time in the history of technology, we seem to have a majority of the devs, on a major p2p project - saying: "Let's not scale the system up. It could be dangerous. It might break the whole system (if the hard-fork fails)."
I don't know, maybe I'm missing something here, maybe someone else could enlighten me, but I don't think I've ever seen this sort of thing happen in the last few decades of the history of technology - devs arguing against scaling up p2p technology to take advantage of expected growth in infrastructure capacity.
(2) But... on the other hand... the dire warnings of the small-blockians about what could happen if a hard-fork were to fail - wow, they do seem really dire! And these guys are pretty much all heavyweight, experienced programmers and/or game theorists and/or p2p open-source project managers.
I must say, that nearly all of the long-form arguments I've read - as well as many, many of the shorter comments I've read from many users in the threads, whose names I at least have come to more-or-less recognize over the past few months and years on reddit and bitcointalk - have been amazingly impressive in their ability to analyze all aspects of the lifecycle and management of open-source software projects, bringing up lots of serious points which I could never have come up with, and which seem to come from long experience with programming and project management - as well as dealing with economics and human nature (eg, greed - the game-theory stuff).
So a lot of really smart and experienced people with major expertise in various areas ranging from programming to management to game theory to politics to economics have been making some serious, mature, compelling arguments.
But, as I've been saying, the only problem to me is: in many of these cases, these arguments are vehemently in opposition to each other! So I find myself agreeing with pretty much all of them, one by one - which means the end result is just a giant contradiction.
I mean, today we have Bram Cohen, the inventor of BitTorrent, arguing (quite cogently and convincingly to me), that it would be dangerous to increase the blocksize. And this seems to be a guy who would know a few things about scaling out a massive global p2p network - since the protocol which he invented, BitTorrent, is now apparently responsible for like a third of the traffic on the internet (and this despite the long-term concerted efforts of major evil players such as the MPAA and the FBI to shut the whole thing down).
Was the BitTorrent analogy too "glib"?
By the way - I would like to go on a slight tangent here and say that one of the main reasons why I felt so "comfortable" jumping on the Bitcoin train back a few years ago, when I first heard about it and got into it, was the whole rough analogy I saw with BitTorrent.
I remembered the perhaps paradoxical fact that when a torrent is more popular (eg, a major movie release that just came out last week), then it actually becomes faster to download. More people want it, so more people have a few pieces of it, so more people are able to get it from each other. A kind of self-correcting economic feedback loop, where more demand directly leads to more supply.
(BitTorrent manages to pull this off by essentially adding a certain structure to the file being shared, so that it's not simply like an append-only list of 1 MB blocks, but rather more like an random-access or indexed array of 1 MB chunks. Say you're downloading a film which is 700 MB. As soon as your "client" program has downloaded a single 1-MB chunk - say chunk #99 - your "client" program instantly turns into a "server" program as well - offering that chunk #99 to other clients. From my simplistic understanding, I believe the Bitcoin protocol does something similar, to provide a p2p architecture. Hence my - perhaps naïve - assumption that Bitcoin already had the right algorithms / architecture / data structure to scale.)
The efficiency of the BitTorrent network seemed to jive with that "network law" (Metcalfe's Law?) about fax machines. This law states that the more fax machines there are, the more valuable the network of fax machines becomes. Or the value of the network grows on the order of the square of the number of nodes.
This is in contrast with other technology like cars, where the more you have, the worse things get. The more cars there are, the more traffic jams you have, so things start going downhill. I guess this is because highway space is limited - after all, we can't pave over the entire countryside, and we never did get those flying cars we were promised, as David Graeber laments in a recent essay in The Baffler magazine :-)
And regarding the "stress test" supposedly happening right now in the middle of this ongoing blocksize debate, I don't know what worries me more: the fact that it apparently is taking only $5,000 to do a simple kind of DoS on the blockchain - or the fact that there are a few rumors swirling around saying that the unknown company doing the stress test shares the same physical mailing address with a "scam" company?
Or maybe we should just be worried that so much of this debate is happening on a handful of forums which are controlled by some guy named theymos who's already engaged in some pretty "contentious" or "controversial" behavior like blowing a million dollars on writing forum software (I guess he never heard that software is open-source)?
So I worry that the great promise of "decentralization" might be more fragile than we originally thought.
Anyways, back to Metcalfe's Law: with virtual stuff, like torrents and fax machines, the more the merrier. The more people downloading a given movie, the faster it arrives - and the more people own fax machines, the more valuable the overall fax network.
So I kindof (naïvely?) assumed that Bitcoin, being "virtual" and p2p, would somehow scale up the same magical way BitTorrrent did. I just figured that more people using it would somehow automatically make it stronger and faster.
But now a lot of devs have started talking in terms of the old "scarcity" paradigm, talking about blockspace being a "scarce resource" and talking about "fee markets" - which seems kinda scary, and antithetical to much of the earlier rhetoric we heard about Bitcoin (the stuff about supporting our favorite creators with micropayments, and the stuff about Africans using SMS to send around payments).
Look, when some asshole is in line in front of you at the cash register and he's holding up the line so they can run his credit card to buy a bag of Cheeto's, we tend to get pissed off at the guy - clogging up our expensive global electronic payment infrastructure to make a two-dollar purchase. And that's on a fairly efficient centralized system - and presumably after a year or so, VISA and the guy's bank can delete or compress the transaction in their SQL databases.
Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but if some guy buys a coffee on the blockchain, or if somebody pays an online artist $1.99 for their work - then that transaction, a few bytes or so, has to live on the blockchain forever?
Or is there some "pruning" thing that gets rid of it after a while?
And this could lead to another question: Viewed from the perspective of double-entry bookkeeping, is the blockchain "world-wide ledger" more like the "balance sheet" part of accounting, i.e. a snapshot showing current assets and liabilities? Or is it more like the "cash flow" part of accounting, i.e. a journal showing historical revenues and expenses?
When I think of thousands of machines around the globe having to lug around multiple identical copies of a multi-gigabyte file containing some asshole's coffee purchase forever and ever... I feel like I'm ideologically drifting in one direction (where I'd end up also being against really cool stuff like online micropayments and Africans banking via SMS)... so I don't want to go there.
But on the other hand, when really experienced and battle-tested veterans with major experience in the world of open-souce programming and project management (the "small-blockians") warn of the catastrophic consequences of a possible failed hard-fork, I get freaked out and I wonder if Bitcoin really was destined to be a settlement layer for big transactions.
Could the original programmer(s) possibly weigh in?
And I don't mean to appeal to authority - but heck, where the hell is Satoshi Nakamoto in all this? I do understand that he/she/they would want to maintain absolute anonymity - but on the other hand, I assume SN wants Bitcoin to succeed (both for the future of humanity - or at least for all the bitcoins SN allegedly holds :-) - and I understand there is a way that SN can cryptographically sign a message - and I understand that as the original developer of Bitcoin, SN had some very specific opinions about the blocksize... So I'm kinda wondering of Satoshi could weigh in from time to time. Just to help out a bit. I'm not saying "Show us a sign" like a deity or something - but damn it sure would be fascinating and possibly very helpful if Satoshi gave us his/hetheir 2 satoshis worth at this really confusing juncture.
Are we using our capacity wisely?
I'm not a programming or game-theory whiz, I'm just a casual user who has tried to keep up with technology over the years.
It just seems weird to me that here we have this massive supercomputer (500 times more powerful than the all the supercomputers in the world combined) doing fairly straightforward "embarassingly parallel" number-crunching operations to secure a p2p world-wide ledger called the blockchain to keep track of a measly 2.1 quadrillion tokens spread out among a few billion addresses - and a couple of years ago you had people like Rick Falkvinge saying the blockchain would someday be supporting multi-million-dollar letters of credit for international trade and you had people like Andreas Antonopoulos saying the blockchain would someday allow billions of "unbanked" people to send remittances around the village or around the world dirt-cheap - and now suddenly in June 2015 we're talking about blockspace as a "scarce resource" and talking about "fee markets" and partially centralized, corporate-sponsored "Level 2" vaporware like Lightning Network and some mysterious company is "stess testing" or "DoS-ing" the system by throwing away a measly $5,000 and suddenly it sounds like the whole system could eventually head right back into PayPal and Western Union territory again, in terms of expensive fees.
When I got into Bitcoin, I really was heavily influenced by vague analogies with BitTorrent: I figured everyone would just have tiny little like utorrent-type program running on their machine (ie, Bitcoin-QT or Armory or Mycelium etc.).
I figured that just like anyone can host a their own blog or webserver, anyone would be able to host their own bank.
Yeah, Google and and Mozilla and Twitter and Facebook and WhatsApp did come along and build stuff on top of TCP/IP, so I did expect a bunch of companies to build layers on top of the Bitcoin protocol as well. But I still figured the basic unit of bitcoin client software powering the overall system would be small and personal and affordable and p2p - like a bittorrent client - or at the most, like a cheap server hosting a blog or email server.
And I figured there would be a way at the software level, at the architecture level, at the algorithmic level, at the data structure level - to let the thing scale - if not infinitely, at least fairly massively and gracefully - the same way the BitTorrent network has.
Of course, I do also understand that with BitTorrent, you're sharing a read-only object (eg, a movie) - whereas with Bitcoin, you're achieving distributed trustless consensus and appending it to a write-only (or append-only) database.
So I do understand that the problem which BitTorrent solves is much simpler than the problem which Bitcoin sets out to solve.
But still, it seems that there's got to be a way to make this thing scale. It's p2p and it's got 500 times more computing power than all the supercomputers in the world combined - and so many brilliant and motivated and inspired people want this thing to succeed! And Bitcoin could be our civilization's last chance to steer away from the oncoming debt-based ditch of disaster we seem to be driving into!
It just seems that Bitcoin has got to be able to scale somehow - and all these smart people working together should be able to come up with a solution which pretty much everyone can agree - in advance - will work.
Right? Right?
A (probably irrelevant) tangent on algorithms and architecture and data structures
I'll finally weigh with my personal perspective - although I might be biased due to my background (which is more on the theoretical side of computer science).
My own modest - or perhaps radical - suggestion would be to ask whether we're really looking at all the best possible algorithms and architectures and data structures out there.
From this perspective, I sometimes worry that the overwhelming majority of the great minds working on the programming and game-theory stuff might come from a rather specific, shall we say "von Neumann" or "procedural" or "imperative" school of programming (ie, C and Python and Java programmers).
It seems strange to me that such a cutting-edge and important computer project would have so little participation from the great minds at the other end of the spectrum of programming paradigms - namely, the "functional" and "declarative" and "algebraic" (and co-algebraic!) worlds.
For example, I was struck in particular by statements I've seen here and there (which seemed rather hubristic or lackadaisical to me - for something as important as Bitcoin), that the specification of Bitcoin and the blockchain doesn't really exist in any form other than the reference implementation(s) (in procedural languages such as C or Python?).
Curry-Howard anyone?
I mean, many computer scientists are aware of the Curry-Howard isomorophism, which basically says that the relationship between a theorem and its proof is equivalent to the relationship between a specification and its implementation. In other words, there is a long tradition in mathematics (and in computer programming) of:
And it's not exactly "turtles all the way down" either: a specification is generally simple and compact enough that a good programmer can usually simply visually inspect it to determine if it is indeed "correct" - something which is very difficult, if not impossible, to do with a program written in a procedural, implementation-oriented language such as C or Python or Java.
So I worry that we've got this tradition, from the open-source github C/Java programming tradition, of never actually writing our "specification", and only writing the "implementation". In mission-critical military-grade programming projects (which often use languages like Ada or Maude) this is simply not allowed. It would seem that a project as mission-critical as Bitcoin - which could literally be crucial for humanity's continued survival - should also use this kind of military-grade software development approach.
And I'm not saying rewrite the implementations in these kind of theoretical languages. But it might be helpful if the C/Python/Java programmers in the Bitcoin imperative programming world could build some bridges to the Maude/Haskell/ML programmers of the functional and algebraic programming worlds to see if any kind of useful cross-pollination might take place - between specifications and implementations.
For example, the JavaFAN formal analyzer for multi-threaded Java programs (developed using tools based on the Maude language) was applied to the Remote Agent AI program aboard NASA's Deep Space 1 shuttle, written in Java - and it took only a few minutes using formal mathematical reasoning to detect a potential deadlock which would have occurred years later during the space mission when the damn spacecraft was already way out around Pluto.
And "the Maude-NRL (Naval Research Laboratory) Protocol Analyzer (Maude-NPA) is a tool used to provide security proofs of cryptographic protocols and to search for protocol flaws and cryptosystem attacks."
These are open-source formal reasoning tools developed by DARPA and used by NASA and the US Navy to ensure that program implementations satisfy their specifications. It would be great if some of the people involved in these kinds of projects could contribute to help ensure the security and scalability of Bitcoin.
But there is a wide abyss between the kinds of programmers who use languages like Maude and the kinds of programmers who use languages like C/Python/Java - and it can be really hard to get the two worlds to meet. There is a bit of rapprochement between these language communities in languages which might be considered as being somewhere in the middle, such as Haskell and ML. I just worry that Bitcoin might be turning into being an exclusively C/Python/Java project (with the algorithms and practitioners traditionally of that community), when it could be more advantageous if it also had some people from the functional and algebraic-specification and program-verification community involved as well. The thing is, though: the theoretical practitioners are big on "semantics" - I've heard them say stuff like "Yes but a C / C++ program has no easily identifiable semantics". So to get them involved, you really have to first be able to talk about what your program does (specification) - before proceeding to describe how it does it (implementation). And writing high-level specifications is typically very hard using the syntax and semantics of languages like C and Java and Python - whereas specs are fairly easy to write in Maude - and not only that, they're executable, and you state and verify properties about them - which provides for the kind of debate Nick Szabo was advocating ("more computer science, less noise").
Imagine if we had an executable algebraic specification of Bitcoin in Maude, where we could formally reason about and verify certain crucial game-theoretical properties - rather than merely hand-waving and arguing and deploying and praying.
And so in the theoretical programming community you've got major research on various logics such as Girard's Linear Logic (which is resource-conscious) and Bruni and Montanari's Tile Logic (which enables "pasting" bigger systems together from smaller ones in space and time), and executable algebraic specification languages such as Meseguer's Maude (which would be perfect for game theory modeling, with its functional modules for specifying the deterministic parts of systems and its system modules for specifiying non-deterministic parts of systems, and its parameterized skeletons for sketching out the typical architectures of mobile systems, and its formal reasoning and verification tools and libraries which have been specifically applied to testing and breaking - and fixing - cryptographic protocols).
And somewhat closer to the practical hands-on world, you've got stuff like Google's MapReduce and lots of Big Data database languages developed by Google as well. And yet here we are with a mempool growing dangerously big for RAM on a single machine, and a 20-GB append-only list as our database - and not much debate on practical results from Google's Big Data databases.
(And by the way: maybe I'm totally ignorant for asking this, but I'll ask anyways: why the hell does the mempool have to stay in RAM? Couldn't it work just as well if it were stored temporarily on the hard drive?)
And you've got CalvinDB out of Yale which apparently provides an ACID layer on top of a massively distributed database.
Look, I'm just an armchair follower cheering on these projects. I can barely manage to write a query in SQL, or read through a C or Python or Java program. But I would argue two points here: (1) these languages may be too low-level and "non-formal" for writing and modeling and formally reasoning about and proving properties of mission-critical specifications - and (2) there seem to be some Big Data tools already deployed by institutions such as Google and Yale which support global petabyte-size databases on commodity boxes with nice properties such as near-real-time and ACID - and I sometimes worry that the "core devs" might be failing to review the literature (and reach out to fellow programmers) out there to see if there might be some formal program-verification and practical Big Data tools out there which could be applied to coming up with rock-solid, 100% consensus proposals to handle an issue such as blocksize scaling, which seems to have become much more intractable than many people might have expected.
I mean, the protocol solved the hard stuff: the elliptical-curve stuff and the Byzantine General stuff. How the heck can we be falling down on the comparatively "easier" stuff - like scaling the blocksize?
It just seems like defeatism to say "Well, the blockchain is already 20-30 GB and it's gonna be 20-30 TB ten years from now - and we need 10 Mbs bandwidth now and 10,000 Mbs bandwidth 20 years from - assuming the evil Verizon and AT&T actually give us that - so let's just become a settlement platform and give up on buying coffee or banking the unbanked or doing micropayments, and let's push all that stuff into some corporate-controlled vaporware without even a whitepaper yet."
So you've got Peter Todd doing some possibly brilliant theorizing and extrapolating on the idea of "treechains" - there is a Let's Talk Bitcoin podcast from about a year ago where he sketches the rough outlines of this idea out in a very inspiring, high-level way - although the specifics have yet to be hammered out. And we've got Blockstream also doing some hopeful hand-waving about the Lightning Network.
Things like Peter Todd's treechains - which may be similar to the spark in some devs' eyes called Lightning Network - are examples of the kind of algorithm or architecture which might manage to harness the massive computing power of miners and nodes in such a way that certain kinds of massive and graceful scaling become possible.
It just seems like a kindof tiny dev community working on this stuff.
Being a C or Python or Java programmer should not be a pre-req to being able to help contribute to the specification (and formal reasoning and program verification) for Bitcoin and the blockchain.
XML and UML are crap modeling and specification languages, and C and Java and Python are even worse (as specification languages - although as implementation languages, they are of course fine).
But there are serious modeling and specification languages out there, and they could be very helpful at times like this - where what we're dealing with is questions of modeling and specification (ie, "needs and requirements").
One just doesn't often see the practical, hands-on world of open-source github implementation-level programmers and the academic, theoretical world of specification-level programmers meeting very often. I wish there were some way to get these two worlds to collaborate on Bitcoin.
Maybe a good first step to reach out to the theoretical people would be to provide a modular executable algebraic specification of the Bitcoin protocol in a recognized, military/NASA-grade specification language such as Maude - because that's something the theoretical community can actually wrap their heads around, whereas it's very hard to get them to pay attention to something written only as a C / Python / Java implementation (without an accompanying specification in a formal language).
They can't check whether the program does what it's supposed to do - if you don't provide a formal mathematical definition of what the program is supposed to do.
Specification : Implementation :: Theorem : Proof
You have to remember: the theoretical community is very aware of the Curry-Howard isomorphism. Just like it would be hard to get a mathematician's attention by merely showing them a proof without telling also telling them what theorem the proof is proving - by the same token, it's hard to get the attention of a theoretical computer scientist by merely showing them an implementation without showing them the specification that it implements.
Bitcoin is currently confronted with a mathematical or "computer science" problem: how to secure the network while getting high enough transactional throughput, while staying within the limited RAM, bandwidth and hard drive space limitations of current and future infrastructure.
The problem only becomes a political and economic problem if we give up on trying to solve it as a mathematical and "theoretical computer science" problem.
There should be a plethora of whitepapers out now proposing algorithmic solutions to these scaling issues. Remember, all we have to do is apply the Byzantine General consensus-reaching procedure to a worldwide database which shuffles 2.1 quadrillion tokens among a few billion addresses. The 21 company has emphatically pointed out that racing to compute a hash to add a block is an "embarrassingly parallel" problem - very easy to decompose among cheap, fault-prone, commodity boxes, and recompose into an overall solution - along the lines of Google's highly successful MapReduce.
I guess what I'm really saying is (and I don't mean to be rude here), is that C and Python and Java programmers might not be the best qualified people to develop and formally prove the correctness of (note I do not say: "test", I say "formally prove the correctness of") these kinds of algorithms.
I really believe in the importance of getting the algorithms and architectures right - look at Google Search itself, it uses some pretty brilliant algorithms and architectures (eg, MapReduce, Paxos) which enable it to achieve amazing performance - on pretty crappy commodity hardware. And look at BitTorrent, which is truly p2p, where more demand leads to more supply.
So, in this vein, I will close this lengthy rant with an oddly specific link - which may or may not be able to make some interesting contributions to finding suitable algorithms, architectures and data structures which might help Bitcoin scale massively. I have no idea if this link could be helpful - but given the near-total lack of people from the Haskell and ML and functional worlds in these Bitcoin specification debates, I thought I'd be remiss if I didn't throw this out - just in case there might be something here which could help us channel the massive computing power of the Bitcoin network in such a way as to enable us simply sidestep this kind of desperate debate where both sides seem right because the other side seems wrong.
The above paper is about "higher dimensional trees". It uses a bit of category theory (not a whole lot) and a bit of Haskell (again not a lot - just a simple data structure called a Rose tree, which has a wikipedia page) to develop a very expressive and efficient data structure which generalizes from lists to trees to higher dimensions.
I have no idea if this kind of data structure could be applicable to the current scaling mess we apparently are getting bogged down in - I don't have the game-theory skills to figure it out.
I just thought that since the blockchain is like a list, and since there are some tree-like structures which have been grafted on for efficiency (eg Merkle trees) and since many of the futuristic scaling proposals seem to also involve generalizing from list-like structures (eg, the blockchain) to tree-like structures (eg, side-chains and tree-chains)... well, who knows, there might be some nugget of algorithmic or architectural or data-structure inspiration there.
So... TL;DR:
(1) I'm freaked out that this blocksize debate has splintered the community so badly and dragged on so long, with no resolution in sight, and both sides seeming so right (because the other side seems so wrong).
(2) I think Bitcoin could gain immensely by using high-level formal, algebraic and co-algebraic program specification and verification languages (such as Maude including Maude-NPA, Mobile Maude parameterized skeletons, etc.) to specify (and possibly also, to some degree, verify) what Bitcoin does - before translating to low-level implementation languages such as C and Python and Java saying how Bitcoin does it. This would help to communicate and reason about programs with much more mathematical certitude - and possibly obviate the need for many political and economic tradeoffs which currently seem dismally inevitable - and possibly widen the collaboration on this project.
(3) I wonder if there are some Big Data approaches out there (eg, along the lines of Google's MapReduce and BigTable, or Yale's CalvinDB), which could be implemented to allow Bitcoin to scale massively and painlessly - and to satisfy all stakeholders, ranging from millionaires to micropayments, coffee drinkers to the great "unbanked".
submitted by BeYourOwnBank to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin 2017 a Comprehensive Timeline

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submitted by BitcoinChronicler to btc [link] [comments]

Why Does Bitcoin Have Value ? Bitcoin Cost & Price Bitcoin Today & Bitcoin Money & Bitcoin Value in Dollars & Bitcoin Account Historical Price of Bitcoin (2010 - 2019) bitcoin Price Bitcoin Price Usd Official Video - YouTube Bitcoins Value dollar 10000 or Over dollar 1 million Experts Predict

Tom Lee & Rick Falkvinge predicts bitcoins price should reach in the millions of dollars per coin. Magic Money: The Bitcoin Revolution Truth about bitcoin does it have intrinsic value Warren Buffett says its a joke … But at that point it won’t make sense to measure it in US dollars, because USD won’t have any measureable value. So it’s absolutely not too late, just as it wasn’t too late when Bitcoin was at 3 dollars or at 30 dollars or at 300 dollars or at 3000 dollars." But the Pirate Party founder is not an ignorant fanboy. The profits gained during the appreciation of bitcoin is a separate issue from whether it will be a successful currency. If it is to be widely adopted, it needs to appreciate significantly in order for there to be enough value in bitcoin currency to meet the needs of millions of people for a store of value, so someone will end up profiting. Mr. Falkvinge believes its reasonable for Bitcoin to capture 1% to 10%. Mr. Falkvinge writes : This leads us to a target market cap of 600 billion to 6 trillion USD, to be fulfilled by about 6 million bitcoin, which makes for easy calculations. That means that each bitcoin would be worth $100,000 at the low m Continue reading >> The observant will note that this estimation of bitcoin’s total money supply value, while obviously a ballpark number, is less than two magnitudes smaller than the bitcoin money supply’s current valuation of 142 USD x 11.7M bitcoin = 1.66 billion USD.

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Why Does Bitcoin Have Value ?

Bitcoins Value dollar 10000 or Over dollar 1 million Experts Predict ... BITCOIN WILL HIT $5 MILLION - Rick Falkvinge London Real ... Bitcoin Time Traveler Predicts $1 Million Dollar Bitcoin By ... This video shows the historical chart of Bitcoin/USD starting year 2010 to 2019. Source: Please subscribe for ... -bitcoin price usd -best bitcoin price in united states 2020 -best bitcoin price prediction 2020 So you would like to know more about bitcoin price, I did too and here is the video that I created ... Bitcoin Cost & Price Bitcoin Today & Bitcoin Money & Bitcoin Value in Dollars & Bitcoin Account. bitcoin companies bitcoin conversion rate bitcoin cost bitcoin currency chart bitcoin daily chart ... I think Bitcoin will go to a million dollar evaluation within the next five years. I use the Kardashev scale to illustrate an example of why Bitcoin is the monetary system of a type 1 civilization ...

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