Background e intro La Union Europea y en cuestión el Area Economica Europea o single market es un colectivo de veintiocho estados, cuales en su mayoría abolieron todo tipo de controles migratorios internos. También llamado Area Schengen, aunque esta, no incluye los veintiocho miembros sino, veintiséis. De la misma manera, el “single market” o Eurosystem, mercado común europeo y su moneda de facto el Euro, ISO 4217 : EUR no se usa en todos los miembros del área política. Sin embargo todos los miembros de la Union Europea y varias de las jurisdicciones que no usan el Euro como su moneda de intercambio oficial (Romania, Polonia, Suiza, Dependencias de la corona, etc.) son parte del área SEPA compuesta por 36 miembros. SEPA, Single Euro Payment Area es un protocolo de créditos y débitos bancarios entre personas físicas o legales de rápida ejecución operando 100% bajo el estándar IBAN. Es moderno comparado con otros sistemas similares como el ACH o wires locales americanos, ciertamente anticuados y de un costo mucho mas alto de operar. Por regulación del ECB (European Central Bank) los pagos SEPA ya sean créditos o débitos deben ser gratuitos y se considera ilegal cobrar por una transferencia SEPA. Esto dicho, varias instituciones cobran un “fee” por la ejecución de transferencias SEPA bajo alguna descripción a modo de eufemismo. Si bien SEPA es considerado relativamente moderno, SEPA ICT (Instant Credit Transfer) ya se encuentra desarrollado y en proceso de implementación. Bajo el nuevo standard, las transferencias SEPA son ejecutadas en tiempo real con el fin de incentivar la implementación y adopción de las tecnologías fintech desarrolladas por privados bajo el tutelaje del ECB. Desde hace aproximadamente diez años, el ECB comenzó a liberalizar el mercado bancario a modo de desconcentrar el monopolio de la banca europea. De esta manera dieron comienzo a las entidades EMI (Electronic Money Institutions). Entidades quasi bancarias, las cuales pueden ofrecer IBANs personales de manera instantánea y emitir tarjetas de pago (en general no debito sino prepagas directamente ligadas a una cuenta personal). Regulación La flexibilización de la banca europea via fintech tiene sus rarezas, la mayoría de las nuevos “bank challengers” usaron frases del tipo “we are not a bank, we are better tan a bank” y similares. Muy cool a los ojos de un millenial rebelde sin embargo el wording es exacto. Una entidad EMI no es un banco, no está siquiera remotamente cerca de serlo. Estas entidades no operan con efectivo, ni en general ofrecen créditos, o inversiones o tasas de interés (mas allá de que la tasa de interés del ECB se encuentra en el área negativa hace años) porque la verdad es que una entidad EMI no está a autorizada a tomar depósitos en Euros. Cuando decimos “Electronic Money Institution” en realidad debería leerse más como “token”, la gente que usa crypto entenderá de manera más fácil. Al momento del depósito, la entidad mueve nuestros Euros a una cuenta a su nombre en una entidad bancaria real en general en la jurisdicción en la cual está registrada y licenciada aunque esto no es necesario. Los depósitos, a diferencia de un banco, no se pueden ofrecer a modo de prestamos ni se pueden invertir y se deben mantener segregados. Como una especie de cuenta escrow. En el mismo momento, de manera instantánea intercambia 1 for 1 cada euro por un token dentro de su plataforma al que le podemos poner el símbolo y nombre de euro pero al mismo tiempo no lo es. Al momento de efectuar un pago fuera de la plataforma el ejecutor intercambia nuevamente nuestro token por 1 euro cash que se encuentra depositado en la cuenta escrow y lo envía via SEPA o SEPA card hacia un comercio o una persona física/juridica a modo de pago. Esta pequeña diferencia hace que el statement “we are not a bank” tenga un significado mucho más verosímil en lo legal de lo aparentemente anunciado. Y por esta razón, suelen lidiar con clientes de mayor riesgo que un banco tradicional. A manera de un sandbox monetario. El problema principal, más allá de la oferta de banca básica y el peligro de que la entidad desaparezca de la noche a la mañana sin dejar rastro. Los depósitos en las EMIs no están cubiertos por el seguiro de depósitos de ninguna jurisdicción ni por el ECB. En un comienzo, hace unos años uno podía abrir una cuenta en algún país del báltico, recibir una tarjeta MasterCard en Euros y empezar a recibir pagos de manera instantánea luego de un onboarding básico de 5 minutos vía una App. Algunos proveedores inclusive ofrecen una dirección de Bitcoin a la cual, si uno envía BTC, es convertido automáticamente a depósitos en EUR a la cotización del momento del clearing de la transaccion. Suena too good to be true no? Bueno MasterCard y Visa también pensaron eso. En el 2018 cancelaron todas las tarjetas de los EMIs en Europa y renegociaron las licencias de emisión. Muchos proveedores de servicios financieros nunca emitieron tarjetas nuevamente y se dedicaron solo a cuentas virtuales. Los proveedores que sobrevivieron y encontraron su nicho se vieron en una situación grow or die. Pero como se puede crecer sin poder ofrecer más servicios bancarios, crypto estaba sufiendo un slump terrible… Ah si, licencias bancarias. Y así llegamos al presente, donde “we are not a bank” es una falacia y si, ya somos un banco. Tenemos una licencia, aseguramos tus depósitos y podemos ofrecer más servicios bancarios. El passporting de servicios está en toda su gloria, a costo de muchos de nuestros beneficios. La consecuencia principal? Todos los usuarios de riesgo, eliminados. Non-residents? Fuera, Gambling? Fuera, Crypto trading? Fuera… KYC más estricto(si se lo puede llamar asi), mayor escrutinio de transacciones, CRS, suspensiones de cuentas y otros detalles están a la orden del día. En la situación actual, siguen existiendo EMIs que hacen menos preguntas al costo de algunos Euros por mes. Donde podemos enviar y recibir fondos de un crypto Exchange o de TransferWise (a contrariedad deBruBank*… EJEM…*) y operar pagos de manera normal. No es un arreglo definitivo pero es de bajo costo y puede servir de “buffer” entre negocios que pueden atraer cierto escrutinio a nuestras cuentas en banco tradicionales. Obviamente esto es un arma de doble filo y afecta a todos los miembros de la cadena de la misma forma. En mi caso, tuve que hacer un “White listing” luego de un intercambio de emails con soporte, de cuentas en Lithuania en las Crypto Exchanges que uso porque no querían procesar mis depósitos y ponían todas mis transacciones on hold de manera indefinida. La explicación? “Too much fraud from those suppliers”. Esto dicho, para las instituciones que no son crypto friendly, esto puede ser la salvación. Un depósito de otra cuenta a tu nombre es mejor que un depósito a nombre de Kraken Payward o Bitstamp Limited. Las licencias bancarias son un gran desarrollo para el mundo fintech europeo, lamentablemente tiene un gran costo a nivel usuario. Hay muchos menos proveedores que ofrezcan servicio a no residentes. Los riesgos de los EMIs son reales, muchos han desaparecido sin dejar rastro, otros como WorldCore se vieron enrollados en lavado de dinero Ruso y cancelación masiva de sus tarjetas por parte de Visa y MasterCard Europe a punto tal que se vieron obligados a cerrar. WorldCore sigue en venta hoy día. SataBank un banco digital basado en Malta de capitales Bulgaros entro en administración para nunca más reaparecer. Otros tuvieron que reinventarse o separarse. PayMix se disolvió en dos compañías una para personas físicas y otra para personas legales. Ejemplos de este tipo existen por montones. Instituciones de interés
Globitex – UK/Lithuania https://globitex.com/euro-wallet Licencia: Crypto UK/Wallet EMI Lithuania Cuentas: Personal/Business Tarjeta: No. No residentes: Si. Detalle: Globitex es un crypto broker el cual simplifica el intercambio de crypto por fiat via el uso de un servicio de wallet (EMI) el cual posee un IBAN personalal y unico a nombre del UBO de la cuenta. El servicio tiene algunos costos sin embargo es una buena alternativa para ejecutar pagos via SEPA. En este momento 14 dias de trading sin costo, imagino que las operaciones de la cuenta si tienen costo, sin embargo desde que empezaron a ofrecer el servicio, los cargos por operar se han reducido substancialmente.
MisterTango – Lithuania https://www.mistertango.com/en/ Licencia: EMI Cuentas: Personal/Business Tarjeta: Temporalmente suspendidas. No residentes: Si. Detalle: Las cuentas funcionan, la mía personalmente desde hace más de 2 años. Existe integración a su propia exchange de crypto. Ofrecen servicios para traders de crypto y dirección de BTC con deposito a EUR instantáneo. Hay que tener en cuenta que la oferta de servicios en el pasado era muy superior. Incluía dirección de BTC, transferencias SWIFT, transferencias SEPA, tarjeta MasterCard Euro, acceso al Exchange, top up de la cuenta via tarjetas de debito/crédito y opción de una API para facturar. Hoy día está dividido en diferentes segmentos y el pricing varía según el paquete elegido, nacionalidad y residencia.
LeoPay – Bulgaria https://leopay.eu/ Licencia: EMI Cuentas: Personal/Business con preferencia a Estonian e-residents. Tarjeta: Si, debito Visa, con condición de dos tarjetas por cuenta o una tarjeta por currency. No residentes: Si. Detalle: Originalmente llamado LeuPay registrado en Malta de capitales Bulgaros. Usaban de backend SataBank, así que si leyeron lo anterior entenderán el cambio de nombre de la entidad. Cuentas multicurrency en EUR, USD, GBP, CHF, RON, HRK, JPY, BGN, PLN, CZK.
Paysera – Lituania https://www.paysera.lt/v2/lt-LT/index Licencia: EMI Cuentas: Personal/Business. Es posible obtener más de una cuenta por cliente. Tarjeta: Si, debito Visa. No residentes: Si.
PayMix Pro – Malta https://www.paymix.pro/ Licencia: Institución financiera Maltesa Cuentas: Business Tarjeta: Debito No residentes: Si.
Deutsche Handelsbank – Alemania https://www.handelsbank.com/en/bc/home-business-customers.html Licencia: Bancaria propia. Cuentas: Business. Es posible obtener más de una cuenta por cliente. Tarjeta: No. No residentes: Si. Detalle: Es un pequeño banco alemán que se especializan en cuentas únicamente para personas legales con licencia y backend bancario propio.
N26 – Alemania Licencia: Bancaria propia. Cuentas: Personal/Business Tarjetas: Debito/Crédito No residentes: No*. Detalle: No aceptan no-residentes en el Area economía europea, sin embargo si aceptan pasaporte Argentino y cualquier numero de móvil. El requerimiento es una dirección de correo en el Área Económica para recibir la tarjeta. (Chripre no es una opción para la dirección).
Revolut – Lithuania/UK https://www.revolut.com/ Licencia: Bancaria propia (UK) Cuentas: Personal/Business. Tarjeta: Si, variedad dependiendo del tier. No residentes: No* Detalle: Revolut evoluciono desde una licencia de EMI a una entidad con licencia bancaria. Siempre en las noticias por las razones equivocadas, han quedado atrás los días en los que la banca Lituana los decepcionaba. Lamentablemente los reportes de cuentas congeladas persisten y rehabilitarlas puede tardarse meses. Revoluto ofrece tarjetas con conversión de divisas usando el mid-market rate y sin FX conversion fee. Ofrecen crypto trade (CFDs) y muy recientemente una plataforma de inversiones. Si han leído mi post titulado Banca internacional #02 – United Kingdom, where it all began y repararon en el detalle de que la licencia bancaria es de Reino Unido, si, están en lo correcto. Esta entidad no puede técnicamente aceptar no-residentes si tiene una licencia bancaria ringfenced. Sin embargo, tal como es el caso con varias de alternativas, una dirección de correo dentro de Reino Unido o Europa suele bastarle a los clientes para hacerse de una cuenta. UPDATE: Recientemente Revolut agrego un setting muy interesante, la cual permite, una vez registrados como clientes cambiar la residencia fiscal. No hay muchos datos con respecto a qué efectos tiene sobre la cuenta más allá de una suspensión quasi instantánea. Sin embargo! Según la jurisdicción de residencia fiscal seleccionada, también nos puede dar como opción “Email us to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) and let’s see what we can do.”
TransferWise https://transferwise.com/ Licencia: Money transfer (UK), EMI (Lithiania) Cuentas: Personal/Business y Borderless, 4 currencies GBP, EUR, NZD, AUD y condicionalmente USD. Tarjeta: Si, MasterCard para residentes del Area Economica Europea. No residentes: Si. Detalle: Conocido por casi todos hoy día, la aplicación de cabecera para remittances elegida por todos los millenials. No es la mejor sin embargo es la que tiene mejor publicidad y estrategia. Se sabe que hay clientes quienes han usado datos postales europeos para registrarse y han logrado recibir la tarjeta en condición de no residentes.
Disponibles fuera de sus países de registro en breve
Insha – Alemania con backing de Al Baraka (Turquía) https://www.getinsha.com/ Detalle: Primer banca islámica digital en Europa. Que esto no los detenga en ver el servicio que ofrecen. Dado los servicios que ofrecen (y la carencia de interés computado en depósitos) es una plataforma idea para banca Islámica.
Kontist – Alemania https://kontist.com/ Detalle: Banca digital para pequeños negocios o freelancers con implementación de contabilidad y taxación.
Tarjetas Algunos EMIs solo ofrecen tarjetas. En general son productos sub-prime y consecuentemente los fees son usureros. No voy a entrar en detalle sobre el ofrecimiento de servicios de estos proveedores, pero les dejo algunos por una cuestión de mera curiosidad y cobertura de alternativas.
Nota final Existen muchos servicios más de tipo pseudo bancario en Europa. Podría publicar un post infinito con 500 URLs y links a cada uno de ellos. Muchos con respaldo de Bancos centenarios y prácticamente todos con requerimiento de residencia en la Unión Europea. Si desean mas información, puedo hacer un post apartado. Pero más allá del landing page, no van a poder utilizar ningún servicio. Es más fácil abrir una cuenta en un banco normal para no residentes en Europa de manera personal que intentar circunventar la legislación y regulación pertinente a los bancos o EMIs digitales reservados para Europeos. Donations.
The Dow fell 973.65, or 4.44%, to 20,943.51, the Nasdaq lost 339.52, or 4.41%, to 7,360.58, and the S&P 500 declined 114.09, or 4.41%, to 2,470.50. The stock market retreated more than 4% to start the second quarter on Wednesday, as President Trump warned that the next two weeks will be "very painful" in terms of coronavirus fatalities. The S&P 500 (-4.4%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-4.4%), and Nasdaq Composite (-4.4%) each fell 4.4%. The Russell 2000 underperformed with a 7.1% decline. In COVID-19 news, The Hill reported that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said he will sign an executive order requiring the state's residents to limit their movement outside of their homes. DeSantis has faced intense criticism for refusing to issue a stay-at-home order, the report noted. Meanwhile, the latest data from the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering shows there are now 911,308 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 45,497 deaths due to the disease. The coronavirus task force on Tuesday estimated that deaths attributed to COVID-19 could total 100,000-240,000 in the U.S. with daily deaths projected to peak in two weeks. To help contain the outbreak, and hopefully bring these figures down, Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania joined the growing list of states to issue 'stay at home' orders for 30 days. Original assumptions made by the medical community were based on the data coming out of China, which the U.S. intelligence community said underrepresented the real number of cases and deaths in the country, according to Bloomberg. The White House's projections, based on new data being released every day, had the market worried about the social and psychological effects on the economy. In U.S. data, ADP reported private payrolls fell "only" 27,000 in March, which was not as bad as many had forecast. However, ADP acknowledged the data don't really reflect the realities on the ground as a lot of the firings have taken place after the week that ended its survey. The ISM manufacturing index dropped 1.0 point to 49.1 in March, which was also not as bad as feared. Markit's manufacturing PMI was revised down to 48.5 in the final print for March. That was a little lower than the 49.2 flash reading for the month and down 2.2 points from February's 50.7 reading. Construction spending dropped 1.3% in February. In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI climbed 9.8 points to 50.1 in March, almost fully recovering from the 10.8 point drop to the record low of 40.3 in February. The better than expected bounce is in line with the surprising 16.3 point jump in the official index to 52.0. In turn, no S&P 500 sector was spared in today's sell-off with ten sectors losing at least 3.0%, including 6.1% declines in the real estate and utilities sectors. The consumer staples sector performed relatively better with a 1.8% decline. In M&A news, TMUS announced that it has officially completed its merger with S to create the new T-Mobile. The company also announced that with close of the merger, it has successfully completed its long-planned CEO transition from John Legere to Mike Sievert ahead of schedule. Among the notable losers was XRX, -7.1% withdrawing its offer to acquire HPQ, -14.5%, MAR, -7.6% disclosing a data breach that affected 5.2 million customers, and M, -9.8% being removed from the S&P 500. Shares of GM fell 7.3% after the automaker announced that it delivered 618,335 vehicles in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of about 7% compared to a year ago. "The industry experienced significant declines in March due to the outbreak of COVID-19," noted GM in its sales announcement. Meanwhile, FCAU reported a 10% decline in its first quarter sales to 446,768 vehicles, also noting that "the strong momentum in January and February was more than offset by the negative economic impact of the coronavirus in March." Additionally, Toyota North America (TM) reported that sales in March fell 36.9% on a volume basis and 31.8% on a daily selling rate basis year-over-year. Among the noteworthy gainers was KGC, which rose over 11% after it said its mines continue to operate and have not materially been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The company also withdrew guidance for fiscal 2020 in light of the outbreak. Also higher was AMRN, which surged 24.5% after Jefferies analyst Michael Yee hosted a conference call with life sciences patent lawyer Jacob Sherkow to discuss the Vascepa patent litigation. During the call, Sherkow said that he believes Amarin has a 50% chance to win an appeal and a more than 80% chance of getting an injunction. In the oil market, the Wall Street Journal reported that Cherony7 is scheduled to meet Friday with the heads of some of the largest U.S. oil companies to discuss government measures to help the industry weather an unprecedented oil crash. The meeting is to take place at the White House and will include Trump, XOM Chief Executive Darren Woods, CVX Chief Executive Mike Wirth, OXY Chief Executive Vicki Hollub and Harold Hamm, executive chairman of CLR, according to the Journal. Stocks in Asia were lower on Wednesday as a private survey showed Chinese manufacturing activity expanding slightly in March. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 led losses among the region’s major markets as it dropped 4.5% to close at 18,065.41.
The dollar advanced on Wednesday, with markets staring at what looked likely to be one of the worst economic contractions in decades as the world confronts the coronavirus pandemic. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.6% to 99.65, approaching yesterday's high.
EUUSD: -0.9% to 1.0933
GBP/USD: -0.4% to 1.2373
USD/CNH: +0.6% to 7.1290
USD/JPY: -0.3% to 107.16
U.S. Treasuries ended the midweek session on a mixed note for the second day in a row, but shorter tenors underperformed today while longer tenors recovered yesterday's losses. The long end outperformed from the start after Treasury futures rallied overnight. That rally took place as most global equity markets faced renewed selling pressure to begin Q2. 10s and 30s built on their opening gains during the first two hours of trade, while the 2-yr note headed in the opposite direction before rallying toward its high into the close. Interestingly, the late push in the 2-yr note took place as longer tenors slipped to fresh lows.
2-yr: +2 bps to 0.22%
3-yr: UNCH at 0.27%
5-yr: -1 bp to 0.37%
10-yr: -6 bps to 0.64%
30-yr: -6 bps to 1.29%
Gold prices firmed on Wednesday as investors sought safe-haven assets after somber U.S. economic data exacerbated fears of a economic downturn amid increasing lockdowns and other restrictions globally to combat the coronavirus pandemic.
WTI crude: -1.0% to $20.32/bbl
Gold: -0.1% to $1592.40/ozt
Copper: -2.3% to $2.176/lb
U.S. grain and soybean futures fell in tandem with a sinking stock market on Wednesday, with wheat down more than 3% in its largest slide in more than a month after nearly two weeks of gains fueled by coronavirus grocery stockpiling. Soybeans fell more than 2%, the most in 2-1/2 weeks, and most corn contracts posted fresh life-of-contract lows as worries over burdensome supplies weighed on prices.
Following Bitcoin’s bout of consolidation within the mid-$6,000 region, the benchmark cryptocurrency has seen a slight decline that has led it down towards the support that has been established around $6,000.
The Dow plunged 1190.95, or 4.42%, to 25766.64, the Nasdaq lost 414.30, or 4.61%, to 8566.48, and the S&P 500 dropped 137.63, or 4.42%, to 2978.76.
It was a frenetic day of trading action on /thewallstreet. The stock market extended its recent sell-off by more than 4% on Thursday in a volatile session, as the widening spread of the coronavirus heightened pessimism among investors. The S&P 500 dropped as much as 3.5% shortly after the open, then cut its losses to 0.6% by midday, but ultimately closed at session lows with a 4.4% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-4.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-4.6%), and Russell 2000 (-3.5%) experienced similar price action. Each of the major indices fell into correction territory, which is often defined as a decline of at least 10% from a recent high, and today's drop sent the S&P 500 well below its 200-day moving average (3046.58) amid heavy selling into the close. From a sector perspective, all 11 S&P 500 sectors fell between 3.3% (health care) and 5.6% (real estate). Other notable moves included WTI crude falling 3.0% to 47.24/bbl to extend its weekly decline to 12.1% and the CBOE Volatility Index surging 42.1% to 39.16 in a protection trade against further equity weakness. Regarding COVID-19, the CDC acknowledged the first coronavirus case of "unknown origin" in the U.S., which raised concerns about a community spread of the virus. California's governor fueled concerns by saying 28 people have tested positive and another 8,400 people are being monitored because of their travel. The impact to global supply chains or consumer spending remains uncertain, but Goldman Sachs warned there could be no U.S. earnings growth in 2020 if the virus becomes widespread. MSFT -7.1%, meanwhile, was the latest high-profile company to issue a quarterly revenue warning, specifically for its More Personal Computing segment. Current, and past, Fed officials offered their views on the matter. In an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh argued that the Fed and other central banks should cut rates due to the coronavirus, while Chicago Fed President Evans reiterated the Fed's stance that it's still premature to provide guidance without more data. Besides the coronavirus news, equity investors appeared to be taking cues from the Treasury market. For instance, the S&P 500's early morning low coincided with the high in the Treasury market. At session's end, the 2-yr yield declined five basis points to 1.10%, and the 10-yr yield declined basis points to 1.30%. Not all stocks closed lower, though. Face mask company (MMM) +0.8% and Bleach company (CLX) +0.4% managed to eke out small gains amid speculation that demand for some of their products will increase due to the coronavirus. Among the noteworthy gainers were VIR and NVAX, which surged 50% and 18%, respectively, as coronavirus fears mount. Both companies are working on coronavirus vaccines. Also higher were ETSY and SQ, which gained a respective 16% and 11% after reporting quarterly results. Among the notable losers was TSLA, which slid 8% after Bloomberg reported registrations of new Teslas in China plunged 46% last month as the coronavirus outbreak adds to a slump in the country's car market. SPCE fell 17% after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas downgraded the shares to Equal Weight and Credit Suisse analyst Robert Spingarn also downgraded the stock to Neutral following with the shares up 185% year-to-date. In earnings news, BBY reported better than expected sales and earnings for the fourth quarter and raised its quarterly dividend by 10%. Last night, BKNG reported "strong" Q4 results, but also cited a significant impact from the coronavirus on its forward outlook, stating that its wider than typical guidance ranges are due to "the high level of uncertainty in forecasting the coronavirus and its associated impact on the company and the travel industry generally." In its own more optimistic coronavirus update,SBUX said it is "seeing the early signs of a recovery" in China. In a letter to employees posted on its corporate blog, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson reported that the coffee giant now has 85% of stores open across China as it continues to assess the ongoing impact of the disease outbreak. Elsewhere in Europe, Stoxx 600 closed 3.6% lower provisionally, officially entering correction territory as it was off more than 10% from its record high notched on Feb. 19 last year.
The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.5% to 98.51, widening this week's loss to 0.8%.
EUUSD: +1.0% to 1.0986
GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2892
USD/CNH: -0.2% to 7.0051
USD/JPY: -0.4% to 109.99
The Treasury market has been the epicenter of concerns about the global growth outlook, as well as the frayed psychology pertaining to the COVID-19 outbreak. The 10-yr note yield is down four basis points this morning to 1.27%, leaving it down 19 basis points on the week and 65 basis points on the year. Today, the fed funds futures market expects that a rate cut will happen as soon as the March 18 meeting, followed by another cut in June. Treasuries briefly turned negative in midday trade but returned toward their opening levels after California Governor Gavin Newsom said that 28 people in California have tested positive for the coronavirus while more than 8,000 other people are being monitored.
2-yr: -5 bps to 1.10%
3-yr: -3 bps to 1.09%
5-yr: -3 bps to 1.11%
10-yr: -1 bp to 1.30%
30-yr: -1 bp to 1.78%
Oil prices continued their steep decline on Thursday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude falling more than 5% at the low to $45.88 per barrel — a price not seen since Jan. 2019 — as fears of the coronavirus outbreak, and what it could mean for crude demand, continue to batter prices.
WTI crude: -4.88% to $46.35/bbl
Gold: -0.4 at $1640.70/ozt
Copper: -0.52% to $2.55/lb
Bitcoin was fighting to keep support at a key level on Feb. 27 as markets worldwide continued to suffer from fears over coronavirus.
Bitcoin: $8,873.19 (24hr: +0.77%)
Ethereum: $231.34 (24hr: +1.52%)
Ripple: $0.24 (24hr: 3.09%)
FAAMG + some penny stocks -4.5% YTD
Spoos -7.8% YTD
Old man -9.7% YTD
Russy -9.8% YTD
BYND reports EBITDA: $9.5M (est $5.76M), Net Rev: $98.5M (est $79.8M).Sees 2020 Net Revenue: $490M To $510M (est $485.7M)
Thoughts on Corona
It is becoming abundantly clear that the spread of the coronavirus is not going to be stopped. What is not clear is the extent of the economic damage that is going to be done by its spread before the world gets comfortable with the notion that the coronavirus is debilitating, but not necessarily deadly for most sufferers. The latter is the accepted perspective when dealing with the flu, but because COVID-19 is so new and won't reportedly have a vaccine to guard against it for some time, there is some understandable fear about contracting the virus that is prompting some extreme measures to contain it. Those measures have been detrimental to the world economy in a number of respects, which include but are not limited to shutting down supply chains, restricting travel, and preventing people from going to work. At the same time, some considerable psychological damage is being done with the understanding that governments around the globe are scrambling to deal with COVID-19 in a way that hasn't been seen in a really long time. China locked down entire cities. Japan announced today that it will be closing elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide until late March. President Trump last night announced that Vice President Pence is being put in charge of the U.S. response to COVID-19. The stock market, therefore, has been getting punched by a left-right combination of growth concerns and frayed investor psychology. That combination has led to some rapid-fire selling for a market that was already stretched and counting on stronger earnings growth in 2020, which now seems unlikely to pull through as expected. The uncertainty surrounding the earnings outlook is a major headwind for the market at the moment. Summaryscrapedfromtheinterweb.Took2.30seconds.
Bitcoin is lining up a third major attempt at breaking out above $10,000 ahead of the expiry of the CME’s Bitcoin futures contract. The expiry of the contract will see 50% of open interest also expire, which is expected to cause volatile swings in the price of Bitcoin at the start of next week. During the first week of May the CME reported that open interest for its Bitcoin contract had hit an all-time high after it recovered from the gruelling sell-off in March. At the time of writing Bitcoin is trading at $9,400 after falling slightly from this morning’s high at $9,623. Moving forwards if Bitcoin can continue to trade above $8,830 and $9,200 in the short term it will continue to assert a bullish bias, while a break below these levels of support could cause a sell-off to as low as $7,100, which was the yearly open. High frequency traders, however, will be targeting a move to the upside over the coming weeks with the $10,000 level proving to be a bitter point of resistance. Breaking above a psychological level like $10,000 would indicate a change in behaviour from traders, with bullish price sentiment slowly returning after the recent halving event, which in truth turned out to be anticlimactic. As seen during the bullish phase in the market last year there are still a number of key levels of resistance above $10,000, notably $10,500 and $12,300, although what’s most important is that Bitcoin prints a lower high for the first time in 12 months.
Current live BTC pricing information and interactive charts are available on our site 24 hours a day. The ticker bar at the bottom of every page on our site has the latest Bitcoin price. Pricing is also available in a range of different currency equivalents: US Dollar – BTCtoUSD British Pound Sterling – BTCtoGBP Japanese Yen – BTCtoJPY Euro – BTCtoEUR Australian Dollar – BTCtoAUD Russian Rouble – BTCtoRUB
In August 2008, the domain name bitcoin.org was registered. On 31st October 2008, a paper was published called “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”. This was authored by Satoshi Nakamoto, the inventor of Bitcoin. To date, no one knows who this person, or people, are. The paper outlined a method of using a P2P network for electronic transactions without “relying on trust”. On January 3 2009, the Bitcoin network came into existence. Nakamoto mined block number “0” (or the “genesis block”), which had a reward of 50 Bitcoins.
The Dow fell 256.50, or 0.98%, to 25,864.78 , the Nasdaq lost 162.98, or 1.87%, to 8,575.62 , and the S&P 500 declined 51.57, or 1.71%, to 2,972.37.
The stock market ended a volatile week on a lower note with the S&P 500 (-1.7%) settling just above its low from Monday. The benchmark index gained 0.6% for the week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.0%) outperformed, gaining 1.8% since last Friday. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls surged 273,000 in February and the unemployment rate fell back to 3.5%, which matches a five-decade low. Average hourly earnings grew 3.0% year-over-year. While a very strong report, it appears to be discounted because of the coronavirus, though it provides evidence that the U.S. economy was on solid footing before it hit. The trade deficit narrowed 6.7% to $45.3B in January as exports dipped 0.4% to $208.6B and imports dropped 1.6% to $253.9B. Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% in January, but sales jumped 1.6%. In energy news, Reuters reported that OPEC's plans for prolonged oil cuts have been derailed as Russia refused to support the move contending it is too early to predict the effect of coronavirus on global energy demand. WTI crude for April delivery fell $4.62, or 10.1%, to end at $41.28 a barrel following the news of the OPEC blow-up. Also, Baker Hughes reported that the U.S. rig count is up 3 rigs from last week to 793. The final session of the week was marred by a continued deterioration of sentiment due to the ongoing spread of the coronavirus while the pressure on growth expectations intensified. Treasuries essentially never stopped after Thursday's cash close, continuing their forceful charge in the overnight futures market. Treasuries did pull back from their highs in midday trade, but the long bond rallied to a fresh record high in the afternoon while the 10-yr note stopped a bit short of its best level of the day. The 10-yr yield fell 22 basis points to 0.71%, representing a 42-basis point drop for the week. Expectations for another sharp rate cut remain in place with the fed funds futures market pointing to a 56.0% implied likelihood of a 75-basis point rate cut at or before the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on March 18. The S&P 500 staged a 70-point rally during the final hour of trade, which led to a significant improvement in final sector standings, though all eleven sectors finished in the red. Four groups surrendered 2.0% or more. Energy (-5.6%) and financials (-3.3%) were particularly weak throughout the day due to their exposure to growth and concerns about issuers of high-yield debt in the energy sector. Bank stocks suffered from the drop in Treasury yields while energy companies struggled as oil fell $4.57, or 10.0%, to $41.32/bbl. The energy component ended the day at its lowest level since mid-2016 after OPEC+ could not agree to a sharp production cut despite yesterday's reports to the contrary. Russia's Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, said that OPEC+ countries are free to pump at will starting from April 1. Shares of JPM were sharply lower amid the pullback in the market, though the bank's declines may also be made worse by news that CEO Jamie Dimon experienced an acute aortic dissection and underwent successful emergency heart surgery to repair the health issue. Co-Presidents and Chief Operating Officers Daniel Pinto and Gordon Smith will lead the company as Dimon recovers, the bank confirmed. Shares of AAPL were lower after a fourth supplier cut guidance amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. ON cut its first quarter revenue outlook this morning, becoming the fourth Apple supplier to cut guidance this week after QRVO, SWKS and MCHP did so as well. In company-specific news, COST reported better than expected Q2 results, but the stock still finished lower. AMD fared better than the broader market after reaffirming its guidance for FY20. The chipmaker did caution that Q1 results are likely to be on the low end of its guidance. Among the noteworthy gainers were MRNA and OPK, which have each recently reported on efforts linked to combating the coronavirus. Airline stocks like ALK +4.0%, JBLU +0.1%), UAL, +1.0%, and DAL, +2.0% recorded gains on Friday after recovering from fresh multi-year lows. Alaska Air did warn that its guidance for FY20 should no longer be relied upon due to coronavirus-related uncertainty. Among the notable losers was AOBC, which fell 30% after the gunmaker reported fiscal Q3 results below consensus and guidance. SBUX shares slid 1% after the company provided an update on the impact related to COVID-19 in China. Stifel analyst Chris O'Cull said the earnings impact to Starbucks' fiscal Q2 is likely larger than he projected, be he also pointed out that Starbucks noted there has been no perceptible impact from COVID-19 on the U.S. business. Shares of cruise operators started the day in positive territory but retreated as the day went on. NCLH, -5.2% was the weakest performer of the bunch, stopping just above its record low (24.16) that was notched when the company went public in early 2013. European stocks also fell sharply Friday as the coronavirus outbreak continues to impact businesses worldwide.
The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.9% to 95.98 and was down 2.2% for the week as rate-cut expectations boiled over. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 100% probability of another 50 basis points cut at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and a 63% probability of a 75 basis points cut.
EUUSD: +0.7% to 1.1317
GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.2993
USD/CNH: -0.2% to 6.9260
USD/JPY: -0.9% to 106.90
U.S. Treasuries had another huge day as the stock market racked up another day of huge losses amid ongoing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and budding credit worries. The 10-yr yield, which settled Thursday at 0.93%, went as low as 0.66% in today's curve-flattening trade before losing some steam.
2-yr: -9 bps to 0.49% (-39 bps for the week)
3-yr: -11 bps to 0.51% (-38 bps for the week)
5-yr: -11 bps to 0.56% (-36 bps for the week)
10-yr: -22 bps to 0.71% (-43 bps for the week)
30-yr: -35 bps to 1.22% (-45 bps for the week)
Oil prices plunged more than 8% to multi-year lows on Friday as OPEC’s allies rejected additional production cuts that the organization proposed Thursday. The meeting between OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, concluded with no deal on additional production cuts.
WTI crude: -8.2% to $42.15/bbl
Gold: +0.3% to $1673.50/ozt
Copper: -0.6% to $2.56/lb
Lean Hogs +0.84
Live Cattle -2.67
As global equity markets continue to get pummeled, bitcoin’s return to the $9,000 level may have been driven by some of the same forces causing a rally in bonds – a desire for respite from a coronavirus-plagued markets.
Bitcoin: $9,112.70.19 (24hr: -0.09%)
Ethereum: $240.04 (24hr: +3.72%)
Ripple: $0.24 (24hr: 1.03%)
Bonds, Virus and Valuation
The move in Treasuries has been precipitated by flight-safety flows that have been fueled by economic growth concerns stemming from the spread of the coronavirus. It has also been stoked by momentum, interest rate differentials, and policy stimulus expectations, the latter of which have also been nothing short of stunning. The CME FedWatch Tool is showing a 100% probability of another 50 basis points cut at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and a 64% probability of a 75 basis points cut. Those expectations capture the view that the coronavirus isn't "just another flu." It might have similar characteristics, but when was the last time entire cities were quarantined, professional sporting events were canceled, travel restrictions were imposed, orchestrated efforts to force employees to work from home, states of emergency were declared, U.S. schools were closed, and the Federal Reserve ushered in an emergency 50 basis points rate cut because of the flu? Coronavirus is quite different from the flu because the reaction to it has been universally different -- and that reaction is what gets lost in the debate as to whether the coronavirus is "just another flu." Rightly or wrongly, the coronavirus is creating an economic disruption in a manner no normal flu has in our modern age and that is the important distinction for the capital markets and policymakers. It's another reason why the strong employment report for February has been glossed over for the most part by the market. At any other time, the Treasury market would be selling off on today's report, and, arguably, the futures market would be moving sharply higher -- but this isn't any other time. The key takeaway from the report isn't what was in the report, it was the lackluster response to it, which is a function of expecting employment reports in coming months not to look as good because of the coronavirus impact. The market multiple has contracted to 16.7x, which is now in-line with the five-year average -- only it isn't because earnings estimates are going to fall further.
The Dow fell 112.93, or 0.40%, to 27,821.09 , the Nasdaq fell 43.93, or 0.51%, to 8,526.73 , and the S&P 500 declined 11.72, or 0.38%, to 3,108.46. The S&P 500 declined as much as 0.9% on Wednesday after Reuters reported that a Phase One trade deal may not get completed this year. Stocks cut losses throughout the afternoon, leaving the benchmark index down 0.4% for the session -- comparable to the losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%), and Russell 2000 (-0.4%). The negative-sounding headline conflicted with the optimistic tone struck by top White House officials, including Commerce Secretary Ross just last night. Also transpiring last night was the U.S. Senate passing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, much to the contempt of China. Altogether, it seemed like a good time to take profits, especially if the Dec. 15 tariffs still go into effect. The trade-sensitive areas of the market like the S&P 500 materials (-1.2%), industrials (-0.8%), and information technology (-0.7%) sectors led the decline. The communication services sector (-0.8%), which contains many growth-oriented stocks, also underperformed. Unsurprisingly, though, selling pressure quickly abated amid an opportunistic mindset among investors eagerly awaiting a dip. In addition, the details of the report were not as foreboding as the headline, and knee-jerk selling, suggested. Tucked in the report was a line indicating that some "China and trade experts" were still optimistic about a deal in the coming weeks. Leading the afternoon comeback was the energy sector (+1.0%), which found reprieve amid a 3% rebound in oil prices ($56.91, +1.70, +3.1%). The defensive-oriented utilities (+0.6%), consumer staples (+0.2%), and real estate (+0.03%) sectors also finished in positive territory. Separately, the release of the FOMC Minutes from the October meeting didn't draw much attention, as it was consistent with the prevailing view about monetary policy since that meeting. Economic data was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which declined 2.2% following a 9.6% increase in the prior week. Among the noteworthy gainers was TGT, which jumped 12% after the retailer reported better than expected sales and profits for the third quarter and raised its full-year forecast ahead of the critical holiday quarter. Discussing the results, chairman and CEO Brian Cornell touted that Target is "seeing industry-leading strength across multiple metrics, from the top line to the bottom line.". LOW is also rising 4% following its own "beat and raise" third quarter report, with CEO Marvin Ellison attributing the "strong" earnings per share growth to the company's "improved execution. Also higher was was PAYC, which rose 8.46% after RBC Capital Mkts upgraded to Outperform,which states that it is "increasingly confident in [co's] ability to realize price, improve retention, and drive a long runway of continued market disruption and penetration." The stock, which had already risen by +13% month-to-date as of yesterday's close, today touched up to new all-time highs. I also gained 15% after Raymond James analyst Richard Prentiss upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform. Among the notable losers was PDD, which dumped 23.04% after missing consensus for Q3 EPS. WBK sinked to its lowest levels since last December on higher than average volume after being accused by regulators of breaching anti-money laundering laws. Co's management acknowledged co's recognition that certain issues pertinent to the proceedings, such as a previously disclosed self-reported failure to report a large number of international funds transfer instructions, "should never have occurred and should have been identified and rectified sooner"; co "is carefully reviewing the claim and will be working constructively with AUSTRAC to resolve the matter." Also lower was URBN, which slid 14% after reporting quarterly results along with China's PDD, which fell 21%. GM filed a lawsuit today in U.S. District Court in Detroit alleging FCAU got an unfair business advantage by bribing officials of the United Auto Workers union, Tom Krisher of Associated Press reported . The suit alleges that Fiat corrupted the bargaining process with the UAW in the 2009, 2011 and 2015 union contracts to gain advantages over GM. Shares of Fiat Chrysler were down 2.5% immediately following the AP's report, while GM was down 2%. Elsewhere, The pan-European Stoxx 600 was 0.3% lower at the closing bell. Mainland Chinese stocks ended the day lower, with the Shanghai composite down 0.78% to 2,911.05 and the Shenzhen component shedding 0.82% to 9,809.05. The Shenzhen composite was around 0.707% lower at 1,635.16. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped about 0.73%, as of its final hour of trading.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.1% to 97.93.
EUUSD: -0.1% to 1.1073
GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2918
USD/CNH: +0.2% to 7.0385
USD/JPY: +0.1% to 108.59
U.S. Treasuries enjoyed another day of solid gains that pressured yields on the 5-yr note, the 10-yr note, and the 30-yr bond back below their respective 50-day moving averages. Treasuries backed off their morning levels in midday trade but jumped to fresh highs after Reuters reported that the partial trade deal with China may not get signed this year. President Trump was asked about negotiations with China a bit later, to which he responded, "China wants to make a deal. The question is: Do I want to make a deal? Because I like what's happening right now. We're taking in billions and billions of dollars."
2-yr: -2 bps to 1.57%
3-yr: -3 bps to 1.56%
5-yr: -4 bps to 1.58%
10-yr: -5 bps to 1.74%
30-yr: -5 bps to 2.20%
Oil gained more than 3% on Wednesday after data showed a smaller than expected build in U.S. inventories. The move also came as tensions in the Middle East rose, with Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed they intercepted a Saudi warplane. Gold fell, retreating from a two-week high hit earlier in the session,** after the United States started issuing licenses for some companies to supply goods to Chinese firm Huawei, rekindling hopes for trade negotiations that had shown signs of turning more contentious.**
WTI crude: +3.1% to $56.91/bbl
Gold: UNCH at $1474.20/ozt
Copper: -0.2% to $2.651/lb
As it stands, most of the cryptocurrencies in the top 30 by market capitalization are in the red, with BTC, ETH and XRP down between 1-2% each.
Bitcoin: $8,045.85 (24hr: -1.86%)
Ethereum: $175.69 (24hr: -0.29%)
Ripple: $0.25 (24hr: -0.79%)
Old Man +18.0%
SONO Earnings - EPS (28c) vs (22c). 4Q Rev. $294.2M, Est. $289.2M
U.S. Senator Markey: Amazon Ring's policies 'open door' for privacy violations
The Dow fell 391.00, or 1.49%, to 25,896.44, the Nasdaq lost 95.73, or 1.2%, to 7,863.41, and the S&P 500 declined 35.95, or 1.23%, to 2,882.70. The stock market fell more than 1% on Monday, as uncertainties about the global economy continued to push investors away from risk assets and into safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, which was comparable to the declines in the Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%) and Russell 2000 (-1.2%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.5%. U.S. corporate and economic news was sparse on Monday, which helped attention focus on the government protests in Hong Kong, the political instability in Italy and Argentina, and the lack of improvement in U.S.-China trade relations. Economists from Goldman Sachs added to the sour mood, stating that they are not expecting a U.S.-China trade deal before the 2020 presidential election. In other words, Monday featured plenty of negative-minded speculation, although it was understandable given the amount of negative developments around the world and the lack of good news. Perhaps the most startling development in the capital markets was the persistent decline, and compression, in U.S. Treasury yields. This compression in yields not only hit investor sentiment but was also affected the S&P 500 financials sector (-1.9%), which led all 11 S&P 500 sectors in losses. Banks typically rely on healthy net interest margins to boost profit and facilitate lending activity. The other rate-sensitive sectors -- real estate (-0.3%) and utilities (-0.3%) -- outperformed but still finished lower. An inversion of the 2-10 spread is widely viewed as a recession indicator, although an inversion does not necessarily predict one. Markets in Argentina were reeling on Monday after President Mauricio Macri, who is known for being pro-business, lost a primary election on Sunday. Argentina's peso had weakened about 25% against the dollar in early trading amid investor concerns about the potential return to power of Argentina's Peronist movement under Alberto Fernandez and his running mate, former president Cristina Kirchner. Fernandez has pledged to undo many of Macri's market-friendly policies and the surprising primary results has been followed by sharp slides for many stocks linked to Argentina that trade in New York, including MercadoLibre (MELI), Banco Macro (BMA), Despegar.com (DESP), Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL), Loma Negra (LOMA), Pampa Energia (PAM), Telecom Argentina (TEO), YPF (YPF) and Arcos Dorados (ARCO). Among the notable gainers was ROKU, after Needam analyst Laura Martin raised its price target to $150 saying Netflix “has the most to lose. Also higher was AMGN, which gained 6% after a United States District Court judge in New Jersey ruled on Friday in the company's favor in a patent fight with NVS. Shares of MU were on the rise in late trading on Monday as the company's CFO said that "demand has come back". Meanwhile, CPB was in focus after Sky News reported that Valeo Foods Group is in advanced talks to acquire Campbell's Kettle Foods operations in the U.K. and Ireland. The deal, which could be reached in the coming days, is expected to be worth more than GBP50M, according to Sky. The news comes after Campbell Soup announced earlier this month that it signed an agreement to sell Arnott's and other international operations to KKR for $2.2B in cash. Additionally, New York Attorney General Letitia James said via Twitter that Oregon has joined her state's lawsuit to block the merger of TMUS and S. James added in the tweet that the coalition involved in the suit includes 16 states. A New York AG spokesperson told Dealreporter last week that the office was in talks with a "handful" of other states that were considering whether to sign onto the lawsuit. In Asia overnight, stocks were mostly higher, with the China CSI 300 rising 1.8%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI meanwhile lost 0.4%. European stocks were trading lower Monday, down 0.2%, as measured by the Stoxx Europe 600.
The U.S. dollar index was roughly flat on Monday and sterling and the euro saw a modest rise as the foreign exchange market fell into an August lull, a traditionally quiet trading period with many investors and traders on vacation.
EUUSD: +0.2% to 1.1214
GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.2075
USD/CNH: +0.1% to 7.0989
USD/JPY: -0.3% to 105.32
U.S. Treasuries spent the Monday session in a steady advance, pressuring the 30-yr yield to a fresh low for the year while the 10-yr yield approached its low from last week. The daylong rally was not fueled by a particular news catalyst but was rather a function of disappointment over the lack of an improvement in the official relationship between China and the United States. The spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr yields narrowed to six basis points, as demand for longer-dated tenors continued to climb amid growth concerns. The 2-yr yield fell five basis points to 1.58%, and the 10-yr yield fell ten basis points to 1.64%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 97.43.
2-yr: -5 bps to 1.68%
3-yr: -6 bps to 1.51%
5-yr: -8 bps to 1.48%
10-yr: -10 bps to 1.64%
30-yr: -12 bps to 2.13%
Oil prices rose on Monday despite worries about a global economic slowdown and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, which has reduced demand for commodities such as crude.
WTI crude: +0.4% to $54.81/bbl
Gold: +0.5% to $1517.20/ozt
Copper: -0.6% to $2.57/lb
Corn and soybean futures both fell sharply Monday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's August production estimates projected larger-than-expected crops following an extremely wet spring that severely delayed corn planting, followed by dry conditions across much of the Midwest. Corn for December delivery CZ19 on the Chicago Board of trade fell 25 cents to $3.9275 a bushel, a decline of 6%. November soybeans SX19 dropped 11.5 cents, or 1.3%, to $8.8075 a bushel. The report estimated that U.S. farmers would produce 13.9 billion bushels of corn, down 4% from last year but larger than analysts had expected. Soybean production is forecast to fall 19% from last year to 3.68 billion bushels.
Bitcoin: $11,414.76 (24hr: +0.02%)
Ethereum: $212.19 (24hr: -1.68%)
Ripple: $0.30 (24hr: -1.29%)
Old Man +11.0%
Investors will receive the Consumer Price Index for July on Tuesday.
The Dow rose 4.74, or 0.02%, to 24,819.78, the Nasdaq lost 120.13, or 1.61%, to 7,333.02, and the S&P 500 declined 7.61, or 0.28%, to 2,744.45. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% on Monday, as shares of big tech companies fell on various reports that heightened antitrust concerns. Lingering trade and growth concerns also helped curb risk sentiment and underpin the strength in U.S. Treasuries. A swarm of buyers in the last 30 minutes of action, however, helped the broader market close off its session lows. Reports of potential antitrust investigations into the biggest names in technology sunk stocks from the outset and weighed most heavily on the Nasdaq. Those worries, at least for a day, supplanted ongoing concerns about the trade fights that the U.S. is waging with both China and Mexico, though a number of lackluster PMI readings were a reminder that global growth worries have not gone away even if they were not front and center in today's trading. The tech-sensitive Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%. FB, GOOGL, AMZN were all singled out in various reports indicating that the companies could face antitrust scrutiny by the Department of Justice and/or Federal Trade Commission. These companies represent some of the most widely-held stocks in the U.S., and their out-sized losses weighed heavily on the Nasdaq and on the S&P 500 communication services (-2.8%), information technology (-1.8%), and consumer discretionary (-1.2%) sectors. The other eight S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by materials (+3.4%), to provide offsetting support. In other Apple news, the iPhone maker kicked off its Annual Worldwide Developers Conference, during which the company unveiled a new Apple Mac Pro and Pro Display XDR, the watchOS 6 operating system for Apple Watch devices, iPadOS with a new home screen and split view, the new tvOS 13 system for Apple TV, iOS 13 with Dark Mode, and a new App Store for the Apple Watch. BA shares slipped fractionally after the Federal Aviation Administration announced yesterday in a statement that the planemaker informed the agency that certain 737 NG and 737 MAX leading edge slat tracks may have been improperly manufactured and may not meet all applicable regulatory requirements for strength and durability. Persisting concerns about trade and growth helped restrain buying conviction throughout the day. China blamed the U.S. for the setback in trade talks, which reinforced fears that a protracted trade war will squeeze global growth, and earnings, prospects. Global manufacturing PMI data, including in the U.S., revealed slower or flat growth in May. On a related note, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (FOMC Voter) said that slower economic growth could be sharper-than-expected due to the trade uncertainty. Mr. Bullard added that a rate cut may soon be warranted to boost inflation. Growing expectations for a rate cut, and general growth concerns, helped send the 2-yr yield down 12 basis points to 1.83%. The 10-yr yield declined six basis points to 2.08%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 97.22. WTI crude decreased 0.5% to $53.25/bbl, giving up an intraday rebound effort. Among the noteworthy gainers was SMTA, which rose 19.8% after it agreed to be acquired by HPT for $2.4B. Hospitality Properties shares were 2.4% lower after the news. Also higher was EE, which gained 13.7% after it agreed to be acquired by the Infrastructure Investments Fund for $68.25 per share. Among the notable losers was TRUE, which fell 18.7% after announcing the retirement of president and CEO Chip Perry. Also lower was CNC, which declined 10.3% after Humana (HUM) confirmed that it will not propose a merger with Centene. Humana shares were 2.2% higher after the news. Stocks in Asia were mixed on Monday amid increasing concerns over the state of global trade. European stocks see-sawed Monday, as fears over the current state of global trade remained in place. Sharp early losses were erased during the afternoon session.
The U.S. dollar fell on Monday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said an interest rate cut “may be warranted soon”.
EUUSD: +0.8% to 1.1256
GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.2670
USD/CNH: -0.3% to 6.9191
USD/JPY: -0.3% to 107.92
U.S. Treasuries rallied sharply overnight, bolstered by some disappointing manufacturing PMI readings out of the eurozone and the release of a White Paper from China's government that placed the blame on the U.S. for the breakdown in trade negotiations. The Treasury market has already been pricing in the prospect of a rate cut (or two) before the end of the year, as growth concerns have picked up noticeably amid the trade standoff between the U.S and China, as well as President Trump's announcement last week that a 5% tariff will be applied on all imports of goods from Mexico, effective June 10, if the Trump Administration does not feel Mexico is doing enough to curb the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S.
2-yr: -12 bps to 1.83%
3-yr: -11 bps to 1.79%
5-yr: -9 bps to 1.84%
10-yr: -6 bps to 2.08%
30-yr: -4 bps to 2.54%
Oil futures ended the session lower after back-and-forth trading on Monday, as Saudi comments indicating OPEC would extend supply cuts supported prices. Gold climbed more than 1.5% on Monday to its highest level in more than three months on concerns that U.S.-Chinese trade tensions and Washington’s threat of tariffs on Mexico would hurt the global economy. July Natural Gas settled $0.05 lower (-2.3%) at $2.403/MMBtu. Precious metals rose as they tend to do in a flight to safety. June gold futures broke out to a four-month high, settling the session $16.90 higher (+1.3%) at $1322.70/oz. July silver settled $0.173 higher (+1.2%) at $14.74/oz.
After seeing a short recovery attempt yesterday, crypto markets have seen another negative correction, with most of the 20 major coins in the red.
Bitcoin: $8,575.52 (24hr: -1.40%)
Ethereum: $262.22 (24hr: -2.38%)
Ripple: $0.44 (24hr: +0.54%)
Dirty W +10.5%
Old Man +6.4%
NFLX upgraded at Loop Capital
Box falls 11% after disappointing guidance.
House to pass $19 billion disaster aid bill and send it to Trump
COUP up 5% after beating estimates. 81.3M VS. $56.4M
Looking ahead, investors will receive the Factory Orders report for April on Tuesday.
Exchanges The best way to support XRP is to buy/sell XRP directly with your local currency, not with USDT, ETH, LTC, or BTC. Available XRP pairs - AUD, BRL, CAD, CNY, EUR, GBP, IDR, INR, JPY, KRW, MXN, PHP, RUB, THB, TRY, UAH, USD, ZAR. You can find the complete list of XRP exchanges and supported XRP/fiat pairs Here.
Bitcoin as the Ultimate Haven from Hyperinflation: A Country By Country Analysis Of Worldwide Fiat Currency Inflation
https://cryptoiq.co/bitcoin-as-the-ultimate-haven-from-hyperinflation-a-country-by-country-analysis-of-worldwide-fiat-currency-inflation/ Bitcoin was created during the Great Recession that started in 2008, when the governments of the world printed trillions of dollars to bail out banks and corporations. Satoshi Nakamoto intended Bitcoin to be a decentralized form of money that could not be printed by governments at will. In the the Genesis Block Satoshi included the message “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of the second bailout for banks.” Fiat currencies continue to be the dominant form of global currency, but it seems logical that, if fiat currencies were to hyperinflate and collapse, Bitcoin would become the dominant global currency. This is because Bitcoin can be sent instantly anywhere in the world and is cryptographically secure. It is easy enough to integrate Bitcoin into any e-commerce store or physical store, and the customers of the future will be able to send Bitcoin from their smartphones via QR codes. Therefore, if fiat currency becomes obsolete, Bitcoin could seamlessly take its place and keep the global economy running. There has been plenty of hype that fiat currencies are collapsing, but this article will explore the current state of major fiat currencies in the world to ascertain the true situation. This is important information since the rate of fiat currency inflation by country is an important factor that will determine Bitcoin adoption rates and ultimately Bitcoin’s price. United States’ Inflation Rate The United States is perhaps the best place to start an analysis of global fiat inflation, since the USD is the world’s dominant fiat currency and perhaps the most stable long term. That being said, there is 2-3 percent annual inflation in the United States. If we split the difference at a 2.5 percent annual inflation rate, it means $100,000 stored in a bank will lose a whopping $22,400 of value over the course of 10 years, corresponding to 22.4 percent inflation per 10 years. Therefore, even in the United States, saving money long term seems impractical, and this essentially forces people to risk their savings by investing in the hopes that the money earned from investing will outpace inflation. It appears inflation will only worsen in the United States since the national debt is approaching $22 trillion, with a budget deficit of $1 trillion per year and growing. This situation will likely lead to increased money printing, which would increase the inflation rate. Therefore, saving money in USD long term does not make financial sense. Bitcoin is an alternative way to store money long term, although Bitcoin has yet to mature and can be extremely volatile from year to year. Euro (EUR) Inflation Rate Is 37.5 percent Relative To USD During The Last 10 Years One of the primary global currencies besides the USD is the Euro (EUR). For the rest of this global analysis, fiat currencies will be compared to the USD exchange rate to determine inflation, but it must be kept in mind that the USD itself is inflating at the rate of 2 to 3 percent per year. When the EUR launched in 1999, the exchange rate was one USD per 0.85 EUR. By 2002 the EUR weakened to 1.16 EUR per USD. The EUR then entered a period of vigorous strengthening, and the exchange rate fell to 0.64 EUR per USD by 2008. The Great Recession caused the EUR to begin weakening versus the USD long term, and currently each USD is worth 0.88 EUR. This represents 37.5 percent inflation relative to the USD in roughly 10 years. Back to the storing money in a bank analogy, $100,000 of EUR stored over the past 10 years would have lost the EUR inflation rate + the USD inflation rate. With this sort of inflation rate it seems dangerous to store money in EUR long term. It gets worse. The EUR is one of the top global fiat currencies, and there are many currencies doing worse than the EUR. United Kingdom’s Pound Has 65 Percent Inflation Relative to USD in 11 Years The United Kingdom (UK) is one of nine European Union (EU) countries that does not use the EUR, and eventually, the UK will leave the EU via the Brexit. However, the native Great Britain Pound (GBP) has done far worse than the Euro, with the exchange rate going from 0.48 GBP per USD in 2007 to 0.79 GBP per USD currently. This is 65 percent inflation relative to the USD during the past 11 years. Canada’s Inflation Rate Is 45.2 Percent Relative to USD During the Last 7 Years The United States’ neighbor to the north is similar to the United States in many respects. It is a fully developed and industrialized first world country. However the native fiat currency, the Canadian Dollar (CAD), has been experiencing severe inflation since the Great Recession. In 2011 1 USD was worth 0.95 CAD, and now the exchange rate is 1.36 CAD per USD. This represents 43.2 percent inflation relative to the USD since 2011, and of course, the USD has an underlying inflation rate as well of 16.2 percent during the last 7 years. Even in the first world country of Canada, it is becoming impossible to save cash for retirement or even for short-term goals like buying a house, forcing people to invest in the risky stock market. Mexico’s Inflation Rate Is 97.6 Percent Relative to the USD During Past 10 Years Since the 2008 financial crisis, the exchange rate of the Mexican Peso (MXN) has gone from 10.12 MXN per USD to 20 MXN per USD. This represents 97.6 percent inflation relative to the USD, and USD inflation means the true Mexican inflation rate is well over 100 percent per 10 years. This sort of inflation rate ensures that people have to work their entire lives and can never retire, and overall, this sort of inflation can cause the entire economy of Mexico to struggle. Bitcoin seems like an obvious alternative to holding MXN long term. It is quite shocking that a country bordering the United States has such high inflation, yet the mainstream media never mentions it. Russia Has 194 Percent Inflation Relative to USD Since the 2008 Great Recession Russia is a global superpower, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of $1.58 trillion versus the United States’ $19.39 trillion GDP. Despite being a superpower, the native currency of Russia, the Russian Ruble (RUB), has gone from 23.48 RUB per USD in 2008 to 69.08 RUB per USD currently. This yields a 194 percent 10 year inflation rate relative to the USD. Clearly, the Great Recession that started in 2008 is a common point when fiat inflation accelerated in many countries around the world. Japan’s Inflation Rate Is 46 Percent Relative to USD Over the Past 7 Years Japan is a first-world country and has one of the most important stock markets in the world. The GDP of Japan is ranked number three in the world at nearly $5 trillion. However, its inflation rate is far higher than the United States, at least since 2011. In 2011, the exchange rate was 76 JPY per USD, but it has now risen to 111 JPY per USD, a 46 percent inflation rate relative to the USD over the past 7 years. This is actually almost exactly the same as Canada’s inflation rate. China’s Inflation Is Only 14.4 Percent Relative to USD Since 2013, but China Tightly Controls the CNY China is the second ranking economy in the world with a $12 trillion GDP. Its position as the number one trading partner of the United States gives it power to manipulate the exchange rate of its native currency the Chinese Yuan (CNY). The CNY actually strengthened greatly versus the USD until 2013, when China relaxed its control over the CNY exchange rate to make it more competitive in the global import and export markets. Chinese control over the CNY and therefore, control over the profitability of Chinese imports, is a primary reason for the “trade war” between China and the United States. Since allowing the CNY to lose value relative to the USD, the exchange rate has gone from 6.04 CNY per USD in 2013 to 6.91 CNY per USD currently, a 14.4 percent inflation relative to the USD in 5 years. China is an outlier and has one of the lowest inflation rates relative to the USD. Switzerland Has One Of The Lowest Inflation Rates At Less Than 5 percent Relative To The USD In 7 Years Switzerland has remained independent of the European Union and does not use the EUR. Instead, it uses the Swiss Franc (CHF). The CHF actually strengthened greatly relative to the USD during the Great Recession, but the trend reversed in 2011. There was a rapid devaluation of the CHF relative to the USD from 0.76 CHF per USD to 0.94 CHF per USD during 2011. In The 7 years since then, the CHF has roughly five percent inflation relative to the USD and sits at 0.99 CHF per USD currently. That being said, it cannot be forgotten that the USD itself is experiencing 2.5 percent inflation per year, so even countries that have low inflation rates relative to the USD have a significant inflation rate overall. India Has Seen 79 Percent Inflation Relative to USD Since the Great Recession Began India has the sixth highest GDP in the world at $2.6 trillion, and the second highest population at 1.34 billion. Since the Great Recession began, the Indian Rupee (INR) has gone from 39.18 per USD to 70.14 INR per USD, a 79 percent inflation relative to the USD in 11 years. Unfortunately, India is slowly making Bitcoin more illegal and could fully outlaw it, so citizens may have to break the law in the future in the event that inflation accelerates and Bitcoin becomes a preferred way to store money. Indonesia Has 76 Percent Inflation Relative to the USD in Seven Years Indonesia has a population of 265 million, not far behind the United States, but its GDP is 20 times less than the United States at $1 trillion. Part of the reason Indonesia’s economy is weaker may be that the native fiat currency, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) has gone from 8,250 per USD in 2011 to 14,550 IDR per USD currently. This is 76 percent inflation relative to the USD in 7 years, around the same rate as India. However, Indonesia has banned Bitcoin as of 2018, which would make it difficult for citizens to use Bitcoin in the event inflation spirals out of control. Brazil Has 152 percent Inflation Relative To USD In Past Seven Years, Despite Being the Strongest Economy In South America Brazil has the most powerful economy in South America with a $2 trillion GDP. However, South America as a whole is experiencing out of control hyperinflation, and Brazil seems to be feeling the effects. The Brazilian Real (BRL) has gone from 1.55 per USD in 2011 to 3.91 BRL per USD currently. This is 152 percent inflation relative to the USD in 7 years. There does not appear to be any inflation safe haven in South America, and this could make South America a Bitcoin adoption hotspot. Venezuela Has Ridiculous Inflation Around One million percent Per Year; Bolivar Collapsing The end game of fiat currency inflation, if left unchecked, is currency collapse. A classic example of currency collapse is the situation in Venezuela, where the Cafe Con Leche Index suggests 400,000 percent inflation per year, although if a shorter term average is used it is 1 million percent per year or more. It would be shocking if the native fiat currency of Venezuela, the Sovereign Bolivar (VES), is still usable one year from now. Bitcoin is legal in Venezuela, and there is plenty of news which indicates people are abandoning the VES for Bitcoin. South Korea Has Zero Inflation Relative to the USD South Korea is considered a powerful economy relative to most of the world, with a GDP of $1.5 trillion despite the country’s small size. The South Korean Won (SKW) has essentially zero inflation relative to the USD long term aside from an exchange rate shock during the 2008 Great Recession. That being said, inflation is still a reality in South Korea since the USD has average inflation of 2.5 percent per year. Australia Has 53 Percent Inflation Relative to the USD in Seven Years Australia essentially has a continent to itself, but it is not isolated from the global fiat inflation crisis. The AUD actually strengthened massively versus the USD from 2001 to 2011. However, the trend reversed, and the exchange rate has gone from 0.93 AUD per USD in 2011 to 1.42 AUD per USD currently. This is 53 percent inflation relative to the USD in seven years. Israel Has Zero Inflation Relative To USD Long Term Israel is in the Middle East but does not have strong connections to the economy of the rest of the Middle East and, apparently, a different monetary policy than most of the rest of the world. Israel is only comparable to the United States, South Korea, and perhaps Switzerland when it comes to fiat currency since the Israeli New Shekel (ILS) has practically zero inflation relative to the USD long term although there are shorter term oscillations. Like the other countries listed with zero USD relative inflation, inflation still exists because the USD itself is inflating. In total, there are 180 fiat currencies in the world, and here, we’re covering just 16 of them. We could keep going, but the trend is already clear. Even in major countries with powerful economies, inflation has become a serious issue, with some major countries experiencing 50-200 percent inflation relative to the USD over the past decade, and those numbers don’t even take in the 2.5 percent per year USD inflation underlying them. It is possible that worldwide fiat inflation will accelerate due to the growing global debt crisis. That’s especially true if an economic recession occurs since that would force a rapid increase in money printing. So we’re in a global situation that needs to be actively monitored. Even if the status quo is maintained long term, most of the world’s population cannot realistically save money for the future because it’s going to lose value over time. This is a major shift from our parents’ generation when saving money was the smart thing to do. The good news is Bitcoin is waiting on the sidelines. It’s ready to become the global currency if fiat currency collapses worldwide. Even if fiat does not totally collapse, perhaps once Bitcoin matures and becomes more stable, it will be a good option for saving money long term since its value is independent of fiat inflation.
I was tipped Nano, what's next? Congrats on receiving your first Nano tip! The first thing you should do is move your Nano to your own, secure wallet for safe keeping. This will only take 5-10 minutes. -- Setting up your wallet There is a number of wallets available that support Nano but we recommend: IOS: Natrium or Canoe Android: Natrium or Canoe PC/Web: Brainblocks Wallet Remember to carefully store your seed phrase during the wallet signup process. If you lose this seed you may lose access to your Nano. We recommend writing it down in multiple locations for additional peace of mind. -- Withdrawing your Nano from the Tip-bot Now that you have your wallet set-up you will need to PM the tip bot, u/nano_tipper to instruct it on where to send your funds. To withdraw your Nano, you should PM the bot the following:
send [amount of Nano] [your address]
Where the amount is the total value of the tips you have received ( You can PM the bot, "balance" if you do not know this) and the address is your wallet address, which you can find in the wallet app you have just downloaded, usually under "Receive" or "My Account" pages. e.g:
If you have any problems with this step, leave a comment below, visit the tip-bot documentation or official subreddit. -- What to do with your Nano Once you have your Nano in your own wallet, it's up to you what you want to do with it. Like any currency, you can save it, spend it or sell it: ---- > Spending Nano Like any currency, Nano is meant to be spent! and with zero fees & instantaneous transactions there is no better method to buy the products / services you love. Currently there are a number of things you can purchase with Nano, including: Games, gift-cards, hotel stays, in-game currency, gambling, takeaway food and even pay in-store in certain locations. List of stores accepting Nano Alternatively you can signup for Wirex and within 3-5 days receive a Visa debit card capable of spending Nano at any of millions of physical locations or online stores worldwide in which Visa is accepted. How does paying with Nano compare to other popular payment methods?
---- > Selling Nano You may wish to sell your Nano for your local currency (USD/EUGBP etc.) or exchange it for another cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin. This is easy to do and should only take an hour even for someone new to Nano. To sell your Nano for a local / fiat currency, there are a number of services you can use, such as the following: Sell to USD: Kraken, Coingate Sell to EUR:Wirex, Kraken, Bitvavo, Coingate Sell to GBP:Wirex Other: Wirex (AUD, HKD, JPY, CAD) To sell your Nano in exchange for a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, we recommend the following: BTC: Binance, Kucoin ETH: Binance, Kucoin USDT: Binance Nollar: Txbit Full list of exchanges -- More information / Need help? For more information and/or help on moving/using/selling Nano, you can turn to the helpful folks on the official subreddit, nanocurrency or the official Nano Discord. --- --- --- What is Nano worth? At the time of posting, 1 Nano = $1.02 USD but you can check the current price here as it will fluctuate over time. --- --- --- What is Nano? Nano is a digital currency for the real world - the fast and free way to pay for everything in life. It features instant transactions, zero fees and is infinitely scalable. Gone are the days of complicated and energy-inefficient transactions - Nano is green and easy to use. --- --- --- What is Nano For Good? Nano For Good is a community-run (initially by three community members) initiative to help better promote Nano, fund Nano-based projects and support helpful community posts. With 45,000 Nano in our fund and over 18,000 Nano distributed & tipped to date. Follow our progress here: https://nanocrawler.cc/exploreaccount/xrb_3cnhdppkx46f9jnagbizhxo84zjfp17tznpcf6x9q47jkujjqbq48aag5fid
The Dow fell 200.23, or 0.78%, to 25,473.23 , the Nasdaq lost 84.46, or 1.13%, to 7,421.46 , and the S&P 500 declined 22.52, or 0.81%, to 2,748.93. The S&P 500 lost 0.8% on Thursday, as a negative economic outlook from the European Central Bank (ECB) helped fuel growth concerns and profit-taking interest. Thursday's risk-off mindset was made apparent by the underperformance of cyclical sectors and the flight-to-safety trade in the U.S. Treasury market where the 10-yr yield dropped six basis points to 2.64%. There was little in the way of a catalyst, so stocks continued to endure their worst weekly performance of the year. The Dow and S&P finished lower for the seventh time in the past eight days. Investors may have been looking forward to tomorrow’s monthly jobs data, but they are also growing weary waiting for news on the trade talks with China despite the next scheduled meeting not occurring until the end of the month. A technical violation of the S&P 500's and Nasdaq Composite's 200-day moving averages also contributed to some selling interest; both closed below that key technical level. 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower with consumer discretionary (-1.4%), financials (-1.1%), and information technology (-0.9%) leading the retreat. Conversely, the utilities sector (+0.3%) was the lone group to finish higher. In the U.S., initial jobless claims fell 3,000 to 223,000 in the week ended March 2. Q4 productivity grew at a 1.9% pace, which was a little firmer than expected. In Trump news, CNBC reported that Michael Cohen, former lawyer and fixer for U.S. President Donald Trump, has filed a lawsuit against the Trump Organization, alleging his former company has filed to pay "fees and costs" owed to him. TSLA was in focus following two separate reports, including one from CNBC saying that securities lawyers are claiming that CEO Elon Musk could face large fines and potential suspension as CEO for recent activity on Twitter that federal authorities said violated his September 29 agreement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, Bloomberg reported that the Pentagon is reviewing Musk's federal security clearance after he smoked marijuana on Joe Rogan's podcast in September. TSLA shares gained AH after a new filing showed a loan worth around $500M for use in China. AGN said a new experimental treatment for major depression failed in three late-stage studies, and the drugmaker added that it was "deeply disappointed" in the results. David Tepper's Appaloosa hedge fund, which has been pressuring the board of Allergan for changes, said "this latest fiasco" should "make apparent to all that the company's 'Open Science' business model is broken." Shares of Allergan closed 4% higher. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the SEC is investigating whether the multi-tiered pricing system used by stock exchanges, including Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Nasdaq (NDAQ), favors big brokers at the expense of smaller ones. In Europe, the ECB held its key interest rates unchanged and said it now expects the key rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, which is later than its prior guidance for no change until at least this summer. The ECB also said a new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or "TLTRO-III," will be launched, starting in September 2019 and ending in March 2021, that "will help to preserve favorable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy." The timing served as a reinforcement of the concern that the global economy is weakening and that the U.S. market has gotten ahead of itself pricing in a more upbeat growth outlook that isn't being corroborated with falling earnings estimates. Among the noteworthy gainers was YEXT, which rose 10% after it reported quarterly results and said it plans to hire over 200 employees in Germany over the next five years. Also higher after reporting quarterly results was GWRE, which gained 4%. Among the notable losers was WBA which fell 2.1% on concerns over potential increased regulatory pressures after the Food and Drug Administration called the company the top violator among pharmacies illegally selling tobacco products to minors. Among the notable losers after reporting quarterly results were TWI and BURL, which fell 22% and 12%, respectively. Also lower was KR, which fell 10% after the grocery store operator reported worse than expected sales and profits for the fourth quarter and gave lower than expected fiscal year guidance. Shares in Asia were mixed on Thursday following a third consecutive day of losses on Wall Street as investors sought developments on the state of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Meanwhile, U.S. tensions with China reached new heights as Chinese tech giant Huawei filed a lawsuit against the U.S. on Thursday. European stocks retreated, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.4%.
The euro fell sharply against the dollar Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) unveiled a series of market-friendly policies amid a slew of rising risks.
EUUSD: -1.1% to 1.1184
GBP/USD: -0.7% to 1.3074
USD/CNH: +0.3% to 6.7340
USD/JPY: -0.2% to 111.57
U.S. Treasuries saw a continuation of their recent strength on Thursday, registering solid gains across the curve. Treasuries started the cash session on a modestly higher note and accelerated their advance after the European Central Bank released a dovish statement, which served as an acknowledgement of slowing growth in the eurozone. It was not a surprise that the ECB made no changes to its interest rate corridor, but the central bank also said that it intends to keep rates at their current levels throughout 2019, which is about three months longer than what was stated in its previous guidance.
2-yr: -5 bps to 2.46%
3-yr: -6 bps to 2.44%
5-yr: -6 bps to 2.44%
10-yr: -6 bps to 2.64%
30-yr: -5 bps to 3.03%
Oil prices rose in choppy trade on Thursday, as the market continues to draw support from ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against exporters Venezuela and Iran.
Metals Settlement Prices:
Apr gold settled today's session $1.20 lower (-0.1%) at $1286.35/oz
Mar silver settled today's session $0.05 lower at $15.04/oz
Mar copper settled $0.01 lower (-0.3%) at $2.91/lb
Agriculture Settlement Prices:
May corn settled $0.07 lower (-1.9%) at $3.65/bushel
May wheat settled $0.12 lower (-2.7%) at $4.38/bushel
May soybeans settled $0.12 lower (-1.3%) at $9.02/bushel
Energy Settlement Prices:
Apr crude oil futures rose $0.36 (+0.6%) to $56.61/barrel
Apr natural gas settled $0.03 higher (+1.1%) at $2.87/MMBtu
Mar RBOB gasoline settled $0.01 higher (+0.6%) at $1.80/gallon
Mar heating oil futures settled $0.01 lower (-0.5%) at $2.01/gallon
Cryptocurrency markets have recorded moderate gains and losses on the day, with Binance Coin (BNB) being the major gainer on the day. The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) started the day around $3,901, subsequently reaching its intraday high of $3,938.
Bitcoin: $3,928.99 (24hr: +0.68%)
Ethereum: $138.84 (24hr: +0.38%)
Ripple: $0.31 (24hr: -0.54%)
Russell +13.0% YTD
Nasdaq +11.9% YTD
Spoos +9.7% YTD
Dow +9.2% YTD
COST Q2 Rev $35.40Bln Est 35.68Bln, Q2 EPS $2.01 vs $1.69 exp. Up 4%
EB Q4 EPS $(0.17) Misses $(0.13) Estimate. Down 20%
investors will receive the Employment Situation Report for February and the Housing Starts and Building Permits Report for January on Friday. Summaryscrapedfromtheinterweb.Took0.18seconds.
The Bitcoin marketplace is expanding significantly, and taking along with it the entire cryptocurrency market. Apart from coders and developers who enter the ecosystem through the tech gateway, every other user in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space finds entry through cryptocurrency exchanges or over-the-counter (OTC) market places. Cryptocurrency exchanges have been around for a couple of years now, and represent one of the initial Bitcoin marketplaces to find major adoption within the industry. This served as the ideal points to buy Bitcoin, sell Bitcoin, and sometimes find out the actual price of Bitcoin. Years have passed and the cryptocurrency marketplace has evolved. Newer ways of doing things have been made available in order to accommodate the diversified needs of members of the community. OTC secondary markets are providing an alternative means of entering the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency marketplace. The market provides a different kind of liquidity and addresses certain custodial concerns in the cryptocurrency marketplace. Many platforms exist today that offer OTC services, however, a few have stood out in the kind of services that they offer to members of the cryptocurrency community. Here are our top 10 OTC marketplace:
IBC is an exclusive OTC cryptocurrency marketplace that provide liquidity for only ultra high networth individuals and institutions seeking to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. The kind of service offered by IBC is referred to as OTC Dark Pool (ODP). The platform offers clients the opportunity to trade larger blocks without moving the market price, discreet access to diverse asset classes not listed on standard exchanges, and cost effective method for trading in the financial markets. Among other services.
B2C2 is a cryptocurrency market maker that focuses on providing the much needed liquidity in the online marketplace. The London-based platform bridges the gap between traditional financial infrastructure and the cryptocurrency market. The OTC platform provides liquidity for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple and Ethereum Classic in USD, GBP, EUR, JPY, SGD, AUD, CAD, CHF.
The Vertex platform provides liquidity for all sorts of digital tokens even those that are yet to be listed, but have been researched by the team and cleared as potentially viable projects. The platform allows unlimited purchases using bank transfers and even allows users to make purchases for as low as $5.
SFOX offers users strong liquidity as well as competitive prices and acts as a single point of access to global cryptocurrency markets. The name stands for San Francisco Open Exchange, and the platform works with both individual traders and funds. Since opening its doors in 2015, the platform has had over 175 000 traders, seen $11 billion in transactions. SFOX utilizes over twenty exchanges to ensure they give the best price.
Octagon Strategy is currently the largest brokerage platform in Asia. The platform is also high networth based on their trading capital limits, hence they are regarded as an institutional focused platform. The platform specializes in algorithm trading capabilities and offers personalized bespoke services for clients.
Hong Kong based CoinCola is a robust platform that offers both decentralized trading support and OTC services. With the belief that blockchain technology will be providing secure banking and payment solutions in the future, the platform’s mission it to connect everyone to the new digital asset economy.
This is a decentralized liquidity platform that aims at improving asset liquidity and bringing more people into the blockchain industry. OTCBTC’s primary function during transactions between traders is to monitor the process by utilizing a strict KYC procedures and a fair scoring system to ensure a safe and convenient trading environment.
Genesis Trading is an OTC platform strictly for institutional cryptocurrency traders. The platform provides liquidity for a plethora of cryptocurrencies in an online marketplace. The platform is regulated by FINRA and SEC, and permits a minimum transaction of $75,000. The platform does not at any point hold asset custody on behalf of trading counterparties, and AML/KYC verification are compulsory for eligibility, in addition to other requirements.
3 Stablecoins Enterprise Executives Need To Know And Why
img The digital asset space is undergoing a transformation and is trying to adapt to new and wider interest from large non-financial companies like Facebook, Samsung, Walmart, BMW, Shell and Nestle. Those companies, along with large financial services institutional players like J.P. Morgan, UBS and Fidelity, create enormous demand for tradable assets running on both public and private blockchains. These non-financial companies are usually less risk-averse than are the experienced traditional finance institutions. Thus, to embrace the new technology, they must rely on stable, reliable and scalable instruments like stablecoins. These new assets are ideally suited to service the expanding payments industry, a primary blockchain use case, and digital assets exchanges. Having price stability when trading and exchanging digital assets is important and effectively creates additional channels for global remittance as well as better price efficiency. But what are stablecoins in a nutshell? They are digital assets designed to have a stable value and extremely low volatility. Usually, they are backed by fiat currency – in most cases, the US dollar, digital assets or a physical commodity like gold or silver. There are projects that aim to completely remove the need for physical collateral and that rely on algorithms to dynamically adjust supply. The goal is that the price should not drastically fluctuate at any moment in time. Recently, several interesting stablecoin projects came out, and they are pushing the boundaries of digital assets. For example, the NYC-based exchange Gemini is issuing GUSD but also applying for an ATS (Alternative Trading System) license, which will create a unique opportunity for the GUSD to reach newly tokenized assets and private placements. Another two projects coming from the corporate world are JPM Coin, run by the powerhouse J.P. Morgan, and Fnality’s Utility Settlement Coin, which is backed by a plethora of banks like UBS, BNY Melon, Barclays and HSBC. Both seem to have the same aims, a similar reach and the same potential customers. It will be interesting to see if they cooperate at some point.
One of the most important benefits of stablecoins is that, if widely adopted by a large number of crypto exchanges, they create an opportunity for price hedging and risk management that is several times cheaper than hedging versus fiat. Currently, the most used in trading stablecoin is Tether. The USDT is pegged to the US dollar and widely used to create crypto markets on more than 25 of the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges. Founded in 2014 by the founders of the Bitfinex exchange, Tether is now the sixth most liquid crypto asset, with a market cap of $3.9 billion. The asset is available mostly on crypto exchanges that don’t have the New York-based BitLicense and reside mostly outside the US. img Recently, Tether was in the news when the New York Attorney General started a case against Bitfinex and its Hong Kong founding company iFinex for using Tether reserves to mask a missing $850 million. Strangely, this high-profile investigation had minimal effect on Tether’s stability. It dropped to $0.85 but recovered to its usual dollar parity of $0.99 – $1.01. Being vital to the crypto trading ecosystem, Tether aims to be as widely available as possible. It is available on numerous networks like OMNI (Bitcoin), ERC20 (Ethereum) and Tron. To get a sense of how fragile everything is, last week Poloniex wanted to move $50 million between networks. However, instead of printing the needed amount, it issued $5 billion in new tethers, which surprised the whole market. Eventually, it was made clear that this was an issue with the decimals, or what the trading world knows as “fat fingers”. img Why it is important: Considered by many to be the main driver behind the bull run of Bitcoin’s price, Tether is vital for the crypto community because it is widely spread and adopted by exchanges. It makes up 75% of the total Bitcoin trading market, so it is also regarded as probably the biggest liability in the industry. Many experienced traders are wondering what would happen to the Bitcoin price and volatility if USDT availability is restricted. The interested parties will watch closely on July 29th, which marks the next appearance in the New York courtroom.
Facebook Libra Coin
The stablecoin that has taken all the attention lately comes from Facebook and is a vital instrument in the Libra Association’s plan for its new global payment infrastructure. Facebook’s grand vision is to establish a global payment network among the 18 million merchants on its platform and among its 2.6 billion users. Interestingly, the first companies invited to the Libra Association formation all seem familiarly related; well, you don’t start something that big with complete strangers, do you? Maybe the overall goal is to replicate the WeChat/Tencent model in the western world but instead of using CNY, Libra plans to use a basket of low-volatility assets (bank deposits and government securities) denominated in multiple currencies like USD, GBP, EUR and JPY. Last week, its co-creator, David Marcus, was in front of the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee, answering tough questions about regulation, trust and privacy. Generally, the Senate and Congress were supportive of the innovation and technology direction that will position the US as the leader in payments. However, they remain highly skeptical of the governance and execution of the Libra project in relation to handling data privacy. With fresh memories of 2008’s financial crisis, most members of Congress were asking themselves, “What will happen if Libra goes down and we have to bail it out?” Which leads to the question: How do you bail out the finances of 2.6 billion people? Another concern is the fact that the governing body of the Libra Association is being established in Switzerland. This creates the possibility of regulatory arbitrage between US and Swiss laws. For example, securities lawyers in the US might consider the Libra token to be a security, which might not be the case for their Swiss colleagues. With all the signs of ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) or Money Market funds, this can’t be too far. The Libra stablecoin reserve will grow based primarily on two sources: the investors who will initially buy the Libra Investment Token ($LIT) and any other retail users who would convert any type of fiat to use the payment network. In comparison to another stablecoin issued by a large corporation (J.P. Morgan’s coin), the Libra carries a different sentiment. When J.P. Morgan announced its JPMC, nobody reacted too harshly. Of course, J.P. Morgan doesn’t have the same privacy issues that Facebook does and is generally known to do well in exactly this: banking services with currencies. An interesting use for the Libra network, once live, will be to serve as the Layer 2 network to permissionless protocols like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This way, the open and trustless networks can communicate/exchange value and assets with the Libra permissioned stablecoin. Why it is important: Libra is moving waters in DC. This last week, the President tweeted, US Treasury Department Secretary Steven Mnuchin held a press conference and two days were spent in Washington with the Senate and Congress. One thing is clear: cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and blockchain received prime-time attention. In terms of what comes out of Libra, only time will tell. The sentiment is that it will be heavily regulated, maybe closer to being a bank. Thus, the Libra token will look like CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency).
Building on the Ethereum protocol, the team at MakerDao created Dai to be a stable and decentralized currency fueling the new wave of DeFi (Decentralized Finance) applications. It uses an instrument known as Collateralized Debt Position (CDP), which allows you to lock your Ether assets into their smart contract and receive a loan denominated in Dai from the MakerDao system. In essence, the Dai is pegged to the US dollar but backed by Ether. Having Dai on the Ethereum protocols enables many financial services applications which otherwise wouldn’t exist due to the cryptocurrencies’ high volatility. Having Dai issuance and usage completely open is key to trustless financial services. Currently, many discussions are taking place about the protocol stability fee. This is the interest rate, currently at 20.5%, that all users must pay back to the system when closing their CDP positions. One might argue that this is too high and the current CDPs are overcollateralized. It seems like this is true. The current collaterization ratio is around 390%. For $81 million in debt, there is $320 million in collateral. img The Dai is an important instrument in the DeFi ecosystem built on Ethereum. Currently, it is being used on protocols like dYdX, enabling decentralized margin trading; 0x Protocol, the open-source marketplace for crypto tokens; Uniswap, the exchange for swapping ERC20 tokens; Dharma, the open protocol for building apps that allow for the borrowing and lending of digital assets; and many more. There are three main issues of which Dai users must be aware: Why it is important: Nevertheless, piece by piece, the Open Finance infrastructure, with stablecoins at its core, is being built and is “eating up financial services” as we know them. Slowly but surely, all the existing financial tools will have their own open sources and trustless tokenized equivalents. A growing concern about stablecoins is how they could be classified by agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). For example, Basis’s stablecoin, despite raising $133 million, couldn’t escape the SEC classification as a security and had to shut down. Depending on how one reads the current regulation, one could classify the stablecoins as "swaps" under the CFTC regulation or as "demand notes" under the SEC. If you talk to experienced securities lawyers, the answer is always “it depends”. Still, similar to other markets in which we saw interesting and innovative financial instruments, not all stablecoin projects will survive. The winner will be the one with the most user adoption, highest volumes, largest liquidity and lowest volatility. Last but not least, it should operate within an approved regulatory framework which will guarantee exchange listings and wider organic exposure. It will be interesting to see if Facebook’s Libra receives regulatory approval, as this might pave the way for the long-awaited Bitcoin ETF. img
The Dow fell 351.98, or 1.49%, to 23,323.66, the Nasdaq lost 147.08, or 2.17%, to 6,636.83 , and the S&P 500 declined 39.20, or 1.54%, to 2,506.96. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% on Wednesday in what was a tale of two trading sessions. The first part of the day was governed by a sense of hope that the Federal Reserve would provide the stock market with a dovish-minded perspective on the interest rate outlook. The second part of the day, which began at 2:00 p.m. ET (the time of the FOMC announcement) was governed by a sense of disappointment that the FOMC, and Fed Chair Powell, didn't deliver on the market's wishes. The S&P 500, up as much as 1.5% at its high for the day, sold off in the wake of the FOMC announcement, setting a new low for the year (2488.96) before bouncing slightly in closing action to end the day at 2506.96. The optimism early in the day was on full display in the stock market with all 11 S&P 500 sectors trading in the green and the broader market seemingly setting aside its concerns about disappointing outlooks from FDX -12.2% and MU -7.9%, both of which attributed earnings warnings to weaker-than-expected demand. The battered financial (-1.3%) and energy (-1.3%) sectors assumed a leadership position in the early going, yet they rolled over with the rest of the market following the Fed's interest-rate decision and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. In terms of the Fed decision, the target range for the fed funds rate was increased by 25 basis points to 2.25% to 2.50%, as most expected it would be, and the so-called dot-plot was revised to show a median projection for two rate hikes in 2019, versus three previously. That wasn't altogether surprising either; nonetheless, it still appeared hawkish relative to the zero rate hikes currently expected by the fed funds futures market. Selling interest picked up noticeably right after the FOMC directive was released and then it kicked into a higher gear during Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Some of Mr. Powell's more nettlesome talking points for the market were that (1) policy does not need to be accommodative now and that he doesn't believe the current policy is restrictive, and (2) he does not see the Fed altering its approach to balance sheet normalization and sees the preferred policy method being use of the fed funds rate. Every sector was driven lower after the Fed decision and they all ended the day in negative territory with losses ranging from 0.2% (utilities) to 2.2% (consumer discretionary). In other news, Washington D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine is suing FB for "failing to protect its users' data, enabling abuses like one that exposed nearly half of all District residents' data to manipulation for political purposes during the 2016 election.". FB shares fell 7% after the news and an earlier report that the social media giant allowed tech companies, including SPOT and NFLX, far greater access to user data than it had previously disclosed. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported that MO is close to a deal to acquire a 35% stake in e-cigarette startup Juul Labs at a roughly $38B valuation. Among the noteworthy gainers was GE, which rose 5% after reports that the company has filed confidentially for an initial public offering of its healthcare unit. Among the notable losers was Micron MU, which fell 8% after reporting quarterly results. Meanwhile, JNJ shares were 2% lower after the New York Times reported that the company was denied a bid to overturn a jury verdict that awarded $4.69B to 22 women who blamed their ovarian cancer on asbestos in the company's baby powder and talc products. Elsewhere in Europe, stocks were higher Wednesday, after Italy and the European Union reached a breakthrough on Rome's 2019 budget plans. The widely anticipated trading debut of SoftBank Corp, the mobile unit of Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group, ended in disappointment. The company's shares closed 14.5 percent lower than its initial public offering price of 1,500 yen ($13.36). It was the most heavily-traded stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
The dollar came off its lows but remained weaker overall on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's guidance on its tightening cycle was less dovish than expected, even though it forecast fewer interest rate hikes than it had in September.
EUUSD: +0.2% to 1.1378
GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.2625
USD/CNH: +0.3% to 6.9011
USD/JPY: -0.1% to 112.40
The sell-off in the stock market prompted a flight to safety in U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields lower. The yield curve also flattened with the Fed-sensitive 2-yr yield losing two basis points to 2.64%, and the benchmark 10-yr yield losing five basis points to 2.78%.
2-yr: -2 bps to 2.64%
3-yr: -3 bps to 2.62%
5-yr: -3 bps to 2.63%
10-yr: -5 bps to 2.78%
30-yr: -6 bps to 3.02%
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, recovering somewhat from a sharp sell-off during the previous session, after U.S. data showed strong demand for refined products. Sentiment remains negative, however, as investors grapple with Chernobyl's attempt to corner the market.
WTI crude: +3.7% to $48.28/bbl
Gold: +0.2% to $1256.30/ozt
Copper: +1.9% to $2.71/lb
Cryptocurrencies have experienced a sudden and unexpected price surge, following months of market decline.
Bitcoin: $3,769.68 (24hr: +5.58%)
Ripple: $0.35 (24hr: +7.02%)
Ethereum: $103.62 (24hr: +8.84%)
Nasdaq -3.9% YTD
Dow -5.7% YTD
S&P 500 -6.3% YTD
Russell 2000 -12.3% YTD
Thoughts on FOMC
On the surface, the decision was in-line with expectations, as the FOMC increased the fed funds target rate range by 25 basis points to 2.25%-2.50%. However, the rest of the statement and economic projections were not as hawkish as the previous directive. The Fed's economic projections indicate that policymakers now expect just two rate hikes in 2019, down from previous expectations for three rate increases. The 2018 inflation forecast was lowered to 1.9% from 2.1% while the outlook for inflation in 2019 was lowered to 1.9% from 2.0%. The FOMC narrowed its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 2.3%-2.5% from 2.4%-2.7% estimated in September. The FOMC's median estimate of the neutral fed funds rate was reduced to 2.8% from 3.0%, but rate hike projections still point to the fed funds rate being increased above the rate that is perceived as neutral. Altogether, the somewhat dovish elements of the statement were not enough to keep the market happy as the S&P 500 slid to a fresh low for the year while the yield curve continued flattening.
TLRY enters $100 million joint venture with BUD to research non-alcoholic THC and CBD beverages in Canada
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Buy and pay for tokens (QKIP will accept payment in either Bitcoin, Ethereum or Fiat money (USD, AUD, GBP, EUR, JPY)
Receive and store the tokens (into a QKIP wallet created as part of the KYC process)
There are no restrictions on who can participate in the QKIP pre-sale where discounts of up to 50 per cent on the ICO price are available. Anyone who successfully completes the KYC process can immediately start buying QKIP Tokens. Completing the whitelist application is a simple, automated process which creates an email-verified registration with QKIP as well as a User-name and Password for managing your QKIP account. Once you have this log-in, you will be able to access the KYC form and all of the QKIP functionality QKIP’s KYC application will require a bit more information including uploading a scanned copy of personal identification (passport or driver’s licence etc.) so that the bona-fides of ICO applicants can be verified in accordance with regulatory obligations. Once an applicant has completed and submitted each form, the details will be reviewed, and a notification will be sent confirming their acceptance or rejection. With confirmation of a successful KYC application you will be immediately able to place pre-sale orders to gain the discounts on offer or buy tokens in the ICO. A unique QKIP wallet is automatically created for all successful KYC applicants. This wallet will store QKIP Tokens and record all transactions that are conducted through the account. This wallet is secure and personal. It can be accessed by the owner only. It holds all the tokens bought until such time when the QKIP Tokens can be traded. QKIP is unable to accept submissions or payments for tokens from exchange wallets or participants who have failed the KYC application process. Further information is available from the Crowd-sale page on the QKIP website. QKIP is coming. You can download the white paper here. qkip.io Say Hello to the ultimate certificate keeper ABOUT QKIP: The objective of the QKIP project is to be the ultimate certificate keeper. We will provide a platform, using Blockchain technology, that will store and verify the authenticity of each Certificate or Digital Badge in the ledger while validating the identities of both the recipient and the certification body that issues them.
USD (DXY) down 0.14%, EUR up 0.10%, GBP down 0.05%, JPY up 0.06%, CNY Onshore down 0.23%, CNH Offshore down 0.14%, AUD up 0.23%
VIX up 1.33% to 10.64
Gold up 0.02% to $1,323.57
Silver down 0.37% to $17.80
Copper down 1.24% to $294.40
WTI Crude up 0.65% to $49.62
Brent Crude up 0.34% to $55.35
Natural Gas down 0.10% to $3.06
Corn up 0.43% to $3.53/bu
Wheat up 0.51% to $4.46/bu
Bitcoin down 2.69% to $3,793.12
Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~0.0bps at 1.347%, 10yr yields are unch at 2.188% and 30yr yields are up ~0.5bps at 2.792%
Japan 10yr yields 0.020%, up ~1.6bps on the day
France 10yr yields 0.683%, up ~0.2bps on the day
Italy 10yr yields 2.044%, up ~1.4bps on the day
Spain 10yr yields 1.584%, up ~2.4bps on the day
Germany 10yr yields 0.394%, down ~0.4bps on the day
What’s happening this morning? Things are pretty quiet (once again). The China Aug eco data came in soft and that weighed on Asian equities and is placing mild pressure on Eurozone stocks and US S&P futures (S&P futures are down only 1-2 points). Most of the major Asian indices ended lower although there were some pockets of green: TPX -0.32%, NKY -0.29%, Hang Seng -0.42%, SHCOMP -0.38%, Taiwan +0.2%, KOSPI +0.74%, Australia - 0.1%, and India was flattish. Korea was bolstered by tech (Samsung Electronics +1.37%, Hynix +1.45%, LG Display +2.74%, etc.). The major Eurozone indices are trading off small; the SXPP basic resources index is down >1% off China but otherwise there aren’t any other major sources of softness while media and retail are upside standouts (retail is being helped by the Next PLC news). The SNB tweaked its FX language in a slightly more hawkish direction, calling the CHF “highly valued” instead of “significantly overvalued”. Overall the broader macro narrative isn’t shifting dramatically despite China (in fact some see a silver lining in the data as this could make the gov’t more inclined to pursue growth-friendly policies). There were a ton of tax articles in the US but the outlook for that topic remains unchanged (the GOP blueprint is due out during the week of 9/25). The week’s last major (scheduled) catalyst hits at 8:30amET this morning (US Aug CPI) while next week’s main focus is the FOMC decision (Wed 9/20; the messaging around a Dec hike may be more hawkish than the market currently assumes).
Calendar for Thurs 9/14 – the focus will be on the BOE rate decision (7amET), the US CPI for Aug (8:30amET), Thy God Emperor Trump ’s trip to Florida, some analyst meetings (ANSS and GKOS), earnings (JBL and ORCL after the close), and sell-side conferences (Goldman Communacopia, Morgan Stanley Laguna, and RBC Industrials). o US CPI Thurs morning – the latest leg of the SPX rally has been spurred by proreflation forces as risk sentiment welcomed firmer inflation numbers (in China, India, Sweden, and the UK). Thus the US CPI (due out Thurs morning 8/14 at 8:30amET) needs to be at least inline (the St is modeling headline +0.3% M/M and core +0.2% M/M) and mild upside would likely be a net positive. Too much inflation though risks unsettling sentiment and if the Thurs CPI causes 12/13 FOMC FF hike odds to spike back >50% that would likely be met w/equity pressure.
Calendar for Fri 9/15 – the focus will be on the Eurozone trade balance for Jul (5amET), the US Empire Manufacturing index for Sept (8:30amET), US retail sales for Aug (8:30amET), US industrial production for Aug (9:15amET), US Michigan confidence numbers for Sept (10amET), US business inventories for Jul (10amET), and sell-side conferences (Morgan Stanley Laguna).
Top Headlines for Thursday
Economic data/monetary policy recap for Thurs 9/14 – there was a lot of data out this morning. The China data was soft and as a result JPMorgan is revising lower Q3 GDP forecasts for the country (see the full note: http://bit.ly/2x226Wk). IP for Aug came in at +6% (vs. JPM and the St +6.6%), retail sales rose 10.1% (vs. JPM +10.2% and the St +10.5%), and FAI climbed 7.8% YTD as of Aug (vs. JPM +8.3% and the St +8.2%). We revise down our current quarter growth forecast to 6.2%q/q saar (previously 6.6%q/q saar), or 6.7%oya (previously 6.8%oya). Meanwhile, we maintain our 4Q17 forecast at 6.2%q/q saar (or 6.6% in yoy terms), and the full-year growth forecast stays unchanged at 6.8%. Elsewhere on the economic front, Australian jobs data for Aug was solid although the UR held steady at 5.6% (http://bit.ly/2jpRH3x) and Eurozone new auto registration growth accelerated in Aug to +5.6% (vs. +2.7% in Jul). The SNB tweaked its CHF language and said the recent weakening "is helping to reduce, to some extent, the significant overvaluation of the currency" (previously the SNB has lamented the CHF’s “significant overvaluation” http://bit.ly/2eXuwIC). ECB’s Jan Smets said Eurozone inflation appears to have bottomed out (http://nyti.ms/2f8nynT). Greece said it would exceed prior primary budget surplus targets for this year (http://reut.rs/2x2RxUq). o What Thy God Emperor Trump Can Do to Prevent the Next Crash – the Fed doesn’t do enough to restrain out-of-control prices for stocks, houses, and other assets. http://nyti.ms/2eX7IsC o Fed officials admit they’ve lost some inflation credibility – a Bloomberg article recounts recent Fed remarks about how the institution’s credibility on inflation has started to weaken at the margin. Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2y0yyru
Bipartisanship in Washington – can it last? Frustrated by the failure to pass repeal/replace, Thy God Emperor Trump has displayed a willingness to work w/Democrats. o Thy God Emperor Trump is extremely eager for a “win” after months of failure and if that requires him to work w/Democrats, so be it. “We learned this summer that keeping 50 or 52 Republicans (in the Senate) is not something that’s reliable,” Marc Short, Thy God Emperor Trump ’s liaison to Congress, told reporters this week. Reuters http://reut.rs/2x3yn0L o Thy God Emperor Trump prioritizes legislative wins over party purity – the new dynamic is creating uncertainty within the GOP ahead of the upcoming tax and budget battles. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2eWBspz o Fresh off striking a three-month fiscal deal with “Chuck and Nancy”, Thy God Emperor Trump agreed Wed night to work w/Democrats on a DACA/Dreamers compromise. Thy God Emperor Trump ’s outreach to Dems on immigration represents a “major political gamble” as this topic was the centerpiece of his campaign. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), an immigration hard-liner and early Thy God Emperor Trump supporter, wrote that if reports of a potential immigration deal are accurate, the president’s “base is blown up, destroyed, irreparable, and disillusioned beyond repair. No promise is credible” – Washington Post http://wapo.st/2y81heI
Taxes – Republicans are pushing forward w/an aggressive tax timeline (a blueprint is due out during the week of 9/25) but the overall plan remains inchoate. o “Thy God Emperor Trump urges quick action on tax plan that’s still in pieces” – the NYT notes that while there is a lot of eagerness for action on the tax front, Republicans are far from aligned on the details and a path through Congress isn’t apparent at the moment. NYT http://nyti.ms/2jpuApI o GOP “shudders” as Thy God Emperor Trump courts Dems on taxes – Republican leaders in Congress are pursuing a delicate tax strategy premised on passing a partisan bill and thus Thy God Emperor Trump ’s flirtation with “Chuck and Nancy” risks upending the effort. Politico http://politi.co/2h4gUfr o Thy God Emperor Trump signals openness to upper-income tax hikes in a bid to secure Democratic support - Thy God Emperor Trump on Wednesday expressed a willingness to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. Thy God Emperor Trump met w/lawmakers on Wed and “repeated his willingness to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans several times”– Roll Call http://bit.ly/2y724fS o How low could the corporate tax rate go? A new study finds that eliminating all corporate tax breaks could only move the rate from ~35% now down to 26% - Washington Post. http://wapo.st/2vU7zNy
Paul Ryan speculation heats up – his job as Speaker seems secure but people are beginning to talk – The Hill. http://bit.ly/2x3NlUm
Healthcare struggles to advance in Congress – a bipartisan initiative to pass legislative aimed at fixing the ACA (rather than replacing it) was dealt a setback on Wed as two groups of Senators released the details of diametrically opposed plans. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2waLtdO
Russia’s war games sparks NATO alarm – Russia and Belarus are holding massive war games in what will be the largest display of Russian military power since the end of the Cold War. NATO and the West in general are worried that Russia is moving far more troops into Belarus than it intends to withdraw, establishing a permanent military presence in the country. Some are concerned that Moscow will use the exercise as cover for a more aggressive act (such as when Russia used exercises in ’14 to prepare for its annexation of Crimea). NYT http://nyti.ms/2vUXBLV
Venezuela stops accepting USD for oil payments – the gov’t is telling oil traders that it will no longer receive or send payments in dollars – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2f7zsP9
Volatility spike coming? The NYT profiles a hedge fund positioning for a large spike in volatility. http://nyti.ms/2eWeJd5
Company-specific news from Thurs morning 9/14. There are a few notable items in Europe. Next PLC shares are the top performing stock in the SXXP after raising its full-year earnings guidance. GVC Holdings also has a post-earnings bid. GKN PLC is higher following mgmt. changes. Autoliv shares are spiking ~8% after the co said it would pursue a split. On the downside, Morrison Supermarkets is leading on the SXXP on the downside after reporting while Experian is getting hit following the credit agency sell-off in the US on Wed. Hermes shares are weak after the co warned that a strong euro would weigh on financial results (the Hermes news was discussed in this article http://bit.ly/2y7L0q7). Munich Re is holding in well despite issuing a profit warning related to the US hurricanes.
Company-specific news from Wed night 9/13. There weren’t any major micro headlines. Munich Re (right before the US close on Wed) said the US hurricanes could cause it to post a loss in CQ3 and miss prior full-year guidance. BZH said new home sales/closings may be down Y/Y in its FQ4 as a result of the hurricanes but its overall tone stayed sanguine. EMR reported Aug underlying orders up a relatively healthy 9% (although mgmt. said Harvey/Irma had a neg. impact on business results towards the end of Aug and into Sept). The White House formally blocked the LSCC buyout (which isn’t a shock as CFIUS had already recommended scrapping the transaction). THC is exploring options, including a sale, according to a WSJ article. UNFI posted small EPS upside and CDNS named a new CFO.
AAPL – iPhone carrier discounts muted following the 8/X introductions on Tues – wireless carriers during prior iPhone cycles have been extremely aggressive in offering promotions and discounts but this time around the industry is staying (relatively) disciplined. Deals for the iPhone 8, 8 Plus and X have been pared back from the deals offered for the iPhone 7 – Reuters http://reut.rs/2wrCpMR o Toshiba, AAPL – Apple may contribute ~$3B of equity towards Bain’s purchase of the Toshiba memory business. This could make Toshiba the largest deal in AAPL’s history (exceeding the $3B it paid for Beats) – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2y0FGUC
EQT, RICE – DE Shaw is pushing for EQT to complete the RICE deal but then wants to see the combined company pursue a break-up (this contrasts w/Jana which wants to see EQT call off the RICE deal all together) – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2vVe56N
ALV to pursue split – the co said it aims to split into two companies under a strategic review announced on Thursday. Reuters http://nyti.ms/2y7O8Cj
Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Sept 18
Calendar for the week of 9/18 – the main focus will be the FOMC decision (Wed 9/20). Balance sheet normalization is widely expected to commence coming out of this meeting but the bigger near-term wildcard will be messaging around a Dec hike (the Fed will likely suggest odds for a 12/13 hike that are higher than present market assumptions). The other big area of focus will be on the data front w/the flash PMI readings for Sept from Japan, Europe, and the US hitting Fri morning 9/22. The press will stay filled w/tax-related articles as Republicans gear up for publication of their blueprint (the GOP is set to unveil their tax plan during the week of Mon 9/25). The UN annual meeting kicks off in NYC on Tues 9/19 (Thy God Emperor Trump speaks 9/19); US officials will apparently hold talks on the sidelines of this event on the Iranian nuclear deal.
Calendar for Mon 9/18 – the focus will be on China’s Aug property prices (Mon morning), the US NAHB housing market index for Sept (10amET), analyst meetings (BA), and earnings (SCS after the close).
Calendar for Tues 9/19 – the focus will be on the German ZEW survey for Sept (5amET), opening day of the UN’s Generate Debate in NYC (Thy God Emperor Trump will speak this day at the UN), US eco data (Q2 current account, Aug housing starts, Aug import prices, and Aug building permits at 8:30amET), analyst meetings (AIR Canada, BA, BBY, BIG, and CARB), and earnings (APOG, AZO, and PGR pre-open and ADBE, AIR, ALOG, BBBY, and FDX after the close).
Calendar for Wed 9/20 – the focus will be on US existing home sales for Aug (10amET), the FOMC decision (2pmET press release/supplemental and 2:30pmET press conf.), analyst meetings (PPC), and earnings (GIS pre-open and MLHR after the close).
Calendar for Thurs 9/21 – the focus will be on the BOJ decision (Wed night/Thurs morning), the ECB economic bulletin (4amET), US FHFA home prices for Jul (9amET), the US Leading Index for Jul (9amET), the Eurozone consumer confidence numbers for Sept (10amET), and earnings (MANU pre-open and PSDO, YOGA after the close).
Calendar for Fri 9/22 – the focus will be on the Eurozone flash PMIs for Sept (4amET), the OPEC compliance meeting (Saudi Arabia could make a proposal to monitor exports in addition to production), the US flash PMIs for Sept (9:45amET), a few Fed speakers (Williams, George, and Kaplan), and earnings (FINL and KMX before the open).
Calendar for Sun 9/24 – the focus will be on the German elections.
Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months
US inflation – the Aug CPI will hit Thurs 9/14.
Russia military exercise in Belarus – 9/14-20.
UN meeting – the UN annual meeting begins Tues 9/19 in NYC (Thy God Emperor Trump speaks 9/19).
Fed meeting – decision out Wed Sept 20. There will be a press conf. and supplemental. The Fed is expected to announce commencement of balance sheet shrinkage at this meeting.
BOJ decision – Thurs morning 9/21
Brexit – May could deliver an important Brexit speech around Thurs 9/21.
Flash PMIs for Sept – Fri 9/22
OPEC/non-OPEC compliance meeting – Sept 22.
German elections – German federal election Sept 24.
US taxes – Republicans expected to publish tax plan during week of Mon 9/25.
Yellen delivers keynote at NABE conference in Cleveland. Tues 9/26. 12pmET.
US inflation – the Aug PCE will hit Fri 9/29.
Catalonia parliament independence vote – Sun 10/1.
China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
Autos – US Sept auto sales get reported Tues 10/3; Ford/F’s CEO will also be giving a strategic update on that same day (this will be the first major update from the new CEO at Ford).
Yellen delivers opening remarks at Community Banking conf. Wed 10/4. 3:15pmET.
ECB meeting minutes – Thurs 10/5.
WMT analyst meeting – Tues 10/10 (note that KR has an analyst meeting the next day, Wed 10/11).
Fed minutes – minutes from the 9/20 meeting will be released Wed 10/11. 2pmET.
Bank earnings – the CQ3 earnings season kicks off w/Citigroup and JPM Thurs morning 10/12 while BAC, PNC, and WFC all report Fri 10/13.
US inflation – the Sept CPI will hit Fri 10/13.
HON – the co will announce its portfolio review decision before earnings in Oct.
CQ3 earnings – the week of Mon 10/16 is the first busy week of the CQ3 reporting season.
Iran – Thy God Emperor Trump will certify whether Iran is complying w/the nuclear agreement around mid- Oct.
China - the National Congress of the Communist Party of China starts Oct 18.
China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning) – Thurs morning 10/19.
Flash PMIs for Oct – Tues 10/24
ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Oct 26. The ECB is expected to provide guidance on LSAP tapering at this meeting.
US Q3 GDP report – Fri 10/27
Fed meeting – decision Wed 11/1 (no press conf. or supplemental).
Thy God Emperor Trump trip to China – he is scheduled to visit China in November.
GE – the co will likely hold an analyst meeting in Nov at which it will provide a refresh of its long-term financial guidance.
OPEC meeting – the next formal OPEC leaders meeting is Nov 30 (a decision on extending the production agreement beyond Mar ’18 could be reached at this gathering).
US gov’t funding/debt ceiling – current legislation funds the gov’t and suspends the debt ceiling until 12/8 (the debt ceiling is unlikely to become binding again until “well into” 2018).
Fed meeting – decision Wed Dec 13. There will be a press conf. and supplemental.
ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Dec 14.
Tech Events – calendar of events coming up over the next few weeks
Goldman Communacopia Conf. Sept 12-14. NYC.
ANSS analyst meeting – Thurs 9/14.
JBL, ORCL earnings – Thurs night 9/14.
ADBE earnings – Tues night 9/19.
BBY, CARB analyst meeting – Tues 9/19
PSDO earnings – Thurs night 9/21
RHT earnings – Mon night 9/25
MU earnings – Tues night 9/26
UBNT analyst meeting – Tues 9/26
AMAT, PANW analyst meeting – Wed 9/27
ACN earnings – Thurs morning 9/28
SGH earnings – Thurs night 9/28
INTU analyst meeting – Tues 10/3
PAYX earnings – Tues morning 10/3
TTD analyst meeting – Wed 10/4
TECD, WDAY analyst meeting – Tues 10/10
BOX, HPQ analyst meeting – Thurs 10/12
Full catalyst list
Thurs Sept 14 – China retail sales, IP, and FAI for Aug (Wed night/Thurs morning)
Thurs Sept 14 – Eurozone auto registration figures for Aug. 2amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – SNB rate decision. 3:30amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – BOE rate decision. 7amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – US CPI for Aug. 8:30amET.
Thurs Sept 14 – analyst meetings: ANSS, GKOS, YUM
Thurs Sept 14 – earnings after the close: JBL, ORCL
Thurs Sept 28 – Eurozone confidence measures for Sept. 5amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – German inflation for Sept. 8amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – US Q2 data revisions (GDP, PCE, etc.). 8:30amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – US advance goods trade balance for Aug. 8:30amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – analyst meetings: AEE, AFL
Thurs Sept 28 – earnings before the open: ACN, MKC, MTN, RAD
Thurs Sept 28 – earnings after the close: SGH
Fri Sept 29 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
Fri Sept 29 – German jobs numbers for Sept. 3:55amET.
Fri Sept 29 – Eurozone CPI for Sept. 5amET.
Fri Sept 29 – US personal income/spending for Aug. 8:30amET.
Fri Sept 29 – US PCE for Aug. 8:30amET.
Fri Sept 29 – Chicago PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
Fri Sept 29 – Michigan Confidence for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Sept 29 – analyst meetings: CMP
Sat Sept 30 – China NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)
Mon Oct 2 – China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
Mon Oct 2 – Eurozone manufacturing PMI for Sept. 4amET.
Mon Oct 2 – Eurozone unemployment rate for Aug. 5amET.
Mon Oct 2 – US manufacturing PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
Mon Oct 2 – US manufacturing ISM for Sept. 10amET.
Mon Oct 2 – US construction spending for Aug. 10amET.
Tues Oct 3 – Eurozone PPI for Aug. 5amET.
Tues Oct 3 – US auto sales for Sept.
Tues Oct 3 – analyst meetings: F/Ford (Ford CEO to host strategic update), INTU, SHW
Tues Oct 3 – earnings before the open: PAYX
Wed Oct 4 – Eurozone services PMI for Sept. 4amET.
Wed Oct 4 – Eurozone retail sales for Aug. 5amET.
Wed Oct 4 – RBI rate decision. 5amET.
Wed Oct 4 – US ADP jobs report for Sept. 8:15amET.
Wed Oct 4 – US services PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
Wed Oct 4 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Sept. 10amET.
Wed Oct 4 – Yellen delivers opening remarks at Community Banking conf. 3:15pmET.
Wed Oct 4 – analyst meetings: MNK, TTD
Wed Oct 4 – earnings before the open: MON, PEP
Wed Oct 4 – earnings after the close: RECN
Thurs Oct 5 – ECB meeting minutes. 7:30amET.
Thurs Oct 5 – US factory orders and durable goods for Aug. 10amET.
Thurs Oct 5 – analyst meetings: BKH, CLX, LUK
Thurs Oct 5 – earnings before the open: STZ
Thurs Oct 5 – earnings after the close: COST, YUMC
Fri Oct 6 – German factory orders for Aug. 2amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US jobs report for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug. 10amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US consumer credit for Aug. 3pmET.
Sat Oct 7 – China FX reserves for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)
Mon Oct 9 – China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
Mon Oct 9 – German industrial production for Aug. 2amET.
Mon Oct 9 – Columbus Day holiday in the US (equities will be open while fixed income is closed).
Tues Oct 10 – German trade balance for Aug. 2amET.
Tues Oct 10 – analyst meetings: TECD, WDAY, WMT
Tues Oct 10 – PG shareholder meeting
Wed Oct 11 – US JOLTs report for Aug. 10amET.
Wed Oct 11 – Fed minutes from the Sept 20 meeting (2pmET).
Wed Oct 11 – analyst meetings: KR
Wed Oct 11 – earnings before the open: FAST
Thurs Oct 12 – Eurozone industrial production for Aug. 5amET.
Thurs Oct 12 – US PPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 12 – analyst meetings: BOX, HPQ
Thurs Oct 12 – earnings before the open: C, JPM, Tata Consultancy.
Fri Oct 13 – China imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
Fri Oct 13 – US CPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US retail sales for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US Michigan Sentiment for Oct. 10amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US business inventories for Aug. 10amET.
Fri Oct 13 – analyst meetings: SAFM
Fri Oct 13 – European trading updates: Man Group
Fri Oct 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, PNC, WFC
Mon Oct 16 – China CPI/PPI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
Mon Oct 16 – Eurozone trade balance for Aug. 5amET.
Tues Oct 17 – Eurozone Sept auto registrations. 2amET.
Tues Oct 17 – German ZEW survey results for Oct. 5amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US import prices for Sept. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US industrial production for Sept. 9:15amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US NAHB housing index for Oct. 10amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US housing starts for Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US building permits fro Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US Beige Book. 2pmET.
Thurs Oct 19 – China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning)
Thurs Oct 19 – US Leading Index for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Oct 20 – US existing home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Mon Oct 23 – US Chicago Fed Activity Index for Sept. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 24 – Eurozone flash PMIs for Oct. 4amET.
Tues Oct 24 – US flash PMIs for Oct. 9:45amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US durable goods for Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US FHFA home price index for Aug. 9amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US new home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US wholesale inventories for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US advance goods trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US pending home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Oct 27 – US Q3 GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE for Q3. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 27 – US Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct. 10amET.
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Weekly GBP/JPY Forex signals, candlestick analysis and trading strategies. Covered topics include pivot points, candlestick pattern analysis, estimated price action and support & resistance for ... The British pound continues to struggle at the same level against the Japanese yen, as the ¥135 level has been crucial. ... Bitcoin Algo Trading on Deribit. BTCUSD Price Chart. Deribot 305 watching. Bitcoin Support & Resistance Analysis is a short video showing the analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) using various technical analysis techniques including support and resistance, market structure, and ... #GBP #JPY is trading near 134.72 at press time, representing a 0.12% gain on the day. . The pair is still trapped in a falling channel represented by trend lines connecting July 9 and July 13 ... The British pound has rallied again on Monday to rally against the Japanese yen, but at this point has not been able to break out to the upside. The 200 day EMA above continues offer quite a bit ...